All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.
(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)
UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:
- Tests: 874,909 (-251,449)
- Cases: 14,354 (-5,462)
- Deaths: 481 (-111)
- Hospitalized: 16,577 (-424)
- ICU: 3,501 (-103)
(Tests/Cases/Deaths: +/- = change from raw count same day last week)
(Hosp/ICU: +/- = chg from yesterday’s census)
Really a solid Friday to end the week. First week ever with no days above 500 raw reported deaths. First week ever with no days above 15k raw reported cases. Large case drop from last Friday. And new pandemic low—again—for positive testing percentage.
Next week could answer some questions. Early signs of southern rises like last year? So far it’s been pretty quiet. Delta? Lower vax states in the gulf coast? Florida? Texas? It almost makes you wish we went *one* more week with a daily report before swapping to weekly…
Because I’m so full of Italian food and rocking a decent buzz, no full regionals tonight. But I will provide Florida based on the weekly report it released today. So FL’s numbers (and the US’s) are now actual.
FLORIDA
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First, we're not "2 weeks past the Memorial holiday weekend data issues." Memorial Day deflates reported cases & deaths for *days after* Memorial Day. The Tuesday is extremely deflated, and usually it takes days to return to normal pipeline reporting. This time was no different.
Also, what do you think happens to the 7-day average when metrics are deflated into the middle or late portion of the holiday week? It captures that deflation and carries it further, of course. So the 7-day average is artificially low typically through the *following* ~Wed.
Got a bit curious about the US v. UK as it relates to the #DeltaVariant. Some good news on that front for the US: at least in the early stages, the US rate of increase is nowhere near the UK.
🧵thread🧵
First: I used covariants.org/per-country, which shows percentage of sequenced variants based on 2-week blocks. One potential point of confusion to note when you use the site: the dates along the x-axis indicate the *start* of the 2-week period.
Here are the percentages of sequences that made up the #DeltaVariant in the UK (by 2-week period):
Arizona was the first state to show sharp rises during the 2020 summer wave. In fact, we already saw movement by this time last year. So here's a thread comparing AZ's 2020 and 2021 trends. I looked at the 2021 7DA ending 6/11 v. 5/21 and 2020 7DA ending 6/12 v. 5/22.
🧵thread🧵
First, I used a 3-week comparison to place 2020 and 2021 on as even a footing as possible. Memorial Day 2020 was 5/25, so using 1 or 2 weeks would have placed Memorial Day in either 2021's or 2020's comparisons. Not good. Also, all % changes are weekly, not for the 3-week period.
Here is the link to the CDC model the story references.
The model used "data available through March 27, 2021" to forecast cases, hospitalizations, and deaths varying vaccination (low/high) and NPI (low/moderate). cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
B117 has comprised more than 50% of our cases for likely more than a month now. The CDC has it at ~60% as of 4/10. Here's the link: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.
(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)
UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:
- Tests: 1,001,602 (-108,738)
- Cases: 40,204 (-8,642)
- Deaths: 886 (+97)
- Currently Hospitalized: 35,661 (+247)
- Currently in ICU: 7,435 (+89)
(+/- compared to same day last week for Tests/Cases/Deaths & yesterday for Hosp/ICU)
Mostly “meh” day. Hospitalizations got the standard Tuesday bump, and a little more than last week. Reported deaths jumped, which brought us back to 700 on the 7-day average. But cases keep melting, and we again hit a new pandemic low positive testing percentage.
All graphics are 7-day averages. Today’s raw reporting for each metric is in the tweet below.
(Data retrieved directly from state dashboards. Not every state updates its numbers daily.)
UNITED STATES
Today’s raw reported metrics:
- Tests: 1,211,012 (-206,007)
- Cases: 45,265 (-8,679)
- Deaths: 362 (-61)
- Currently Hospitalized: 35,414 (-184)
- Currently in ICU: 7,346 (-84)
(+/- compared to same day last week for Tests/Cases/Deaths & yesterday for Hosp/ICU)
Drops across all metrics, and we hit another new low positive testing percentage again today. Average daily cases have dropped week-over-week by double-digit percentages for the past 13 days straight. Hopefully that trend continues.