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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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6 Jun, 6 tweets, 2 min read
There was published Government impact assessment at the time in late 2019 that detailed much of this stuff (thread linked) ... also a leak of a document from HMRC that also listed impact of new non tariff barriers within the UK created by the deal

leaked HMT document actually and included the phrase “highly disruptive to the NI economy” in relation to physical checks both ways (not all have so far materialised)... and that imports into NI were facing (in extra checks) “a tariff equivalent of 30%”

Typo - Tariffs equivalent ON 30% of purchases, is what the 2019 document said...
interesting question is whether these warnings and the actual impact assessment about consequences of deal for GB-NI commerce were ignored/ strategically downplayed at time, & subsequently been proven to be broadly correct, or accepted (quietly) & reality even more disruptive...
If the actual impact of the revised Protocol of the Brexit deal on GB-NI trade has been far more challenging than expected by those who negotiated it, it is worth noting that many of the new procedures have been subject to grace periods and are yet to be fully applied...
Interesting answer from solicitor general on this here…

And welcome back Kay!

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
5 Jun
Deal Done - historic agreement on multinational tax agreed at G7 finance meeting in London… quite a moment.
Just spoke to Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe here at G7 - I asked him if this was the end of Ireland’s years old business model said Ireland will continue to be competitive in the change that is coming” and he will continue to make case for legitimate tax competition
NEW US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the conclusion of this tax deal…
Says US will be first to return to pre pandemic output, and whole G7 have “fiscal space” to speed up recoveries and the conversation should be more “what more can we do now”…
Read 9 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
4 Jun
NEW:
Just spoke to French fin minister Bruno Le Maire at G7 in London.

We are “just 1mm away from an historic agreement” - says countries such as Ireland need to get “on board”.

Remaining sticking point - min tax rate, 15% “only a starting point” excl on @BBCNews channel soon
Le Maire: rate is “most tricky difficulty, and I think that if the negotiation is still underway, that's because we are still working on these really tricky points of the rate”..

“clearly 15% is only a starting point. And if it can be higher, it is better to have a higher level”
“we are spending a lot of public money to protect our economies against the consequences of COVID, and to have a quick and v strong economic recovery, but we need money, & we need new resources, I would think that these new resources are the right ones and useful for all of us.”
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
28 May
NEW:

Billions of pounds of British exports to the EU faced tariffs in first three months of UK-EU tariff free trade deal, according to a Trade Policy Observatory analysis, seen by the BBC, of the official EU27 data from actual customs declarations now required on UK-EU trade /1
FULL Story: This is an early study of “preference utilisation” using official data, and reflects a number of stories we have heard of companies simply paying the tariff if they are unable or it is too onerous to claim eligibility for the tariff-free deal bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
The TPO analysis concludes that £2.5 to £3.5 billion of British exports have faced tariffs so far, but the data for March is not yet complete. European sources said their internal data put it at €2.5bn -for reference GB-EU exports were £34bn (down from avg £44b Q1 18-20) /3
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
24 May
On inflation Bailey says the rise to below target 1.5% has been base effects, but there are hotspots for prices, reflecting global commodity prices, an unbalanced post covid recovery focussed on goods...

This is a “hump” that should come down, he say.
Bank of England’s Andy Haldane on inflation:
“There’s a whole list of [prices] going up at real pace.
It’s hard to find very much, goods or assets that aren’t going up right now. With the dishonourable exception of #Bitcoin”.
“The economy is recovering, but from a low base...
this is good news... It is getting back to normal. I wouldn’t call it a boom” BoE external member Michael Saunders
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
23 May
This was the first on record reference to “herd immunity”, unprompted, by a Sage adviser, in an interview with the BBC, on March 11th 2020. Interesting context for @dominic2306 claims, denied by Govt, that the late push to lockdown last year reflected actual strategy:
two different things here:

Was herd immunity “policy”? - easy to disprove, because it is a scientific description of a state.

Did “herd immunity” thinking influence a 2-3 wk delay in actual lockdown that cost tens thousand lives, & resulted in worse econ outcomes? That= real q
To be clear, the motivation as I understand it for some of those pushing a herd immunity approach was that the public would get bored of a premature lockdown, undermining its effectiveness, and that in any second wave having let virus spread in first, there would be immunity…
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 May
🇦🇺 🇬🇧
On the Australia trade deal rumpus...

Worth noting that its importance to Govt is especially elevated because the US deal really doesn’t seem to be a priority for Biden admin. See last wk response from USTR to Senator Portman: “v critical areas open, still quite a road”
Also the question specifically asked if USTR would ask to extend trade authority to finish UK deal - Tai did not say that, said objectives still being reviewed and “we are keeping our eye on” Northern Ireland after concerns from Congress, in relation to trade deal...
..no mention in bilateral readouts of conversations of trade ministers and PM-President, Queens Speech mentioned three areas to deepen trade ties, but not US..

prevention of last year’s moves to a quick trade deal under Trump could have put matters back years, beyond midterms...
Read 10 tweets

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