Thread by @EdConwaySky

What kind of impact will the Australia-UK trade deal have? Short answer is we don’t know, in part because we still have scant detail abt it, in part cos it generally takes a LONG time for these deals to be felt in our lives.
Even so, I think this is a big deal, for a few reasons:

The first thing to remember is the historical context. There are two lazy assumptions knocking around: 1. That the UK could never trade much with Aus given how far away it is and 2. Our trade with them really collapsed when we joined the EU and started imposing their tariffs…

Actually look at Australian trade as % of UK total, it’s clear it used to be REALLY high. Yes, this was partly because of war and partly because it was part of the sterling zone, thus locked into UK economy. But even in ‘50s/60s Aus accounted for 1 in 8 of all imports/exports

Second, while UK-AUS trade has certainly dropped in recent decades, it’s clear that the decline started long before the UK joined the EU and imposed higher tariffs on Australian imports. So simply removing those tariffs won’t necessarily reverse all this decline

Nonetheless, the removal of agricultural tariffs could be a really big deal. And while govt insists this will happen gradually over 15 years to protect UK farmers, the details of the detail divulged by the Australians earlier today suggest otherwise…

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1404778797078134788

Consider: here are 2019 beef/sheepmeat imports from Australia. The yellow lines show you the current quotas, above which restrictions on trade kick in. Quite low, right? But now have a look at what happens the minute the trade deal is signed…

When the deal is signed those quotas are catapulted dramatically higher (SEVEN times higher in the case of beef imports). This is not gradual. It’s a very sudden and sharp shift which *may* be reflected in an influx of beef imports, which could put British farmers out of business

I say *may* because while those quotas are sharply higher than before, it’s worth noting that at present Australia doesn’t exceed those much lower quotas. Ozzie farmers seem to be quite happy focusing on lucrative Asian markets. So not a given they flip to UK overnight.

But the other point here is that this deal represents a serious policy shift, which it’s worth reflecting on. Only a couple of years ago farmers were protected by EU subsidies and trade barriers. One big question upon leaving the EU was what would happen to farmers. Now we know…

UK seems (and I say seems because alas @tradegovuk has yet to release much detail and this is based on what we’re getting from the Australians) to be removing those barriers abruptly, not gradually. UK food standards will be protected (eg no hormone-fed beef), but not farmers.

However, in return for these concessions, the UK seems to have negotiated something genuinely special. UK citizens will get more access to the Australian labour market. The frankly outdated stipulation of having to do agricultural work in exchange for a visa is out.

Given Australia is among the world’s most hawkish countries when it comes to immigration policy, getting this in the deal is no mean feat. No other country save NZ has anything similar. It goes 2 ways, of course: it’ll be easier for Aus citizens to work in UK too…

So yes, both parts of this deal are important and, while they won’t be felt overnight they are bound to have an impact on our lives in the coming years. Esp farmers and under-35s who want to travel and work in Australia.

Contrary to what you might hear on this platform, trade deals are rarely “won” or “lost”. As far as I can make out, that’s the case here too. Whether you feel UK has done well/badly prob depends on how you feel about agricultural subsidies, food policy and freedom of movement.

But there is a deeper issue. I don’t think we as a nation have done enough talking about what kind of a country we want to be. Did those voting for Brexit believe that would imply the removal of protections for their farmers? Maybe. Then again most farmers voted to leave

What is our farming policy? What is our food policy? The reality is we have only begun to have that conversation. DEFRA’s recent policy positions on this have been open-ended and inconclusive. gov.uk/government/pub…

Reality is, like it or not, we DO now have the beginnings of a radically different agricultural policy, except it’s being written not by DEFRA but by the Dept for International Trade. Without much, if any, debate in Parliament. This seems like an odd way of going about things

Trade policy is, frankly, boring. Lots of abstruse numbers and jargon. Not much tangible impact for years. But don't be fooled. The UK-Australia trade agreement is a really big deal for all of us. Here's why: news.sky.com/story/why-the-…