The idea that bitcoin "ultimately shifts power from banks & corporations back to the people globally" is an idea which could only be held by someone who doesn't understand money.
The reason why bitcoin shifts the power "decentralizing the power" away from banks and corporations and "to the people" is not a quantity problem, which is the usual argument for rising price. It is the database protocol.

And as everyone knows, database protocol for the cash
in your wallet or the gold bars in your vault is key. If you go to the bar to pay for a round of pub-brewed ale, the very act of pulling out your wallet and withdrawing a C-note involves a bank taking a spread on you, and the corporation which forced the branded wallet upon you
has manifested its corporate greed by selling you that wallet. If you had just used bitcoin, neither the c-note across the bar nor the branded wallet would have involved giving up spreads to wicked bankers and corporations.

And if I buy a house with gold bars, it is the banks
and corporations who take a spread there too whereas if I were to pay for it in bitcoin, those filthy banks and corporations wouldn't be able to profit from the transaction.

The fact I need an app on a phone or computer made by a corporation to deal with bitcoin is problematic,
but nothing we can do there.

@jack might be right. As long as I don't use twitter, or square, or buy a Tesla, or fly to Africa on an airline, or do anything else which allows a company to make a profit on my bitcoin transaction/payment, then it's all good.
Certainly, bitcoin miners around the world will shortly be powering their hand-soldered ASIC boards by paying sats to armies of exercise fanatics grinding out the miles on their secondhand exercise bikes.

The one key to everything here is that NOBODY who takes bitcoin can make a
profit in bitcoin. If so, that bitcoin will then belong to "capital" where it will presumably accumulate. BTC owners will either lend their bitcoin, or they will make investments which will earn more bitcoin (i.e. earn a higher return than market bitcoin lending rates).
To do so efficiently, they might set up gigafactories to make cars or batteries, or make fashionable exercise bikes in China. They might even create a payment system which would process bitcoin payments. Investing at scale, as a corporation, would limit liability and lower costs.
But if they earn less in bitcoin terms than the bitcoin market lending rate, then no need to invest. And if it means raising the profitability of investments by increasing prices (in bitcoin) to "the people", or lowering labor costs (in bitcoin) to "the people", then so be it.
Eventually, capital owners will own all the bitcoin and non capital owners (which is most of "the people" globally Jack refers to) will work for food and shelter.

I think most bitcoin evangelists excited about the decentralisation and "finite supply" angles haven't gamed it out.
Or they have and are simply more excited about its dystopian/divisive nature. Its "monetary/asset construct" is designed neither "for the people" nor for democratisation of finance. It is designed to value and promote scarcity and hoarding of non-productive capital-equivalent.

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More from @bauhiniacapital

3 Jun
I am going to take the other side of this. In a lot of ways.

First, @andrewrsorkin's point about $GME and $AMC being the "public" take on it I expect meant the "non-involved public"

Second, "the [US] general public" doesn't know much about "short selling abuses, short sale...
2/n: ...mismarking, FTDs, and the complete lack of regulatory enforcement and oversight."

Short sale mismarking? No epidemic of this. It happens. Internal, independent auditors, and the SEC find these things. People get fired. The SEC charged BTIG last week with 90 instances
3/n: dating to 2016-2017 from a single HF which had a history of abuses. One or more BTIG employees screwed up. The HF abused BTIG, and the market, and admitted it. The SEC found that BTIG didn't push back hard enough when the HF lied.

sec.gov/litigation/lit…
Read 19 tweets
27 Mar
Modelling the approximate "Blow Out Portfolio" of 9 blocks sold Friday.

Blue is the portfolio value if long-only (in USD mm).

Greenish is the portfolio vs a 100% NDX hedge (as of 31Dec19).

Red is 15 day realized EWMA (0.94) volatility.
Delta-neutral portfolio volatility (against NDX) was at the high end of its range (averaging 24+%ytd) AND the Basket performance vs NDX was super strong.

The long-only portfolio was up 62.4%ytd as of 19 Mar.

A delta-neutral (daily re-hedge vs NDX) was +61.4%ytd to 19 Mar.
The question is... were there warning signs?

The answer: Being blunt, yes.

A tech-y basket hedged delta-neutral to a tech-y index was up 61.4%ytd against 24.6% vol which annualises out to an information ratio which should boggle the mind (61.4% rtn in 78d - do the math).
Read 16 tweets
21 Mar
For those who are as yet unaware of the gastronomic fancy magicked by Monsieur Bong (@bongcapital), I can only recommend his substack.

lecordonbong.substack.com/p/recipe-treac…
I would have tried that recipe but I was in want of every single ingredient listed except for a slab of rump steak, an onion, and celery so my own version this even used balsamico + honey instead of treacle. The sauce was the sous vide juices, with a butter/wine reduction (syrah)
It was stupendously delicious.

That's the tweet.
Read 5 tweets
20 Mar
I read the Ark model on TSLA.
One thing one has to give them credit for is they aren’t shy about their assumptions.

After 11 yrs of car-making, they made 500k cars in 2020. The ‘bear case’ for 2025 is 5mm units. Assuming capacity grows 1mm cars a year from 2021-2025 that gets
them to their bear case of ~11mm cars on the road by end 2024 and 13mm on average in 2025.

The bear case assumes 40% of all Teslas sold will be on a human ride-hailing platform. That’s 5.4 million human-driven ride-hailing Teslas on the road in 2025.

The bull case is
of course, more aggressive at 10mm units sold in 2025, suggesting avg 22mm TSLAs on the road in 2025, 13.2mm of which are used for human-driven ride-hailing, and there is a 50% chance that 13.2mm is only 8.8mm with the *other* 13.2mm used as robotaxis.
Read 11 tweets
11 Feb
Carson Block of @muddywatersre writing in the FT lays the blame of stonk gyrations like GameStop (sub $20 on 12 Jan, up 18-fold in 10 trading days) squarely on low rates and passive investing.

This is Hogwash, Blatherskite, Buncombe, and Taradiddle.

ft.com/content/dbfc69…
Pure Trumpery.

It was 1 stock out of tens of thousands in the world which moved that way and has become a meme unto itself of fantabulous stock and social movement.

Carson talks briefly about low rates and government bailouts, which theoretically should affect the others. Image
But then he falls into the trap that many others who do not understand passive investing do.

This is NOT how passive investing works. Image
Read 18 tweets
18 Dec 20
With close to ~$90bn to trade on the close, it was always going to come pretty close given a normal day's ADV.
That fall into the close on Tesla is classic ‘big name inclusion trade unwind’ pattern - people say “let’s not leave it all for the close, just in case” and put their ‘sell ahead of the close vs sell at the close’ ratio higher than the buyers do.

Now I’ve jinxed that. 🤓
Closing cross on S&P funding trade was about 8-9% larger than the S&P Global model would have suggested (I had it a trifle larger than even that but indexers might trade the tail. If they trade the tail on both sides, they’re already screwed going into the weekend b/c TSLA AH up.
Read 4 tweets

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