Thread by @EdConwaySky

There we have it. According to @borisjohnson the UK hasn’t passed the four tests laid out in Feb when the reopening timetable was announced.
A pretty clear pass on tests one and two (vaccines) and a pretty clear fail on test four (variants). Test three unclear.
Reopening delayed.

Here’s the q: what changed between the PM saying 12 days ago that he could see “nothing in the data” to change re-opening timetable and today?
Variant growth rate v similar.
Case growth rate v similar.
Not sure there’s any data we have now that we didn’t on June 2.
What changed?

The point of basing policy on DATA is that you actually follow the data.
Better still, you make it clear what levels of data will trigger what kind of action.
Why? That kind of transparency means people can use that data to plan their lives rather than hoping for leaks from No10

My point here is not abt whether the delay is right or wrong.
It’s that the data that supposedly underlies today’s decision was pretty evident a fortnight ago. Case growth similar today as on June 2. Yet Downing St kept insisting there was nothing in the data to alter timetable

Growth rate of the Delta/Indian variant in recent weeks has been very constant indeed.
Yet throughout this period No10 has kept telling us there’s “nothing in the data” to change the plan.
Until today, when they pointed to Delta growth rate as the reason for delaying reopening.

PM said today case growth was running ahead of projections laid out with unlocking timetable.
What he didn’t point out is that hospitalisations are in line with the best-case scenario from Imperial for SPI-M in Feb.
This could still change. But that’s where we are vs expectations