LET'S TALK ABOUT LA SD 7 THREAD
SD7 is situated in the West Bank, and includes parts of three parishes (Jefferson, Orleans, and Plaquemines). It's demographic changes have mirrored demographic changes in the Westbank as a whole
(1/) Image
This district once elected a Republican who had switched from the Democratic Party. (White) Democrats recaptured the district in 1991, and in 2015, it elected black Democrat Troy Carter, who is now a US Congressman
(2/)
This is a district with a 57-33% black/white voter registration, while in the 2020 Presidential election, the black voting majority was 55-36% white/black
(3/)
An interesting race was in 2015 (Troy Carter's victory). He was in the runoff against white Democratic term limited state representative Jeff Arnold, who represented the Algiers section of New Orleans.
(4/)
Troy Carter won that race 57-43%. What was interesting was that the black vote went 79-21% for Carter, while the white vote was 78-22% for Arnold. HOWEVER, a white liberal precinct in Algiers/New Orleans only voted 58-42% for Arnold
(5/)
In other words, there is a noticeable white liberal contingent in Algiers/New Orleans that (IMO) holds the balance of power with regards to Rep. Gary Carter's Saturday performance.
(6/6)
As a postscript, the indirect point being made here was that despite representing nearly all of the Orleans Parish precincts in SD7, white Democratic representative Jeff Arnold could only garner 37% of the vote against Troy Carter.

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More from @WinWithJMC

13 Jun
LA SD 7 ELECTION NIGHT THREAD
First, a regurgitation of the basics while we wait for the polls to close in 21 minutes. This is a district that is located in the Westbank and contains parts of three parishes:
(1/) Image
It once had a Republican state senator who was a party switcher, and when he retired in 1992, white Democrats represented the district until 2016. This district which was a quarter century ago 38% black and voted Clinton 60-35% and Landrieu 59-41% is now
(2/)
Read 36 tweets
12 Jun
SD 7 THOUGHT BY JMC THREAD (ELECTION IS TODAY)
Ill be watching the race tonight, and have calculated what it takes for the race to be finished tonight vs going into a runoff
(1/)
This once GOP district was held by white Dems 1992-2016. When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996, SD 7 had a 38% black electorate and supported Clinton 60-35% and Landrieu 59-41%. Last year, the voting electorate was 55% black, and Biden carried it 70-28%
(2/)
Read 7 tweets
12 Jun
VACCINATIONS IN THE USA THREAD (6/11):

What has the trajectory been of those completing their vaccinations across our country, and how long will it take for 50% vaccination? On a weekly basis, I use data from the US Vaccine Tracker(@USVaccineCount) to "do the math."
(1/)
My interpretation of the data:
(1) The % age of those completing their vaccinations, while slowing down to a crawl, has stabilized
(2) The rate of increase peaked just before the J and J news in mid April.
(2/) Image
Depending on what you assume is the weekly rate of vacc completions moving forward (i.e., either the current weighted average of 2.1%/week, or last week's 1.4%), we're currently looking at 50% vaccination somewhere between 7/5 (+3 days since last wk) & 7/17 (-7 days).
(3/)
Read 4 tweets
11 Jun
LOUISIANA CORONAVIRUS DAILY DASHBOARD (6/11):

(1) Hospitalizations:285(+4)
(2) Yesterday/today:1.6%(-0.9%) (Antigen tests 1.7% positive)
(3) June(cume):2.5% (-0.1%)
(4) May:2.6%
(5) Apr:2.1%
(6) Mar:2.3%
(7) Vaccs:1.69M(36.3% of pop)/1.52M (32.5%) completed the series.
(1/4)
"Good news day": (1) Hospitalizations notched up a bit, from 281 to 285, (2) % positive dropped from 2.5 to 1.6% (4th lowest EVER, and lowest since 4/27), & (3) the % vaccinated (updated Mon/Thurs) is 36.3% - 32.5% of whom have had 2 vaccinations.
(2/4)
Since 2/2, LA has been below 5% positive for 127/130 (or 98% of) days. And since Jan 13, hospitalizations have dropped/stayed flat 107 of the last 150 days, or 71% of the time.
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
T-28 MINUTES FOR REGULAR SESSION
T-7 MINUTES
SENATE ADJOURNED
Read 6 tweets
10 Jun
LOUISIANA CORONAVIRUS DAILY DASHBOARD (6/10):

(1) Hospitalizations:281(-8)
(2) Yesterday/today:2.5%(-0.3%) (Antigen tests 5.7% positive)
(3) June(cume):2.6% (NC)
(4) May:2.6%
(5) Apr:2.1%
(6) Mar:2.3%
(7) Vaccs:1.69M(36.3% of pop)/1.52M (32.5%) completed the series.
(1/4)
"GREAT news day": (1) Hospitalizations dropped again, from 289 to 281 (7th lowest EVER), (2) % positive notched down from 2.8 to 2.5%, & (3) the % vaccinated (updated Mon/Thurs) is 36.3%(+0.3) - 32.5%(+0.4) of whom have had 2 vaccinations.
(2/4)
Since 2/2, LA has been below 5% positive for 126/129 (or 98% of) days. And since Jan 13, hospitalizations have dropped/stayed flat 107 of the last 149 days, or 72% of the time.
(3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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