Thread by @WinWithJMC

SD 7 THOUGHT BY JMC THREAD (ELECTION IS TODAY)

Ill be watching the race tonight, and have calculated what it takes for the race to be finished tonight vs going into a runoff
(1/)

This once GOP district was held by white Dems 1992-2016. When Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996, SD 7 had a 38% black electorate and supported Clinton 60-35% and Landrieu 59-41%. Last year, the voting electorate was 55% black, and Biden carried it 70-28%
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When Troy Carter won in 2015, he defeated a white Dem term limited state rep named Jeff Arnold, who was from Orleans Parish 57-43%. Whites voted 78-22% for Arnold, while blacks were 79-21% Carter.
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HOWEVER, a white liberal precinct in Algiers/New Orleans only voted 58-42% for Arnold, which was the "icing on the cake" for Troy Carter. Today, his nephew, state rep Gary Carter is the only Orleans candidate, and he is running against three whites from Plaquemines Parish.
(4/)

I am conservatively estimating 7% election day turnout in Jefferson and Orleans, and 15% in Plaquemines (which is about 15% of the district). Using this and the early vote, the "runoff DEW line" will be....
(5/)

that Gary Carter needs 85% of the black vote (keep in mind a white Dem named Mack Cormier is running as well) and 14% of the white vote (also keep in mind Algiers has a significant number of white liberals). Polls close in 11 hours.
(6/6)