In Dec 2018, the bear market ended when the cavalry arrived. Lubin, Nov & others started tweeting, calling the bottom.
Per my tweet yesterday, it doesn't take much of a catalyst for a bottom to form. The market was out of sellers weeks ago; it just hadn't found buyers... yet
Per my tweet yesterday, it doesn't take much of a catalyst for a bottom to form. The market was out of sellers weeks ago; it just hadn't found buyers... yet
https://twitter.com/arrington/status/1402628202032418818
All market selloffs have 4 stages
1) Traders take profits, buyers don't see a top yet
2) Liquidations / forced selling
3) Retail panic (Fear & greed <10)
4) Momo/shorts push mkt lower til the cavalry arrives - buyer's strike but no real sellers left
We've been in #4 for weeks
1) Traders take profits, buyers don't see a top yet
2) Liquidations / forced selling
3) Retail panic (Fear & greed <10)
4) Momo/shorts push mkt lower til the cavalry arrives - buyer's strike but no real sellers left
We've been in #4 for weeks
Stage 4 ends when the buyers come back - momentum guys stop selling, the shorts start to cover, confidence comes back...
It can take days, weeks, months or years for markets to go back up, depending on the severity of the selloff and the asset class. But it stops going down.
It can take days, weeks, months or years for markets to go back up, depending on the severity of the selloff and the asset class. But it stops going down.
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