Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: Euros – Matchday One

I give you a statistical rundown on all the players to pick and avoid as we head into matchday one of the Euros:

#Euro2020 #EuroFantasy

*In collaboration with @drafthound – my content partner

*Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent

Drafthound: Make sure you check their player rankings as well as #Euro2020 guides, to help you make the best #EuroFantasy team for matchday one! The website is completely free and user friendly:

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@drafthound

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Turkey v Italy: Italy come into the tournament on the back of eight consecutive clean sheets and start as being one of the most likeliest teams to keep three clean sheets in the group stages. Spinazzola is the pick of their defenders for me - he has recorded ten attacking...

... returns this season domestically while he’s averaging an assist every four games for Italy which is a great record to have as a defender. Attacking wise, I don’t expect Italy to run riot as Turkey are a good defensive team – no team conceded fewer goals in the qualifiers...

...The value in the Italy attack lies in Berardi who is cheap and is in good form having scored in the recent friendly for Italy and 17 times domestically for Sassuolo this season. Insigne was top for shots in the box, big chance involvements and penalty area touches in the...

... recent friendly so he is likely to be the main man. He’s also remarkably averaging a goal or assist in his previous 11 Italy appearances. I would avoid all Turkey assets for this one as I believe it’s likely to be a tough fixture.

Wales v Switzerland: I believe this game is likely to be low scoring and most assets will possess little upside which is not what you want in a short tournament where you ideally want a great start. Ricardo Rodriguez being on set pieces and penalties is the only one who...

... interests me here. However, even his attacking numbers domestically haven’t been great where he has failed to register a goal involvement over two seasons.

Denmark v Finland: I believe this is the fixture to target in matchday one. According to @drafthound, Denmark are bookies favorites for a clean sheet out of all the teams playing this matchday. Denmark have recorded nine clean sheets in their past 12 games so my advice would...

... be to double up - Kjaer, Schmeichel and Mæhle are the ones who I like. Kjaer is the nailed central defender with the likes of Vestergaard, Christensen and Anderson fighting for the other slot. Mæhle is affordable and is expected to start at left back. He has three...

... attacking returns in his past eight appearances for Denmark and also registered six assists this season domestically. My pick of the attackers would be Christian Eriksen - He plays as the number 10 behind the striker and he’s on all set pieces including penalties, so...

... has a lot of avenues to points as everything goes through him.

Belgium v Russia: Romelu Lukaku is the obvious pick here. He is on penalties (in the absence of Hazard) and comes on the back of being Belgium’s all-time top scorer and one of the odds-on favorites for the golden boot this tournament. With Hazard being an injury doubt, I also...

... like the prospects of Yannick Carrasco who has been in good form domestically and showed glimpses of promise in the recent Belgium friendlies. After Lukaku, he recorded the highest number of shots in the box and big chance involvements in the recent friendlies...

... Denayer is likely to represent good value but I don’t think Belgium will keep a clean sheet here with Dzyuba being Russia’s main man. He’s on penalties and his stats during the qualifying stages...

... were simply incredible – no player recorded more big chances and shots in the box than the big guy.

England v Croatia: I think this could be a good fixture for England but what makes it hard is to predict the correct England starting 11 before the deadline. I don’t think Kane is worth the premium price tag for this fixture alone – as there are better options with easier...

... fixtures out there. I’d love to pick Foden but I’m not sure if he plays. Mount is nailed to start but I don’t think he has huge upside because his goal threat isn’t as significant.

Austria v North Macedonia: I believe this is another fixture to target. Arnautovic is likely to start and be their main man up front. He topped the charts for shots in the box and big chances among Austrian players during the qualifiers and is likely to be on penalties. He’s...

... done well domestically in China as well, scoring 19 goals this season. In just 26 minutes in the recent friendly against Slovakia, he registered more than double the number of penalty area touches and shots in the box than anyone else in the game. Alaba and Sabitzer are...

