Australian trade experts & media “baffled” by the 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 trade deal being touted.
The advantages for UK side seem so small that UK ministers are forced to claim the main benefit is cheaper food which is effectively mainly of benefit for the 🇦🇺 side as UK markets opened.
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While cheaper food is nice it will come from UK farms losing business.
Most trade deals are sold on how a deal opens up FOREIGN markets to our business.
Its unusual for govt to sell a trade deal to its population on how much it’s opened up it’s OWN market to foreigners.
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And by unusual here I basically mean “never”.
It’s now clear that the UK govt was so desperate for a trade deal with Australia it has effectively negotiated one that is of no real measurable economic benefit to UK but is likely to destroy British sheep & beef farming.
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But then all this was widely predicted some time ago:
In 1995 the Serbian film „Подземље“ (Underground) was released & was a modest, if slightly controversial success.
I liked the film as a comedy about people trapped underground in an absurdist reality appealed to me.
& then recently I realised the film was really about..Britain.
Underground is loveable crudity, slapstick & serious ideas about truth. The main character, an arms dealer, hits on the idea to convince people sheltering in a basement during WW II making weapons to fight the Germans…to believe the war is still going on…long after its ended.
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As Marko oversees the weapons manufacturing he is able to control time by adding hours to a day so the people in the cellar think that only 15 years passed since WW II instead of 20. They're continuously making weapons, and with this eternal labour supply he becomes rich.
The US govt issues a “formal reprimand” - a “demarche” - to the British govt over its actions in Northern Ireland & the Irish protocol.
News now leaking out suggests this - unprecedented action - went beyond normal inter govt warnings between allies.
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A demarche - diplomatic term for a formally communicated reprimand/warning - is normally issued at enemy states or states which have gravely injured/insulted/endangered another country.
I’m struggling to remember the last time US did this to an ally.
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One of the key attributes to a Demarche - apart from the communication of the gravest possible diplomatic reprimand - is that it has a formal nature, and this goes on both countries’ official records.
The import is thus unmistakable, historically recorded & clear.
Theres a widespread beief even by some remainers that sure Johnson is a charlatan, but actually "he doesn't really believe in anything", in other words his rightism is cynically pragmatic rather than personally driven.
But this is absurd when one considers who he appoints.
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It wasn't just Cummings who became his chief advisor. He also made his long time ally & part of the Spiked culture journalists - Munira Mirza - his Number 10 Policy Unit head.
Johnson thus cenmented the 2 most vicious right wing culture war activists at the head of govt.
One of the biggest factors in the next UK election may well be…the US election.
It’s one of those rare occasions a UK election is likely to take place right in the middle of the US presidential campaign.
Why is this so important?
Well imagine US politics in 2024…
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The 2 most likely scenarios are:
1. Pro Irish & EU Biden looks like easily winning. And perhaps US politics has returned at least a little to normal…
…and Trump, Brexit & Johnson seem like outliers from a disastrous, best left behind, era.
The other scenario is..
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A 2nd scenario is Trump (or member of his clan) is the Republican candidate & launching all sorts of rightwing craziness that are likely to make 2020 seem like small fry.
We know a significant chunk of UK swing voters & even swing leave voters are anti Trump.
The big economic secret of the UK is that growth no longer matters that much to most people.
In a highly competitive saturated society, prices & wages can no longer rise by that much - as in the past - so most extra income is merely squeezed into house price inflation.
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You might think this rather unimportant but in a way it’s the most crucial factor in UK society.
As 1. UK small with limited supply 2. London property acts as a reserve currency
This is increasingly leading to a more perverse system where...
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London/SE property market creates so much higher equity that it can generate enough to finance 2nd homes & buy-to-let market.
Which explains why UK now has one of the lowest owner occupier rates in the west - despite having lax mortgage rules & a large finance sector.
Some people need to ponder this:
There's 2 ways UK rejoins EU/Europe
1. Somehow engineer a 2nd referendum when over 40% don't want one...& then win one narrowly, then somehow convince EU rejoining won't be followed by chaos after next UK election.
Or there's a 2nd option..
2nd option is to increasingly cooperate & align with EU in a sensible, methodical way.
That doesnt require culture wars.
This will be slower, sure but means that govts (plural) commit to sensible behaviour over a period of years as a process.
Now the question you need to ask...
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Which path is likely to: 1. Work 2. Be sustainable 3. Won't plunge UK into a vicious culture war 4. Be amenable to the EU
Its going to be a slog.
And for that we need a coalition.
Of all people, parties, sectors.