Theres a widespread beief even by some remainers that sure Johnson is a charlatan, but actually "he doesn't really believe in anything", in other words his rightism is cynically pragmatic rather than personally driven.
But this is absurd when one considers who he appoints.
3/
It wasn't just Cummings who became his chief advisor. He also made his long time ally & part of the Spiked culture journalists - Munira Mirza - his Number 10 Policy Unit head.
Johnson thus cenmented the 2 most vicious right wing culture war activists at the head of govt.
4/
Within days of this switch - unpredented in UK history - focus groups were testing everything from trans rights, to empire nostagia & racist language. This went beyond traditional identifications such as patriotism.
But what is the point in concrete terms?
5/
The point is a focus on one thing:
"Fear".
The focus groups found that while many British voters often had a majority of relatively progressive, liberal views they could be marshalled to reject these if they could be made to fear attack from others.
6/
So voters had a (generally) liberal view on ethnic minorities but "framing" questions away from fairness by not focussing on racial inequality but rather onto academics & the "London media" "insulting or disadvantaging white people" or "British history" could change opinions.
7/
The strategy worked well in the referendum but was never so actively a central part of ANY UK govt before.
But from July 2019 it became the heart of Johnson's govt.
Every news item whether statues, trans issues, footballers' kneeling for #BLM was put through this unit.
8/
The strategy is not so much to get people to publicly agree with Johnson's govt...indeed the point is for the govt to appear understated on this...but rather to encourage & stimulate feelings of disgust & hatred of those who argue for a more socially empathetic policies.
9/
Thus an uncontroversial policy to look at empire connections of National Trust (basically its remit to reaserach history) was funnelled via the Govt & Govt friendly newspapers into an all out full attack on the National Trust and historians/academics themselves.
10/
Most (especially white) Brits don't think about the empire.
Its history, some feel vaguely responsible to make sure rights are wronged others less so. But focus groups found that a fear that all "their country's history" could be written off as bad made voters pro empire.
11/
As signposted earlier I found out about the "Trans" focus group testing already in 2019. Other subjects tested at this time for culture war were: 1. Foreign languages 2. Benefits/legal aid for prisoners/offenders 3. Place name renaming 4. And even, bizarrely enough "Fishing"
12/
Simply said the breadth of subjects that can be culture war-ised is more or less infinite if you find a way to weaponise a discussion where enough voters feel that they are being attacked or are having their lifestyle & identity threatened.
13/
Now you can disbelieve what I say.
But I called this out over a year ago.
Since then its got worse.
Whats more its now become something that clearly the Govt takes seriously with media time, resources & staff.
In other words its the simple reality.
So how do you fight it?
14/
Well you learn from where the UK govt culture war strategy didnt work...and that was Rashford's kid's meals campaign.
Do you remember what happened - this wasn't about money...remember what happened at 1st when Rashford stood...?
15/
Govt marshalled MPs & media to attack Rashford on culture war grounds:
That money would be spent on "addicts & prostitutes" & Rashford was a rich person with houses using your tax money.
It failed
Rashford was smart enough to be clean, build a coalition & stick to facts.
16/
You can guess where this is going...
We need to build coalitions
We need to get people onside even if they may be less left wing than you - or more for that matter
As the purpose of a culture wing isn't to convert
Its to generate fear in the people who don't know the facts
17/
The sweet spot with Johnson's Culture wars is not really to win more support - that comes later.
The trick is to make centre/swing voters feel fear & disgust at people near them in voting/economic policy terms but slightly more to the progressive side on some issues.
18/
Its also about creating an "internal set of enemies" that must be defeated, so 1. Minorities 2. An "Unpatriotic establishment" secretly hating the UK
Enable people to flock to a right wing govt out of fear & hatred against those "endangering the country".
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The US govt issues a “formal reprimand” - a “demarche” - to the British govt over its actions in Northern Ireland & the Irish protocol.
News now leaking out suggests this - unprecedented action - went beyond normal inter govt warnings between allies.
2/
A demarche - diplomatic term for a formally communicated reprimand/warning - is normally issued at enemy states or states which have gravely injured/insulted/endangered another country.
I’m struggling to remember the last time US did this to an ally.
3/
One of the key attributes to a Demarche - apart from the communication of the gravest possible diplomatic reprimand - is that it has a formal nature, and this goes on both countries’ official records.
The import is thus unmistakable, historically recorded & clear.
One of the biggest factors in the next UK election may well be…the US election.
It’s one of those rare occasions a UK election is likely to take place right in the middle of the US presidential campaign.
Why is this so important?
Well imagine US politics in 2024…
2/
The 2 most likely scenarios are:
1. Pro Irish & EU Biden looks like easily winning. And perhaps US politics has returned at least a little to normal…
…and Trump, Brexit & Johnson seem like outliers from a disastrous, best left behind, era.
The other scenario is..
3/
A 2nd scenario is Trump (or member of his clan) is the Republican candidate & launching all sorts of rightwing craziness that are likely to make 2020 seem like small fry.
We know a significant chunk of UK swing voters & even swing leave voters are anti Trump.
The big economic secret of the UK is that growth no longer matters that much to most people.
In a highly competitive saturated society, prices & wages can no longer rise by that much - as in the past - so most extra income is merely squeezed into house price inflation.
2/
You might think this rather unimportant but in a way it’s the most crucial factor in UK society.
As 1. UK small with limited supply 2. London property acts as a reserve currency
This is increasingly leading to a more perverse system where...
3/
London/SE property market creates so much higher equity that it can generate enough to finance 2nd homes & buy-to-let market.
Which explains why UK now has one of the lowest owner occupier rates in the west - despite having lax mortgage rules & a large finance sector.
Some people need to ponder this:
There's 2 ways UK rejoins EU/Europe
1. Somehow engineer a 2nd referendum when over 40% don't want one...& then win one narrowly, then somehow convince EU rejoining won't be followed by chaos after next UK election.
Or there's a 2nd option..
2nd option is to increasingly cooperate & align with EU in a sensible, methodical way.
That doesnt require culture wars.
This will be slower, sure but means that govts (plural) commit to sensible behaviour over a period of years as a process.
Now the question you need to ask...
3/
Which path is likely to: 1. Work 2. Be sustainable 3. Won't plunge UK into a vicious culture war 4. Be amenable to the EU
Its going to be a slog.
And for that we need a coalition.
Of all people, parties, sectors.
The below tweet basically acts like a test to see how strategic remainers are.
If there really is a dormant 48% + n demographic ready & waiting for a national party to campaign on instant rejoin now the LibDens would be running on it.
As someone who's interested in both football & politics and listens to many podcasts on both - I've noticed a strange development.
Everytime players take the knee for #BLM and they're booed the football journalists are outraged & seem at a loss to know why its happens.
& yet...
2/
And yet these journalists are working for the Telegraph, Mail & Sun - the very papers that have spent the last 2 years not just ridiculing #BLM but actively villifying it.
Would those literally booing their own players be doing so if they hadn't been whipped up by the media?
3/
So the next time sports journalists from the Telegraph, Mail or Sun bemoans the booing they should be called out for being complicit in this.