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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
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10 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
+UPDATE+

The US govt issues a “formal reprimand” - a “demarche” - to the British govt over its actions in Northern Ireland & the Irish protocol.

News now leaking out suggests this - unprecedented action - went beyond normal inter govt warnings between allies.
2/
A demarche - diplomatic term for a formally communicated reprimand/warning - is normally issued at enemy states or states which have gravely injured/insulted/endangered another country.

I’m struggling to remember the last time US did this to an ally.
3/
One of the key attributes to a Demarche - apart from the communication of the gravest possible diplomatic reprimand - is that it has a formal nature, and this goes on both countries’ official records.

The import is thus unmistakable, historically recorded & clear.
4/
The fact this leaked out so quickly and all manner of news organizations covering this suggests (& I’m speculating here) that the US was “happy” for the news to be immediately circulated on this.

Reporting is still fresh but this is certainly a new step in UK-US relations.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
8 Jun
As i've been writing on since over a year, culture war isn't some reactive policy that's sprung up.

Extensive focus group testing was done by Cummings/Johnson regime right from the start in 2019.

The aim:
All emcompassing rolling constant culture war.
It's not just about flags.
2/
Theres a widespread beief even by some remainers that sure Johnson is a charlatan, but actually "he doesn't really believe in anything", in other words his rightism is cynically pragmatic rather than personally driven.

But this is absurd when one considers who he appoints.
3/
It wasn't just Cummings who became his chief advisor. He also made his long time ally & part of the Spiked culture journalists - Munira Mirza - his Number 10 Policy Unit head.

Johnson thus cenmented the 2 most vicious right wing culture war activists at the head of govt.
Read 18 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
7 Jun
PREDICTION

One of the biggest factors in the next UK election may well be…the US election.

It’s one of those rare occasions a UK election is likely to take place right in the middle of the US presidential campaign.

Why is this so important?
Well imagine US politics in 2024…
2/
The 2 most likely scenarios are:

1. Pro Irish & EU Biden looks like easily winning. And perhaps US politics has returned at least a little to normal…

…and Trump, Brexit & Johnson seem like outliers from a disastrous, best left behind, era.

The other scenario is..
3/
A 2nd scenario is Trump (or member of his clan) is the Republican candidate & launching all sorts of rightwing craziness that are likely to make 2020 seem like small fry.

We know a significant chunk of UK swing voters & even swing leave voters are anti Trump.

Which means…
Read 5 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
6 Jun
The big economic secret of the UK is that growth no longer matters that much to most people.

In a highly competitive saturated society, prices & wages can no longer rise by that much - as in the past - so most extra income is merely squeezed into house price inflation.
2/
You might think this rather unimportant but in a way it’s the most crucial factor in UK society.

As
1. UK small with limited supply
2. London property acts as a reserve currency

This is increasingly leading to a more perverse system where...
3/
London/SE property market creates so much higher equity that it can generate enough to finance 2nd homes & buy-to-let market.

Which explains why UK now has one of the lowest owner occupier rates in the west - despite having lax mortgage rules & a large finance sector.
Read 11 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
5 Jun
Some people need to ponder this:
There's 2 ways UK rejoins EU/Europe

1. Somehow engineer a 2nd referendum when over 40% don't want one...& then win one narrowly, then somehow convince EU rejoining won't be followed by chaos after next UK election.

Or there's a 2nd option..
2nd option is to increasingly cooperate & align with EU in a sensible, methodical way.
That doesnt require culture wars.

This will be slower, sure but means that govts (plural) commit to sensible behaviour over a period of years as a process.

Now the question you need to ask...
3/
Which path is likely to:
1. Work
2. Be sustainable
3. Won't plunge UK into a vicious culture war
4. Be amenable to the EU

Its going to be a slog.
And for that we need a coalition.
Of all people, parties, sectors.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
4 Jun
The below tweet basically acts like a test to see how strategic remainers are.

If there really is a dormant 48% + n demographic ready & waiting for a national party to campaign on instant rejoin now the LibDens would be running on it.

Rejoiners need to think & act smarter.
Fight the battle you can win now..not the battle you dream of winning in 5 years time.
A plausible scenario

LibDems fight election on closer coop with EU on Erasmus & food standards
Labour campaign for “better Brexit deal”

2024 Coalition then negotiates alignment with EU 2027

Then we take it from there

Or we could all p*ss in the wind for a 2nd ref & Boris wins
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
3 Jun
As someone who's interested in both football & politics and listens to many podcasts on both - I've noticed a strange development.

Everytime players take the knee for #BLM and they're booed the football journalists are outraged & seem at a loss to know why its happens.

& yet...
2/
And yet these journalists are working for the Telegraph, Mail & Sun - the very papers that have spent the last 2 years not just ridiculing #BLM but actively villifying it.

Would those literally booing their own players be doing so if they hadn't been whipped up by the media?
3/
So the next time sports journalists from the Telegraph, Mail or Sun bemoans the booing they should be called out for being complicit in this.
Read 4 tweets

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