Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

Here is my @SkyNews interview with @skynewssarah on the delay to Step 4 of the Roadmap
- cases rising exponentially
- so are hospitalizations with a delay & a low starting point
- less than 1/2 the population have had 2nd dose
- Delta doesn't play fair

The Roadmap was calibrated against the Alpha/Kent variant. That's why the last two Roadmap tests were included: variants and hospitalizations

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1363881367197671425

We knew before Step 3 was taken that Delta/B.1.617.2/the 'India' variant was more transmissible.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1393246259859832836

We didn't know *how much* more transmissible. But before Step 3, SPI-M projected how hospitalizations would change based on a variant being 10, 20, 30, 40, 50% more transmissible.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

We have since found out that Delta is around 60% more transmissible (there is still some uncertainty).

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1403283308616851458

We have since learnt that transmissibility is just one of the risks of Delta.

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1403983380111372289

Today, for example, we have more information on infection severity.

https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1404442610991779842

We know that getting your second dose of the vaccine is critical to give the most protection against Delta (this is the 'vaccines' risk)

And *no-one* wants another lockdown.

So, where are we with cases and hospitalizations?

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1402695567030038530

Here's a thread showing why I believe that cases and hospitalizations *have not* been decoupled

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1403332702179299331

Cases are increasing exponentially. You can see this as the purple line on this chart

We can also see that hospitalizations lag behind cases.

But what about hospitalizations (in red)?

That's not so clear on this graph.

So we can plot the *growth* of cases and the *growth* of hospitalizations (with a bit of a lag) to see if there's a link.

We can see that the purple line and the red line are still linked.

What we do know is that vaccines work. That's why hospitalizations are starting from a relatively low level (lower than without vaccines).

But that just gives us a couple of weeks' head start. Hospitalizations follow cases.

And vaccinations stop hospitalizations.

We're not there yet.

We need more time for
- people to get their first doses
- those that have had their first dose to get their second dose
- more data on the link between cases and hospitalizations

And *nobody* wants another lockdown.

Hospitals are *very busy* with the non-Covid backlog from Lockdown 1, Lockdown 2, and Lockdown 3. There is little spare capacity for Covid patients.

*The reason for delaying Step 4 is to stop Lockdown 4*

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1404415956189954049

Here is the latest analysis from data issued at 4pm today, 14 June.
- case growth rate 49% per week
- hospitalizations growth rate 47% per week
- patients in ICU/HDU beds increasing
- cases and hospitalizations *not* decoupled