MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t
However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.
Because Montana employs an independent commission and the tie-breaking member has some Dem ties, there *is* a chance of a map like the one above that makes #MT01 competitive (i.e., a Trump/Bullock '20 district).

That said, I still think chances of 2R-0D are greater than 1R-1D.

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More from @Redistrict

11 May
In 2013, Ken Cuccinelli (R) only lost Fairfax County to Terry McAuliffe (D) by 22 points. If Glenn Youngkin (R) can spend enough in DC to keep his deficit there in the same range, he'd have a chance, given rural VA's drift right since. Still uphill for Rs.
To put it in perspective: a 22 pt margin sounds like a lot, but Northam (D) won it by 37 in 2017 and Biden won it by 42. This fall will test whether the blue shift is permanent up and down the ballot, or back to being more elastic w/ Trump out of office. #VAGOV
Another huge suburban battleground Youngkin would need to snap back: Virginia Beach, which voted for Cuccinelli by 2 pts in 2013 but Northam by 5 pts in 2017. Unlike the past two GOP nominees, Youngkin has roots in Hampton Roads - which could be helpful. #VAGOV
Read 4 tweets
28 Apr
MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here's why...
In 2018, the GOP gerrymander crumbled and Ds picked up two suburban Detroit seats, #MI08 and #MI11. But now, every seat needs to expand. And w/ two Black majority seats to preserve (#MI13 and #MI14 below), there may not be enough blue turf left to protect all four suburban Ds.
For example, it's possible #MI09 Rep. Andy Levin (D) & #MI11 Rep. Haley Stevens (D) get thrown together (below), and #MI08 Rep. Elissa Slotkin is forced to run in a swingy, much more Lansing-centric seat. In the words of one House Dem, "I'm worried we've outkicked our coverage."
Read 6 tweets
16 Apr
Interesting: to stop Republicans from engaging in delay tactics, Democrats in the Oregon state legislature have struck a deal to relinquish total control over redistricting.

Oregon is slated to gain a sixth House seat in '22, so this could be a big deal.…
To be clear, I should have said "exclusive" control over redistricting. There will now be equal numbers of Ds & Rs on redistricting committees, which increases the likelihood Oregon courts will draw the new map.
Why is this such a big deal for Congress in 2022? If a court were drawing a compact, partisan-blind Oregon map, they might end up drawing 3/6 seats that at least *lean* Republican (below).
Read 4 tweets
15 Apr
It's here (please clap).…
Check out @CookPolitical's brand new PVI report by yours truly and @alflinn on the latest trends, featuring a hover map w/ post-2020 PVI values for all 435 congressional districts.
Subscribers to @CookPolitical get exclusive access to a fully sortable, downloadable table of new PVI values, along w/ raw presidential vote totals by district calculated especially for this report by @uselectionatlas.
Read 4 tweets
9 Apr
MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. But this time, they're poised go even further, by taking a sledgehammer to Rep. Andy Harris (R)'s #MD01 for an 8D-0R shutout. Image
In the example below, Harris's #MD01 would go from Trump +20 to Biden +15 (a 35 point swing!), by losing heavily R parts of Cecil/Harford/Carroll counties and picking up Annapolis, Columbia and Laurel. All seven other districts are still Biden +20 or more. Image
Remarkably, as the above hypothetical shows, Dems could simultaneously make MD Rs extinct at the federal level *and* draw a much cleaner map than the current one. And, they only need 3/5 support in the legislature to override Gov. Larry Hogan (R)'s veto.
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7 Apr
LOUISIANA: in 2012, Rs packed Black voters in NOLA & Baton Rouge into one snakelike seat (#LA02 below), and dominate the other five. Dems view it as a blatant gerrymander, and now that they have the governorship, they'll have a seat at the redistricting table.
Louisiana's population is 33% Black, and it's now possible to draw *two* fairly compact Black majority seats: #LA02 based in NOLA & another connecting Baton Rouge w/ Lafayette, Alexandria or even Monroe (#LA05 below). Expect Dems to fight/sue for this additional seat.
However, drawing a second Black majority district would likely also mean a dramatic reconfiguration of #LA05, where Julia Letlow (R) was just elected and enjoys plenty of bipartisan goodwill. This is where the politics could get complicated for Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) & others.
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