Tomorrow, was supposed to be the day of final reopening in the UK. But the delta variant has made policy makers more cautious, and there is now an expectation of a delay.
What is the data saying? How bad is it?
In the global picture, the UK stands out as the only European country with significant case growth.
Cases levels are still far from peak, but we have seen 2-3 weeks of >50% week-on-week growth now.
And levels are now 300% of what they were 3-4 weeks ago
Still, hospitalizations are growing more modestly. Focussing on England, they are up 50% over the last 3-4 weeks, and still at very moderate levels compared to past waves.
The deaths also tell a different story, with essentially no spike to observe yet (although obviously this is a lagging indicator).
As I remarked yesterday, it is important to note that the case growth seems to he happening among the unvaccinated young part of the population (which would also help to explain declining CFRs etc)
Here are the results from the much talked about NIH data (I am afraid I cannot locate the sample size etc, so pls comment if you have those)
Bottom line: Vaccines seem quite effective even on delta, although mostly after 2 doses (and mRNA is ahead of Oxford product)
Accelerating the vaccine roll-out along key dimensions seems crucial:
- 2nd doses faster
- vaccinations to younger cohorts (down to 12 years)
This stuff can make a difference.
Will the Indian/Delta variant cause issues elsewhere?
Case trends in the EU (and the US) still look good and Europe is vaccinating at near 1% of the population at the moment, so significantly more (macro) protection will be available in 1-2 months compared to now.
It is also possible that the UK is looking different because of its vaccination strategy (focus on 1st doses and use of Oxford product). But if the cases are mostly among vaccinated, this is probably a smaller part of the story.
In a few weeks, we will have more convincing data on hospitalization and fatality trend (lags will be less an issue) and we will be able to judge better if spread among younger cohorts is a minor or more significant issue (although long COVID will take longer).
From a macro perspective, the key point is that all the data suggests that the vaccines are working well (albeit after 2 doses). Hence, the need for dramatic policy reactions, beyond a VERY aggressive vaccine roll-out, can probably be avoided.
I will leave it at that.
(typo: 'among UNvaccinated')
sorry
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There has been a lot of focus this week on El Salvador becoming the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender
Is it a good idea?
Quick thread (currency risk angle)
Unsurprisingly, many hard core crypto folks have celebrated the step, as a harbinger of a global trend towards broader adoption of bitcoin/crypto (freedom even).
The piece by @DanielAlpert got me thinking a bit about US exceptionalism, as it pertains to the labor market, and the role the unemployment benefits may play.
Which country stands out in this chart?
=> some observations on income distribution and labor supply...
This is simply OECD data that tell you what percentage of jobs is less than 2/3 of median earnings.
The US is 23.4%
Belgium,N.Zealand,Finland,Italy,Denmark,Portugal all <10%
The US has an awful lot of low paying jobs (in a relative sense, but also relative to cost of living)
You can argue. 'but US is a wealthy country, and if the median is high...'. But what about the food stamps then. They would not be needed if the absolute level was fine.
There used to be little correlation between crypto and global markets in general. But the sell-off in Nasdaq futures overnight does look (very and unusually) correlated to the breakdown in crypto space
[here illustrated with BTC (green) and ETH(yellow), vs Nasdaq (white)]
The debate about bitcoin now reminds me of a wedding I went to in 2006.
A beautiful wedding that was ruined by a discussion about the US housing market.
It went like this...
1/ Back in 2007, I was at a fantastic wedding in LA. The dinner was outdoors, in spectacular weather, with a unbelievable view to the ocean. All was going well, until the discussion touched on the US housing market.
2/ I was working as an economist at Goldman Sachs at the time, and the fundamentals of the housing market looked shaky. I argued, after being asked about my opinion, that the US housing market could be in a bubble. That was a mistake.
My tweet from yesterday has generated A LOT of debate. In fact, almost 1 million people have looked at the basic chart I circulated (showing with EU catching up to the pace of vaccine administrations the US first achieved in March).
It has also generated some misinterpretation. I did not mean to imply that any country was ‘winning’ against any other country. In this battle, it is all countries against the virus, and we should all celebrate when more countries join the winning side.
In terms of what it means to be ahead, clearly it is not just about a good pace for a few days. It is about the speed at which you can reach a critical level of overall immunity in the population; at which put the virus will be on a sustained declined (including after reopening).