SHORT THREAD on the US & Covid:

The US has made rapid progress in vaccinating its population, and supply is not an issue.

But demand has steadily fallen since April. The UK meanwhile has kept up a more constant rate of vaccination - we've not exhausted our demand yet! 1/5
And this is translating into population coverage.

The UK is ahead of the US now in both first doses *and* people fully vaccinated (even with our longer interval between doses) - and our coverage is increasing faster than the US. 2/5
The US has more vaccine hesistancy than the UK and this is now making itself felt - with particularly Republican states having lower rates of vaccine uptake.

States are trying to incentivise vaccination through prizes, food, beer...

newsweek.com/states-sending… 3/5
But if the US remains stuck below 50% of population fully vaccinated then this could be a problem for controlling Covid.

Particularly as the Delta variant (more transmissible, more severe, dominant in UK) is rapidly spreading there. 4/5
Daily cases in the US are as low as they've ever been but they've stopped falling.

I would not be surprised if they start going up rapidly if Delta becomes dominant in a few weeks, just as we have seen here in the UK. And the US will have lower vaccine protection. :-( 5/5

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More from @chrischirp

15 Jun
THREAD on England short term Covid outlook:

Thread on some of the implications of latest SAGE SPI-M models about English roadmap, step 4 & Delta.

TLDR: medium term v uncertain but in short term expect hospital admissions to keep rising.
2. They point out that current increase in cases will only stop if at least one of below happens:
1) people change their behaviour
2) govt changes policy (more restrictions and/or more public health interventions)
3) enough immunity is built up (through vax or infection)
3. Govt is basically doing 3 -> trying to get as many people fully vaxxed as fast as possible & tolerating high infections in younger people in the meantime.

It also delayed step 4 deciding (wisely!) that throwing petrol onto the fire wasn't a good idea.
Read 23 tweets
4 Jun
Here are cases in 4 regions - all showing highest rates in secondary school children - and increasing and moving up to adults over time too.
Here is data from PHE yesterday showing the the *top activity* by far for new confirmed cases was a child in school.
Data from a couple of weeks ago showing the incredibly high rates of infection in secondary school age children in variant hotspots - higher than their equally unvaccinated older counterparts.
Read 5 tweets
31 May
THREAD Some back of the envelope examples about how things could get difficult even with vaccination.

This is *no* replacement for the proper SAGE Spi-M models but gives you the idea. (11 tweets)
Between Oct & early Jan there were about 2.3 million confirmed cases of Covid, 135K hospital admissions & 28K deaths. Hardly anyone was vaccinated.

If we had a similar situation now but WITH vaccination then cases would be lower & admissions (~25K) & deaths (~3K) MUCH lower.
I think this is what most people have in their minds when they don't believe it could get bad this summer.

And if cases on same or lower scale then that is true - vaccination (particularly of vulnerable) protects us & the NHS.
Read 12 tweets
31 May
THREAD latest on B.1.617.2 variant in England:

B.1.617.2 (1st discovered in India) is now dominant in England. Here is a thread summarising latest PHE report and Sanger local data.

TLDR: it is NOT good news. 1/7
Firstly, B.1.617.2 is now dominant in England.

This data excludes traveller data and surge testing as much as possible.

In absolute numbers, B.1.617.2 ("India") overtook B.1.1.7 ("Kent") about 15 May.
PHE report estimates a few days earlier. 2/7
B.1.617.2 is now dominant in almost every region of England.

Even NE and Yorks are catching up very fast. 3/7
Read 9 tweets
30 May
THREAD on variants & borders:

SAGE warned in Jan that a red list border policy "geographically targeted travel band" was unlikely to keep variants out.

This is because we don't know in advance where the *next* concerning variant is coming from.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/11
UK spent Jan & Feb making red list policy about variants discovered in Brazil & S Africa. But wasn't paying any attention to the situation, in say, S Asia.

SAGE also said that red list policy works best if implemented very quickly & if in countries with low UK traffic. 2/11
India has strong travel links with the UK and started its awful surge in March. By 24th March, the Indian govt was warning about a new fast spreading variant.

UK waited until 23rd April before India was added to red list - and it did work to reduce travel. But too late. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
29 May
THREAD on covid and schools:

This week, the ONS infection survey which tests a random representative sample of people in England every week, showed early increases in school age kids.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 1/7
Weekly Public Health England data from confirmed cases also shows cases highest in 10-19 year olds.

Cases rose in 5-9 & 10-19 yr olds in March when schools went back. They didn't end April / early May prob cos of low community case rates.

But now they are rising again. 2/7
Above were rates for whole of England.

If we look at the three local authorities with highest levels of new variant B.1.617.2, we can see school age kid rates are *really high* - and higher than their equally unvaxxed 20-24 yr olds. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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