MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t thearp.org). 
However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.
Because Montana employs an independent commission and the tie-breaking member has some Dem ties, there *is* a chance of a map like the one above that makes #MT01 competitive (i.e., a Trump/Bullock '20 district).
That said, I still think chances of 2R-0D are greater than 1R-1D.
That said, I still think chances of 2R-0D are greater than 1R-1D.
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