Human behavior is iterative; it doesn’t spontaneously appear out of thin air.
New desires grow out of pre-existing conditions: what we’ve done, wanted, and bought in the past.
Good ideas don’t emerge out of darkness; they’re built on an existing foundation.
There is a prevailing belief that “great founders create new innovations out of thin air.”
In truth, product ideas emerge from pre-existing human behavior.
You can convince people to switch from horses to cars by targeting the existing desire (fast, efficient transportation).
You gauge the strength of demand by the evidence of existing behavior:
How much effort are people applying right now to solve this problem?
How strong is the existing behavior?
How strong is the incentive for them to seek a solution?
The market is a brutal judge.
It doesn’t care how good your intentions are, how many customer interviews you did, how hard you worked on the design, how skilled you are at programming, or how prestigious your investors are:
customers will decide your final verdict.
You can gauge demand as you go along:
- observing existing customer behavior,
- noting shifts in the culture,
- being aware of economic tides,
- launching small trial balloons and seeing how people respond.
The key is to not get too far down the river if the signs are bad.
Nobody is insulated from these realities; even me!
This new project I’m investing in with @joshuaanderton will be judged by the market, and could fail.
I’m trying to increase our odds, but in business there are no sure bets.
"The market is so, so, so important. Market excuses poor ideas, poor execution, like just total ignorance. If you happen to luck into the correct market you can flail wildly and still get there." – @fulligin
In my 20s-30s all my followers were my age, but now I’m 40 and most of y’all are still 20-30s?
Folks in their 40s-50s have been making stuff on the internet since the early 90s, but soon we’ll all be working for 22 year-old billionaires who got rich minting NFTs and buying dogecoin. 😅
I just got access and tried to submit a new podcast RSS feed.
Here's how it went...
It took about 10+ hours before I was able to get access to my existing Apple Podcasts Connect account and see the podcasts I already had active on Apple Podcasts.
Overall, the new interface feels cleaner. 👍
For existing podcasters, the biggest improvement is Apple Podcasts' new analytics.
You can drill into each episode, and see where listener drop-off occurred.
Really helpful feedback if you're trying to optimize your show. 💯