... decent picks in midfield. Defensively, Austria have really good odds for a clean sheet so Hinteregger and Bachmann, who has been confirmed to start as first choice goalkeeper would be my picks. It’s worth pointing out that Austria conceded against North Macedonia in both...

... qualifying games though. Alioski being on penalties for North Macedonia has upside but a clean sheet is highly unlikely.

Netherlands v Ukraine: According to the bookies, Netherlands have the best combined clean sheet odds of all teams in the tournament spread over the first three matchdays which means they stand a chance of realistically keeping a clean sheet in each one of their fixtures...

... Stekelenburg is likely to start as the goalkeeper and he along with Wijndal are likely to be good value. Dumfries is slightly expensive but he was really impressive in both the recent friendlies. He registered the highest number of penalty area touches and shots in the box...

... after Depay of all Netherlands players over the two recent friendlies so could even be worth the premium over Wijndal. I think this 3-5-2 has hurt the prospects of Wijnaldum, who was playing in a slightly more withdrawn role than he does generally for Netherlands. Depay...

... had the highest number of big chance involvements of all Dutch players in the qualifiers and as we know he likes to shoot a lot. He’s on penalties too and probably would be my first-choice pick from this team. I really like Zinchenko as he’s playing in midfield and...

... recording some great numbers in recent times but I believe a clean sheet for Ukraine is unlikely so I wouldn’t go there.

Scotland v Czech Republic: There are a few picks worth mentioning here but I wouldn’t say there is necessarily a standout. Souček’s goal threat dried up for West Ham but he’s a different beast for the Czech Republic. He had triple the number of shots in the box and big chances...

... than any other Czech player during the qualifiers. Adams has been in good form for Scotland recently while McGinn was their top scorer in the World Cup qualifiers as well. It was worth noting that...

... McGinn registered double the number of shots in the box and big chances than all other Scottish players in the Euro qualifiers too.

Poland v Slovakia: Lewandowski is the obvious player worth talking about here. After Ronaldo, he has the best odds to score this week. I’m not sure whether he’s worth the premium though because I’m not sure how many chances will the Polish team be able to create for him to...

... haul big. Zielinski has been on form domestically for Napoli but his international underlying numbers aren’t great – he recorded no big chance involvements in his nine appearances in the Euro qualifiers. Hamsik from Slovakia registered zero big chance involvements...

... in the qualifiers hence is not worth the premium price tag either.

Spain v Sweden: I don’t think that games involving Spain will be too high scoring with their possession-based style of play hence I’m slightly more interested in their defence. Pau Torres is likely to start and is a bargain at his price. The goalkeeper Simon is likely to keep...

... his shirt too given the string of starts he has had recently. Ferran Torres had the highest average position of all Spain players v Portugal and has five goals in his previous five Spain appearances so would be my pick here.

Hungary v Portugal: I must admit I wasn’t too high on Portugal before their recent performances in the friendlies but a lot of the numbers posted there were eye-opening. Bruno Fernandes created three big chances and recorded three big chances, while Ronaldo had an incredible...

... 16 penalty area touches, five shots in the box and two big chances. Joao Cancelo remarkably created three big chances too! I still don’t think Bruno Fernandes is worth the outlay though, who over a larger sample size recorded just two assists and a goal during the...

... qualifiers. Jota and Bernardo Silva are likely to be good differentials – Bernardo created on average one big chance per game during the qualifiers while Jota is the only Portugal player to have recorded at least one big chance in their recent friendlies v Spain and Israel.

France v Germany: I think this is a game which France should win and do well in but given the fact that they have the most expensive players in the game, I would probably avoid all French players for this game because there are more standout fixtures out there to target.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my work during the Euros and will also be contributing to my threads for FPL next season! Make sure to follow him to show your support!

In my previous threads, I did similar previews for Groups A, B, C and D, E and F along with a piece on chip strategies. You can check them out here:

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1398561924737126406

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1399743468021465090

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1400450090284716034

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1401910781424328707

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