Thread by @WinWithJMC

LA SD 7 ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

First, a regurgitation of the basics while we wait for the polls to close in 21 minutes. This is a district that is located in the Westbank and contains parts of three parishes:
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It once had a Republican state senator who was a party switcher, and when he retired in 1992, white Democrats represented the district until 2016. This district which was a quarter century ago 38% black and voted Clinton 60-35% and Landrieu 59-41% is now
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57-33% black/white, and voted 70-28% for Joe Biden. Accordingly, it elected its first black state senator in 2015 (Troy Carter), who defeated an incumbent white Democratic state rep (Jeff Arnold) who was term limited.
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In that 2015 race, whites voted 78-22% for Arnold, while blacks were 79-21% Carter. That same year, Arnold's vacated House seat elected black Democrat Gary Carter (who is Troy's nephew)
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When Troy Carter was elected in an April special election to Congress, Gary decided to seek his open seat. He is the lone black and New Orleans candidate. There are also three white candidates from Plaquemines Parish
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In person early voting concluded a week ago, and mail in voting has generally concluded as well. Reason I'm saying "generally" is that mail ins had to be in the hands of the Clerk yesterday, while overseas/military have a deadline of today.
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Last night's in person + mail number is 2,523 (51-45% black/white). In "Louisiana English", this means a very low turnout - JMC projects 10% total voter turnout, or about 7K total voters.
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The real suspense here is that in a black majority district that is heavily Democratic (there is a strong white liberal contingent in Algiers/New Orleans) is whether state rep Gary Carter wins without a runoff. To that end, JMC has established a "JMC runoff line"
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which I've calculated as meaning Gary Carter needs 85% of blacks and 14% of whites. As returns come in , I'll evaluate actual results against the "JMC runoff line."
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PLAQUEMINES EV: Gary Carter 4%, Joanna Leopold 48%. According to the "JMC runoff line" Carter needed 16%. However, Plaquemines is Leopold's home.

Now waiting on Jefferson and Orleans' EVs, then the precinct vote. I figure the EV is 1/3 of the total vote.

In these next two parishes (esp Orleans) will be the acid test of Gary Carter's strength.

JEFFERSON EV: Gary Carter 60%, the Republican 24%. The "JMC runoff line" Carter needed 55%. So first good signal for Gary Carter.

For the Orleans EV, the "JMC runoff line" is 61% for Gary Carter.

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, Carter 35%, Leopold 30%, McCarty (R) 24%, Cormier 11%

Editorial note: Half hour in, and only 2 parishes' early votes, with NO precinct votes. For literally the only election in the entire state.

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in + ONE Plaquemines precinct in, Carter 32% (-3), Leopold 31% (+1), McCarty (R) 24% (NC), Cormier 13% (+2)

Note: Plaquemines is the smallest part of the district, and has 5 total precincts. This is a "slow news hour" :)

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in + TWO MORE Plaquemines precinct in, Carter 28% (-4), Leopold 34% (+3), McCarty (R) 26% (+2), Cormier 13% (MC)

Note: 3/5 of Plaquemines (the smallest part of the district) is in now. Still waiting on Orleans EV and Orleans/Jefferson pcts

3 precincts in Gretna (in Jeff Parish) in now. The "runoff line" was 26%, and Gary Carter got 35%. These are white precincts, by the way.

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, 3/5 Plaq, and 3/23 Jefferson in, Carter 26% (-6), Leopold 30% (-1), McCarty (R) 29% (+5), Cormier 15% (+2)

NO Orleans Parish yet. They're V-E-R-Y slow with reporting

Most likely, once I see some Orleans votes, I can "pull a Wasserman" and "see enough"

Rest of Plaquemines in. So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, Plaq, and 3/23 Jefferson in, Carter 26%, Leopold 30%, McCarty (R) 29%, Cormier 15%

With Jeff and Orleans left, it will only go up from here for Carter.

