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Tren Griffin Profile picture
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11 Jun, 5 tweets, 2 min read
What business is this?
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
"A liquidity network improves the rider experience and attracts more drivers. A driver enablement network, helps drivers lower their operating costs and improve their efficiency through our auto and electric mobility solutions."
As a huge coincidence, I am also seeking a valuation of $100 billion for my 2021 freezer jam production.

"sources familiar with the matter previously told Reuters that Didi could raise around $10 billion and seek a valuation of close to $100 billion." reuters.com/article/busine…
$100 billion desired valuation / 77.6 million MAU = $1, 289 per MAU.

$65 billion / 77.6 million MAU = $838 per MAU

Can't do a CBCV without more numbers.

google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.c…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
10 Jun
1/ I said in a recent Infinite Loops Podcast that 1994 was my "miracle year." It was actually included parts of 1993 too so it wasn't a calendar year. The commercial Internet was being born. What Microsoft people believed internally about the Internet wasn't the public position.
2/ Bill Gates said to me: "A technology shift sometimes forces a business to jump from a slippery iceberg across freezing seas and land successfully on another slippery iceberg. Some businesses don't successfully stick a landing and survive that jump. Not jumping is also deadly."
3/ Teledesic's broadband "Internet in the Sky"® satellite constellation was approved by the board Thanksgiving week in 1993. The public announcement was March 1994. Craig McCaw and Bill were the only outside shareholders. Four of us started our zero to one startup journey then.
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
7 Jun
This part of the scam was not specifically discussed in my MoviePass dissection dated December 2017, but this fraud was, of course, used to reduce COGS.
You may recall that the MoviePass stock price chart replicates the trajectory of a Six Flags roller coaster named "Dumbo's Chariot." Few understand this.
You may also recall this picture of the MoviePass founders laughing like they are Ray Liotta in Goodfellas.

This is what experienced investors use as a "tell" that the business is a fraud. The tell is technically known as "the Liotta Omen."
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
5 Jun
1/ A offers a freemium SaaS product for use by artists. No user of the service pays anything (fiat money or otherwise) until they hit a usage threshold. Is the cost of supporting non-paying users part of:

1) cost of goods sold (COGS); or

2) customer acquisition cost (CAC)?
2/ Clue: Is there a GAAP definition of customer acquisition cost (CAC)? If not, why not?

What is the value of understanding this factor's impact on a customer lifetime value analysis?

See generally:

morganstanley.com/im/publication…

abovethecrowd.com/2012/09/04/the…

25iq.com/2016/12/09/why…
3/ Does whether the cost of supporting non paying customers in a freemium business model appears above the gross margin line (COGS) or below the gross margin line (CAC), tell you something important about unit economics and the value of your customer? hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-ec…
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
2 Jun
1/ "... algorithmic is more likely to succeed [in short time windows] because this day, the market probably resembles a lot what happened yesterday.. further out, those things break down..." Dennis Lynch joincolossus.com/episodes/40040…
2/ "We're trying to win by time arbitrage or having a longer time horizon. I'm looking not this year's earnings, but three, five years plus out. And hopefully being able to then have the ability to stick with our positions .. ultimately it's a patience temperament edge." D Lynch
3/ Assume you have a demanding day job and do not have access to a team of skilled data scientists and software developers.

Are you more likely to succeed as an investor, without investing through a fund, based on:
Read 5 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
1 Jun
"5G is just the next G. We have to do it. Our capital profile is reasonably consistent over time. So monetization of 5G it’s the same game plan we’ve always had. We were focused on getting the crown jewel asset around mid-band 5G,” T-Mobile CEO M. Sievert sdxcentral.com/articles/news/…
"We kind of side-eyed cable selling wireless and said, ‘yes, they are an MVNO, they will never be able to really, but [did] very effectively. They have been more successful than we thought. Without owner economics, they can’t compete with us sustainably." fiercewireless.com/operators/t-mo…
"This year we will move from our current 60 to 80 megahertz deployed in mid-band 5G to 100 megahertz on a superior piece of spectrum, 2.5 GHz, that propagates farther.” T-Mobile' Sievert

Everything in wireless involves tradeoffs. Suite spot spectrum is many hertz not too high.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
30 May
1/ Every successful entrepreneur knows customer lifetime value (CLV) is the difference between the present value of the cash flows a customer generates over his or her lifetime and the cost to acquire the customer. This applies to my hamburger example here or a SaaS business.
2/ "A company expecting $500 in lifetime cash flow from a customer who cost $300 to acquire adds $200 to its value.

Customer NPV = PV of lifetime customer cash flows – acquisition costs." Mauboussin

The analysis is about cash flow and not GAAP earnings. hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-ec…
3/ CLV is a particularly important tool today because: 1) customer acquisition costs happen up front; and 2) GAAP requiring that the cost of intangible assets be expensed rather than capitalized makes "earnings" a potentially misleading way to determine the value of a business.
Read 7 tweets

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