.@TUmarov assesses the politics of US military basing options in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan: carnegie.ru/commentary/846…
Tajikistan: "...with Rahmon preparing to hand over power to his son, the economy in crisis following the pandemic, and concerns over Afghanistan’s future after the U.S. withdrawal—the Tajik regime is in desperate need of Russian support."
Kyrgyzstan: "Since [2013], relations between Kyrgyzstan and [US] have not improved...It’s difficult for [US] to build a long-term relationship with Kyrgyzstan...instability [in country] would also make it hard for Washington to guarantee the security of its troops..."
Uzbekistan: "...the issue of hosting U.S. troops in Uzbekistan will inevitably be met with resistance from Moscow and Beijing, and it’s doubtful that Tashkent is prepared to pay that price...There is also likely to be major resistance from Uzbek society..."

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More from @asfandyarmir

10 Jun
Here @tamimasey looks at "deterrence-based military strategy options to fend off a Taliban military takeover" and to compel a political settlement: 1/n atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/southasi…
"...two options are at hand. The first is a state-centric, Bashar al-Assad style resistance of fighting to the last man, which would lead to an ANDSF centric...sector pushing back against the Taliban..."
"The other is a series of anti-Taliban groups forming a national military alliance to oppose a Taliban military takeover and preserve the state."
Read 9 tweets
6 Jun
.⁦@MarkMazzettiNYT⁩ and ⁦⁦@julianbarnes⁩ report that US and Pakistan are negotiating a base in Pakistan for post-withdrawal counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, according to three US officials. Highlights: 1/n nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/…
This is part of a last-minute Biden admin effort to secure a counterterrorism posture for Afghanistan by the time of US pullout from Afghanistan. Image
In the difficult negotiation trying to work around the reality of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, Pakistan is demanding restriction on use of base including requiring signing off on targets US gov’t wants to hit. Image
Read 6 tweets
3 Jun
[Thread] The UN Monitoring Team's annual report for the 1988 sanctions committee on the Afghan Taliban is out. Some highlights: 1/n undocs.org/S/2021/486
On the Taliban's leadership: Mullah Yaqub is second in line after first deputy Siraj Haqqani to Taliban leader Akhundzada.
On Taliban's cohesion: Independent operations and power wielded by Taliban field commanders has become a growing concern; Sadr Ibrahim and Zakir at times act more autonomously; overall though unity within the movement remains strong.
Read 21 tweets
15 May
President Ghani’s Der Spiegel interview focuses on the role of Pakistan, downplays US role. Highlights: 1/n spiegel.de/international/…
Ghani says US will play a minor role, peace or hostility are in Pakistan’s hands. Image
Ghani on Pakistan’s influence: Image
Read 9 tweets
13 May
"[The US withdrawal is] certainly not considered good news in China. Once the U.S. absolves itself from the material and moral responsibilities to Afghanistan, its approach to the country could become more flexible, pragmatic, and tactical in serving a broader agenda."
"For the past 20 years, China has demonstrated a contradictory attitude toward the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. On the one hand, China has seen America’s war, presence, and “manipulation” or “distortion” of Afghan politics as the cause of instability."
"[at the same time] China has consistently seen the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as godsends that blessed China with a golden “window of strategic opportunity” to develop its strength without alarming the United States after 2001."
Read 14 tweets
30 Apr
.@NicRobertsonCNN & @SaleemMehsud report: "In an exclusive interview...al Qaeda official tells CNN that "war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world."" 1/n cnn.com/2021/04/30/asi…
"...al Qaeda's spokesperson heaps praise on the Taliban for keeping the fight against America alive. "Thanks to Afghans for the protection of comrades-in-arms, many such jihadi fronts have been successfully operating in different parts of the Islamic world for a long time...""
"Through journalistic intermediaries, CNN stringer Saleem Mehsud reached out to al Qaeda for its reaction to Biden's move to pull out troops from Afghanistan, and rather than ignore him as it has done so many times in the past, representatives answered."
Read 8 tweets

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