New: G7 insiders are now expecting a breakthrough on a global minimum corporate tax rate at next week’s finance minister’s meeting in London. Full story: news.sky.com/story/global-t…
There’s been lots of movement behind the scenes on this.
Last wk the working plan was the summit would mostly be about climate change.
Now TAX is likely to dominate.
And G7 insiders say a deal in London is “doable”. Which in turn wld make a G20/OECD deal later this yr more likely
This is big stuff.
Biggest overhaul of tax rules in a century.
But there’s ongoing negotiation between sherpas abt which companies would be affected and how the two “pillars” of this (1. changing how we calculate what taxes are owed where, 2. Global minimum rate) interact.
So it remains to be seen where things land. And still a chance everything disintegrates between now and next Fri. But insiders say a G7 deal looks increasingly likely, esp since US cut their proposed global minimum from 21% to 15%. Anyway, full story here: news.sky.com/story/global-t…
Of course none of this answers the question of what to do about countries that don’t play ball.
Earlier this wk I reported that Ireland’s @Paschald is holding firm with his 12.5% corp tax rate.
Negotiations are ongoing behind-the-scenes abt arrangements to bring Ireland on board
If those talks fail then there will be talks abt the mechanisms whereby the G7 and other countries signing up to the deal can recoup those unpaid taxes, poss by blocking deductions. But we’re still a long way from that. US & G7 hopeful they can talk most countries round.

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More from @EdConwaySky

25 May
Exclusive: Big blow for Joe Biden as Irish finance minister tells me he has “significant concerns” with US proposals for global minimum corporate tax rate:
•No plans to change Ireland’s 12.5% rate.
•Expects it to be in place in 5/10 yrs time.
Story here: news.sky.com/story/ireland-…
Irish finmin tells @skynews:
- “sig reservations” abt Biden tax plans
- “proud of the part the 12.5% tax rate has played in our econ development”
- N Ireland protocol helped secure “the long term interests of the island [of Ireland], but “there are issues”
These comments from @Paschald represent the strongest reproach yet to the US president, who is seeking to persuade countries around the world to agree to a floor on corporate tax rates of 15% - the biggest potential reform to international biz taxes in a century.
Read 16 tweets
25 May
If we do eventually discover that #Covid19 was indeed something which came from a Chinese laboratory rather than naturally jumping from animals to humans, I think much of the media/establishment will need to think long and hard about how it got this so wrong.
The problem isn’t just what @TomChivers calls “seeing the smoke” vs “reading the room”
It’s not just about interventions
It’s about a kind of mob mentality where we convert the conventional wisdom into a tablet of stone which we then bash over the head of anyone who disagrees
It’s about the fact that when curious people attempted to investigate or cover the lab escape theory - like @mattwridley or @Ianbirrell - they were derided as conspiracy theorists.
Social networks removed their posts, citing fact check sites which didn’t know the answer either.
Read 4 tweets
19 May
New: @matthancock tells HoC the data behind his claim Pakistan & Bangladesh had positivity 3x higher than India (as per thread 👇)
He says: positivity of passengers “was 1.6% in India and 4.6% in Pakistan, which is three times higher. As I said.”
Finally an answer!
BUT…
While it’s great that the Health Sec has at last provided the data, there are still some oddities.
- First, why didn’t he say anything about Bangladesh?
- Was Bangladesh’s positivity really three times above India’s, as he explicitly claimed on Mon?
He still hasn’t explained this
- Second, why isn’t this data publicly released?
If govt decisions are happening on the basis of key data series then surely there’s a public interest case in making that data public.
As this farago showed, this data is NOT public.
Read 6 tweets
17 May
I wasn’t planning another thread on #COVID19, the Indian variant & why govt took so long to put it on the red list. But then something odd happened.
Let’s begin with this, @MattHancock in the House of Commons this afternoon: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a1…
Here, in case you missed it, is what he said: “The truth is that when we put Pakistan on the red list - and indeed Bangladesh - the positivity of those arriving from Pakistan and Bangladesh was three times higher than that from India.”
Recap:
Bangladesh & Pakistan were red-listed (compelling travellers to quarantine in hotel & banning non-citizens/residents) in early Apr.
India wasn’t added til 19 Apr (enacted 23 Apr).
The gap matters because that was potentially when Indian variant B.1.617.2 gained a foothold
Read 29 tweets
14 May
THREAD: How did we end up here? With the UK’s plans to lift lockdown threatened by a new variant. Just as we taste freedom, it might be stolen from us! Well. It’s a slightly long and circuitous story and, believe it or not, the best place to start is with Brexit…
No. Don’t worry. This is not not a thread about Brexit. But Britain’s departure from the EU is the starting point for one of this govt’s overarching policy objectives: the need to seek out a trade deal with key partners. And one of those key partners is India.
That’s partly why @BorisJohnson made India the destination for his very first International visit. But then #COVID19 got in the way. The first slated trip in Jan was postponed. Then it was rescheduled for Apr 19. But then cases picked up in the Indian sub-continent…
Read 24 tweets
10 May
Thread: In a factory somewhere on the outskirts of Birmingham sits a machine which tells you rather a lot about the UK economy & where it's heading. It cuts & presses little bits of copper alloy, which are then sent on to another company which puts them into car rear view mirrors
If you buy a car with a heated rear view mirror anywhere in the world, chances are it’ll be powered by those copper electrodes made just outside Birmingham by @CBrandauer - in that very machine. It’s a crucial cog in an automotive supply chain that bestrides the world.
But the reason it’s worth focusing on that machine is not so much what it does but why it’s there. @CBrandauer bought it in part because of the new Super Deduction policy introduced by @RishiSunak in March’s Budget. The deduction could be a v big deal indeed.
Read 19 tweets

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