Thread by @TomBollyky

Maximizing potential benefit of vaccine donations depends on doses going where they can do the"most good" but there's no consensus on where that would be

Murray @IHME_UW @RCReinerJr & I propose an approach that prioritizes epidemiology over geopolitics 1/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

This week's summit in Cornwall, UK should be the time when G7 leaders finally act on their promises to send surplus COVID-19 vaccine supplies to the many other countries where they remain scarce #G7UK

But how will those vaccine donations be allocated? 2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

COVAX has been criticized by @ZekeEmanuel @GovindPersad & others for its population-based allocation scheme that does not direct most of its early vaccine supplies to the settings at the greatest risk of otherwise having high COVID-19 death rates 3/
nytimes.com/2021/05/24/opi…

COVAX organizers argue ensuring each country can vaccinate ~20% of its people makes sense given uncertainty a/b where next surge or variant will occur

Yet donors may find it difficult to wait to respond to pleas from specific countries w/surging cases 4/
nytimes.com/2021/05/27/opi…

Nations donating COVID-19 vaccines bilaterally have
not done any better in prioritizing urgent health needs

See @samckiernan @serena_tohme and others in @ThinkGlobalHlth 5/
thinkglobalhealth.org/article/politi…

Without compelling metric of where greatest health benefit may be gained from donations, G7 policymakers are likely to split difference

Send some spare doses to COVAX’s population-based scheme

Send rest to allies, trade partners & strategic interests 6/

https://twitter.com/TomBollyky/status/1400481423967064070?s=20

Whether donated through #COVAX or bilaterally, spare COVID-19 vaccine doses should be allocated to reduce the most premature deaths

Although it's impossible to know for certain where future COVID deaths will occur, it is possible to anticipate impending needs in this pandemic 7/

Our @TheLancet analysis shows greatest needs are likely to be in those areas have received fewest COVID-19 vaccine donations so far:

Countries in Latin America, Central Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe and South Africa & Namibia 8/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

President Biden promised not to use donated doses “to secure favors from other countries” but to follow "science and the public health data”

This is a commitment that the USA should keep and other G7 nations should adopt

Here's how:
thelancet.com/journals/lance…