Here @tamimasey looks at "deterrence-based military strategy options to fend off a Taliban military takeover" and to compel a political settlement: 1/n atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/southasi…
"...two options are at hand. The first is a state-centric, Bashar al-Assad style resistance of fighting to the last man, which would lead to an ANDSF centric...sector pushing back against the Taliban..."
"The other is a series of anti-Taliban groups forming a national military alliance to oppose a Taliban military takeover and preserve the state."
"Unlike the Syrian state-centric resistance model, the Afghan [state-centric] model should have the support of a global alliance to deter the Taliban and force them to accept a political settlement."
"[But] Some in Afghanistan draw comparisons between US-NATO military engagement with Afghanistan and the Russia-Iran partnership with Bashar al-Assad in Syria."
"Whereas the Russians and Iranians managed–albeit with brutal and inhumane tactics–to secure a strategic victory, the United States and its allies failed in Afg...Taliban [& US] regional foes...taunt Afghan officials about the unreliability of Washington and its military."
"Countries surrounding Afghanistan, near and far, need to roll up their sleeves and contribute to the security and stability of the country via three channels: directing their proxies to augment and serve as an auxiliary force to ANDSF..."
"...leveraging political influence for a political settlement against various groups that enjoy their protection and support; and, once a political settlement is reached, ceasing to support and disbanding their proxy groups while committing to a neutral Afghanistan."
"An unstable Afghanistan will directly impact the security of Islamabad, Tehran, Moscow, Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Afghanistan’s other neighbors." n/n
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Tajikistan: "...with Rahmon preparing to hand over power to his son, the economy in crisis following the pandemic, and concerns over Afghanistan’s future after the U.S. withdrawal—the Tajik regime is in desperate need of Russian support."
Kyrgyzstan: "Since [2013], relations between Kyrgyzstan and [US] have not improved...It’s difficult for [US] to build a long-term relationship with Kyrgyzstan...instability [in country] would also make it hard for Washington to guarantee the security of its troops..."
.@MarkMazzettiNYT and @julianbarnes report that US and Pakistan are negotiating a base in Pakistan for post-withdrawal counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, according to three US officials. Highlights: 1/n nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/…
This is part of a last-minute Biden admin effort to secure a counterterrorism posture for Afghanistan by the time of US pullout from Afghanistan.
In the difficult negotiation trying to work around the reality of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, Pakistan is demanding restriction on use of base including requiring signing off on targets US gov’t wants to hit.
[Thread] The UN Monitoring Team's annual report for the 1988 sanctions committee on the Afghan Taliban is out. Some highlights: 1/n undocs.org/S/2021/486
On the Taliban's leadership: Mullah Yaqub is second in line after first deputy Siraj Haqqani to Taliban leader Akhundzada.
On Taliban's cohesion: Independent operations and power wielded by Taliban field commanders has become a growing concern; Sadr Ibrahim and Zakir at times act more autonomously; overall though unity within the movement remains strong.
"[The US withdrawal is] certainly not considered good news in China. Once the U.S. absolves itself from the material and moral responsibilities to Afghanistan, its approach to the country could become more flexible, pragmatic, and tactical in serving a broader agenda."
"For the past 20 years, China has demonstrated a contradictory attitude toward the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. On the one hand, China has seen America’s war, presence, and “manipulation” or “distortion” of Afghan politics as the cause of instability."
"[at the same time] China has consistently seen the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as godsends that blessed China with a golden “window of strategic opportunity” to develop its strength without alarming the United States after 2001."
.@NicRobertsonCNN & @SaleemMehsud report: "In an exclusive interview...al Qaeda official tells CNN that "war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world."" 1/n cnn.com/2021/04/30/asi…
"...al Qaeda's spokesperson heaps praise on the Taliban for keeping the fight against America alive. "Thanks to Afghans for the protection of comrades-in-arms, many such jihadi fronts have been successfully operating in different parts of the Islamic world for a long time...""
"Through journalistic intermediaries, CNN stringer Saleem Mehsud reached out to al Qaeda for its reaction to Biden's move to pull out troops from Afghanistan, and rather than ignore him as it has done so many times in the past, representatives answered."