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7 Jun, 5 tweets, 1 min read
PREDICTION

One of the biggest factors in the next UK election may well be…the US election.

It’s one of those rare occasions a UK election is likely to take place right in the middle of the US presidential campaign.

Why is this so important?
Well imagine US politics in 2024…
2/
The 2 most likely scenarios are:

1. Pro Irish & EU Biden looks like easily winning. And perhaps US politics has returned at least a little to normal…

…and Trump, Brexit & Johnson seem like outliers from a disastrous, best left behind, era.

The other scenario is..
3/
A 2nd scenario is Trump (or member of his clan) is the Republican candidate & launching all sorts of rightwing craziness that are likely to make 2020 seem like small fry.

We know a significant chunk of UK swing voters & even swing leave voters are anti Trump.

Which means…
4/
A combination of 1 + 2 could potentially see Trump as candidate AND Biden looking like wining easily.

In this context nationalism based on Brexit (+4years) & COVID (hopefully +2) may well be less powerful than a British population wanting respite from Trumpism/Johnsonism.
5/
I’m a believer in the “events dear boy” school of politics.
I’m certain remain would’ve won without the Syrian refugee crisis which most people have now forgotten.

The US political scene is the great big paint ball flying towards the UK political canvass in the coming years.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
8 Jun
As i've been writing on since over a year, culture war isn't some reactive policy that's sprung up.

Extensive focus group testing was done by Cummings/Johnson regime right from the start in 2019.

The aim:
All emcompassing rolling constant culture war.
It's not just about flags.
2/
Theres a widespread beief even by some remainers that sure Johnson is a charlatan, but actually "he doesn't really believe in anything", in other words his rightism is cynically pragmatic rather than personally driven.

But this is absurd when one considers who he appoints.
3/
It wasn't just Cummings who became his chief advisor. He also made his long time ally & part of the Spiked culture journalists - Munira Mirza - his Number 10 Policy Unit head.

Johnson thus cenmented the 2 most vicious right wing culture war activists at the head of govt.
Read 18 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
6 Jun
The big economic secret of the UK is that growth no longer matters that much to most people.

In a highly competitive saturated society, prices & wages can no longer rise by that much - as in the past - so most extra income is merely squeezed into house price inflation.
2/
You might think this rather unimportant but in a way it’s the most crucial factor in UK society.

As
1. UK small with limited supply
2. London property acts as a reserve currency

This is increasingly leading to a more perverse system where...
3/
London/SE property market creates so much higher equity that it can generate enough to finance 2nd homes & buy-to-let market.

Which explains why UK now has one of the lowest owner occupier rates in the west - despite having lax mortgage rules & a large finance sector.
Read 11 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Jun
Some people need to ponder this:
There's 2 ways UK rejoins EU/Europe

1. Somehow engineer a 2nd referendum when over 40% don't want one...& then win one narrowly, then somehow convince EU rejoining won't be followed by chaos after next UK election.

Or there's a 2nd option..
2nd option is to increasingly cooperate & align with EU in a sensible, methodical way.
That doesnt require culture wars.

This will be slower, sure but means that govts (plural) commit to sensible behaviour over a period of years as a process.

Now the question you need to ask...
3/
Which path is likely to:
1. Work
2. Be sustainable
3. Won't plunge UK into a vicious culture war
4. Be amenable to the EU

Its going to be a slog.
And for that we need a coalition.
Of all people, parties, sectors.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Jun
The below tweet basically acts like a test to see how strategic remainers are.

If there really is a dormant 48% + n demographic ready & waiting for a national party to campaign on instant rejoin now the LibDens would be running on it.

Rejoiners need to think & act smarter.
Fight the battle you can win now..not the battle you dream of winning in 5 years time.
A plausible scenario

LibDems fight election on closer coop with EU on Erasmus & food standards
Labour campaign for “better Brexit deal”

2024 Coalition then negotiates alignment with EU 2027

Then we take it from there

Or we could all p*ss in the wind for a 2nd ref & Boris wins
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
3 Jun
As someone who's interested in both football & politics and listens to many podcasts on both - I've noticed a strange development.

Everytime players take the knee for #BLM and they're booed the football journalists are outraged & seem at a loss to know why its happens.

& yet...
2/
And yet these journalists are working for the Telegraph, Mail & Sun - the very papers that have spent the last 2 years not just ridiculing #BLM but actively villifying it.

Would those literally booing their own players be doing so if they hadn't been whipped up by the media?
3/
So the next time sports journalists from the Telegraph, Mail or Sun bemoans the booing they should be called out for being complicit in this.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
2 Jun
This is what will happen:

UK govt won’t run risk of Scotland or N Ireland leaving so Brexit must be shown to, at the very least, not to have been a disaster. The election is in 3 years away which means...Johnson will spend the next 3 years pumping money through the country.
Thing is UK been doing this already with furlough. This means lots of suppressed demand + johnsonian grand “ leveling up” projects & Brexit baubles while trade & industry stutters likely means higher inflation.

Which leads to..
3/
Inflation in this form is basically excess money in a slow growing economy and where do Brits put that..?

...in housing of course.
As always.

House price boosts is basically 80% of its core vote sorted so Johnson won’t mind that.
Read 7 tweets

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