As previously mentioned, Im waiting on Orleans before I call the race, but 3 more Jefferson precincts came in. One was a 74% black precinct in Gretna. Gary Carter got 92%. Nuff said.

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, Plaq, and 11/23 Jefferson in, Carter 30% (+4), Leopold 27% (-3), McCarty (R) 29% (NC), Cormier 14% (-1)

With 1/2 of Jeff and Orleans left, it will only go up from here for Carter.

So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, Plaq, and 14/23 Jefferson in (3 more Jeff pcts in), Carter 32% (+2), Leopold 26% (-1), McCarty (R) 28% (-1), Cormier 14% (NC)

SENATOR GARY CARTER

Orleans EV came in. Gary Carter needed 61%. He got 79%

All the EV in, 100% of Plaq in, So with 2/3 parishes' EVs in, 100% of Plaq, and 14/23 Jefferson in, Carter 48% (+16), Leopold 20% (-6), McCarty (R) 22% (-6), Cormier 10% (-4)

Given JMC's call for Gary Carter to win tonight without a runoff, his state House seat (HD 102) will soon be vacant. It's a 66% black seat that voted 84-15% for Biden and 89-11% for John Bel Edwards.

Why did I call the race on the basis of the Orleans EV ONLY ? Because the Orleans EV was 66% black. Assuming Carter got 90% of that, that means he got a MAJORITY of the white vote. Which is better than Troy Carter did against a white term limited incumbent (Jeff Arnold) in 2015.

In other words (more "Louisiana English"), Troy Carter in 2015 got 59% of the Orleans EV against a established white incumbent. Gary got 79% against three Plaquemines Parish candidates.

All the EV in, 100% of Plaq in, 18/23 Jefferson in, Carter 50% (+2), Leopold 19% (-1), McCarty (R) 21% (-1), Cormier 10% (NC)

That makes it official.

All the EV in, 100% of Plaq in, 22/23 Jefferson in, Carter 51% (+1), Leopold 19% (NC), McCarty (R) 21% (NC), Cormier 10% (NC)

Waiting on one Jefferson precinct and Orleans' 38 precincts now

More "Louisiana English": the black precincts (so far, I only have Jefferson) voted 87% for Gary Carter. I expect at least that, likely over 90% when we see Orleans coming in.

While New Orleans does take time to report its results, I can also tell you they tend to do so in batches, as opposed to 1-2 precincts at a time.

The ONE Jefferson precinct left is 214B, which is in Harvey. It's 78% black and voted 90% for Biden.

That precinct just came in, and Gary Carter got 86% there. So he almost certainly got a respectable number of white votes.

It's not inconceivable that when Orleans comes in, that Gary Carter could attain 60% of the total vote.

100% of Jeff: Carter 63%, McCarty 22%, Leopold 8%, Cormier 7%
100% of Plaq: Leopold 43%, McCarty 30%, Cormier 20%, Carter 7%
EV of Orleans: Carter 79%, McCarty 10%, Leopold 8%, Cormier 3%

What we know of turnout:

Jefferson 7%
Plaquemines 17%
Orleans at least 4% (we only have EV thus far)

In Jefferson, 36% of the vote was cast early
In Plaquemines, 39% of the vote was cast early

JMC Political Lesson 1099: treat the early vote as "14 election days"

23/38 pcts in Orleans came in. Gary Carter now cumulatively has 58%

Two of those precincts were white liberal Algiers Point precincts. Carter got 69% there. To put in proper perspective, Biden got 61%.

Also, too, I have data on 15 black precincts in Algiers that have come in. Gary Carter in the aggregate received 93% there.

In other words, his getting 60% isn't such a far fetched thought.

Lo and behold, the rest of Orleans came in.

FINAL: Carter 60%, McCarty (R) 17%, Leopold 14%, Cormier 9%

Early Vote: Gary Carter 58%
Election Day Vote: Cary Carter 61%

Black vote: 90% Gary Carter
White vote: 21% Gary Carter (which, by the way, is what Troy Carter got in 2015 when he defeated a white Dem term limited state rep)