Thread by @jnordvig

Tomorrow, was supposed to be the day of final reopening in the UK. But the delta variant has made policy makers more cautious, and there is now an expectation of a delay.

What is the data saying? How bad is it?

In the global picture, the UK stands out as the only European country with significant case growth.

Cases levels are still far from peak, but we have seen 2-3 weeks of >50% week-on-week growth now.

And levels are now 300% of what they were 3-4 weeks ago

Still, hospitalizations are growing more modestly. Focussing on England, they are up 50% over the last 3-4 weeks, and still at very moderate levels compared to past waves.

The deaths also tell a different story, with essentially no spike to observe yet (although obviously this is a lagging indicator).

As I remarked yesterday, it is important to note that the case growth seems to he happening among the unvaccinated young part of the population (which would also help to explain declining CFRs etc)

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1403019838126186498

Here is one data point on vaccine effectiveness:

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1401959006504034343

Here are the results from the much talked about NIH data (I am afraid I cannot locate the sample size etc, so pls comment if you have those)

Bottom line: Vaccines seem quite effective even on delta, although mostly after 2 doses (and mRNA is ahead of Oxford product)

Accelerating the vaccine roll-out along key dimensions seems crucial:
- 2nd doses faster
- vaccinations to younger cohorts (down to 12 years)

This stuff can make a difference.

Will the Indian/Delta variant cause issues elsewhere?

Case trends in the EU (and the US) still look good and Europe is vaccinating at near 1% of the population at the moment, so significantly more (macro) protection will be available in 1-2 months compared to now.

It is also possible that the UK is looking different because of its vaccination strategy (focus on 1st doses and use of Oxford product). But if the cases are mostly among vaccinated, this is probably a smaller part of the story.

In a few weeks, we will have more convincing data on hospitalization and fatality trend (lags will be less an issue) and we will be able to judge better if spread among younger cohorts is a minor or more significant issue (although long COVID will take longer).

From a macro perspective, the key point is that all the data suggests that the vaccines are working well (albeit after 2 doses). Hence, the need for dramatic policy reactions, beyond a VERY aggressive vaccine roll-out, can probably be avoided.

I will leave it at that.

(typo: 'among UNvaccinated')

sorry