This is untrue in several respects, and this is getting awfully frustrating. I'll touch on a few of them...
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1404426061195091971
First, we're not "2 weeks past the Memorial holiday weekend data issues." Memorial Day deflates reported cases & deaths for *days after* Memorial Day. The Tuesday is extremely deflated, and usually it takes days to return to normal pipeline reporting. This time was no different.
Also, what do you think happens to the 7-day average when metrics are deflated into the middle or late portion of the holiday week? It captures that deflation and carries it further, of course. So the 7-day average is artificially low typically through the *following* ~Wed.
That's this past Wednesday! That's how long the Memorial Day lag can affect the 7-day average. It is absurd to pretend that today is "two weeks" clear of the artificial lull.
But his tweet is also untrue because cases & % testing positive are down...
But his tweet is also untrue because cases & % testing positive are down...
That's right: the 7-day average on Friday was the lowest of the pandemic. And it was competing with the Friday before that included a TON of deflated days that, with states reporting less and less, are taking longer to come out in the wash.
I rail against this type of framing all the time in my daily threads. Like this:
https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1403147543857483776?s=20
And this (here's what comparing last week to the week before Memorial Day looked like):
https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1403147545304571904?s=20
Put a simpler way, if you received $10, then $1 less dollar each week for 4 weeks, you would go:
10-9-8-7
If in the 2nd week, someone was short, it might look like this:
10-8-9-7
Or this:
10-8.5-8.5-7
Minute volatility does not a trend make. You're getting less over time!
10-9-8-7
If in the 2nd week, someone was short, it might look like this:
10-8-9-7
Or this:
10-8.5-8.5-7
Minute volatility does not a trend make. You're getting less over time!
If you remove Memorial Day and use a 14-day comparison, you get this (7DA, 5/28 to 6/11):
Cases: 20,390 ➡️ 13,065 (-35.9%)
Deaths: 493 ➡️ 412 (-16.4%)
% Pos: 2.05% ➡️ 1.60% (-22.1%)
Oh, and current hospitalization/ICUs have dropped steadily and consistently (holiday or not).
Cases: 20,390 ➡️ 13,065 (-35.9%)
Deaths: 493 ➡️ 412 (-16.4%)
% Pos: 2.05% ➡️ 1.60% (-22.1%)
Oh, and current hospitalization/ICUs have dropped steadily and consistently (holiday or not).
I suspect also that, unlike our team's data collection, many sources don't remove large backlog data dumps (like Texas's several thousand cases last week). Well, if cases are in the low teens, that's going to make a hell of a difference too.
Hell, Worldmeters is also showing the continued decline after the apparent plateau/mini-rise caused by the holiday affect. I think they deal with data backlogs too:
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
worldometers.info/coronavirus/co…
I'm looking forward to no longer following this data, and soon. At least partly now because it's hard to deal with this absurdity every damn day. It's starting to get to me more and more. This is what I mean:
https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1403147555735810051?s=20
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