Inflation as measured by CPI increased at a 5.0% rate year-over-year last month and 0.6% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 3.8% year-over-year and 0.7% month-over-month. The year-over-year numbers were impacted by base effects from last spring. 1/
The month-over-month inflation was a slight deceleration from the April inflation numbers, but slightly above expectations. 2/
Much of the annual inflation was due to base effects, reflecting the depressed prices from last spring. Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 15 months since February 2020, the rate of CPI inflation was 3%. 3/
In core inflation, controlling for base effects the rate of annualized CPI inflation was 2.6% 4/
Cars once again accounted for a large share of the increase. Used cars, new cars, and car rentals together made up about half of core month-over-month inflation 5/
Prices of pandemic-affected services rose again this month and contributed 7 basis points to the core inflation increase in May, relative to 19 basis points in April. 6/
We know that the recovery from the pandemic will not be linear. The Council of Economic Advisers will continue to monitor the data as they come in. /end
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Personal income fell by 13% in April, a smaller fall than market expectations, as fewer economic impact payments went out than in March (which saw a large increase in personal income) 1/
Aggregate compensation (reflecting both number of employees and wages/benefits paid) again grew at 0.9 percent month-over-month, a strong pace. It rose further above its pre-pandemic high from last February. 2/
Nominal spending on goods decreased slightly, driven by nondurable goods, while spending on services continued to increase. The increased spending on services and decreased spending on goods likely reflects a reopening economy. 3/
The second estimate of GDP for the first quarter was unchanged at 6.4% at an annualized rate. Before the pandemic, our economy had not seen quarterly growth at this rate since 2003. 1/
However, the level of real GDP remains below its pre-pandemic level, reminding us of how much more work there is to be done. 2/
While there were revisions to individual components, they were offsetting, leaving the headline growth rate unchanged. 3/
For the past four decades, the view that lower taxes, less spending, and fewer regulations would generate stronger economic growth has exerted substantial influence on U.S. public policy. 1/
Over this period, the United States has underinvested in public goods such as infrastructure and innovation, and gains from growth have accrued disproportionately to the top of the income and wealth distribution 2/
Long-standing racial, ethnic, and gender disparities persist. In addition, while historic progress has been made in expanding health insurance, more remains to be done to provide adequate protection against economic risk. 3/
Inflation increased at a 4.2% rate year-over-year last month and 0.8% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 3.0% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month 1/
Part of this was due to base effects, reflecting the depressed prices from last spring. Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 14 months since February 2020, the rate of core CPI inflation was 2.2%. 2/
Some of April’s price increase also reflects pandemic-induced supply chain pressures that are expected to be transitory. The sharp increase in used motor vehicle prices accounted for more than a third of the increase in the month-over-month index. 3/
Usually when we see rising wages, the economy is growing. However, during the pandemic, composition and base effects make wage data harder to interpret 1/
In April 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings skyrocketed to about 8 percent—the highest observed since the series began in 2006. 2/
The sharp, one-month increase in reported average wages was because millions of relatively low-paid workers lost their jobs, while relatively high-paid workers remained employed. (composition effects) 3/
In the next several months we expect measured inflation to increase somewhat, primarily due to three different temporary factors: base effects, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up demand, especially for services. 1/
We expect these three factors will likely be transitory, and that their impact should fade over time as the economy recovers from the pandemic. After that, the longer-term trajectory of inflation is in large part a function of inflationary expectations. 2/
Overall inflation, as defined by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, fell during the pandemic, though there have been important differences between products and sectors 3/