The US has made rapid progress in vaccinating its population, and supply is not an issue.
But demand has steadily fallen since April. The UK meanwhile has kept up a more constant rate of vaccination - we've not exhausted our demand yet! 1/5
And this is translating into population coverage.
The UK is ahead of the US now in both first doses *and* people fully vaccinated (even with our longer interval between doses) - and our coverage is increasing faster than the US. 2/5
The US has more vaccine hesistancy than the UK and this is now making itself felt - with particularly Republican states having lower rates of vaccine uptake.
States are trying to incentivise vaccination through prizes, food, beer...
But if the US remains stuck below 50% of population fully vaccinated then this could be a problem for controlling Covid.
Particularly as the Delta variant (more transmissible, more severe, dominant in UK) is rapidly spreading there. 4/5
Daily cases in the US are as low as they've ever been but they've stopped falling.
I would not be surprised if they start going up rapidly if Delta becomes dominant in a few weeks, just as we have seen here in the UK. And the US will have lower vaccine protection. :-( 5/5
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Thread on some of the implications of latest SAGE SPI-M models about English roadmap, step 4 & Delta.
TLDR: medium term v uncertain but in short term expect hospital admissions to keep rising.
2. They point out that current increase in cases will only stop if at least one of below happens: 1) people change their behaviour 2) govt changes policy (more restrictions and/or more public health interventions) 3) enough immunity is built up (through vax or infection)
3. Govt is basically doing 3 -> trying to get as many people fully vaxxed as fast as possible & tolerating high infections in younger people in the meantime.
It also delayed step 4 deciding (wisely!) that throwing petrol onto the fire wasn't a good idea.
Here is data from PHE yesterday showing the the *top activity* by far for new confirmed cases was a child in school.
Data from a couple of weeks ago showing the incredibly high rates of infection in secondary school age children in variant hotspots - higher than their equally unvaccinated older counterparts.
UK spent Jan & Feb making red list policy about variants discovered in Brazil & S Africa. But wasn't paying any attention to the situation, in say, S Asia.
SAGE also said that red list policy works best if implemented very quickly & if in countries with low UK traffic. 2/11
India has strong travel links with the UK and started its awful surge in March. By 24th March, the Indian govt was warning about a new fast spreading variant.
UK waited until 23rd April before India was added to red list - and it did work to reduce travel. But too late. 3/11
This week, the ONS infection survey which tests a random representative sample of people in England every week, showed early increases in school age kids.
Weekly Public Health England data from confirmed cases also shows cases highest in 10-19 year olds.
Cases rose in 5-9 & 10-19 yr olds in March when schools went back. They didn't end April / early May prob cos of low community case rates.
But now they are rising again. 2/7
Above were rates for whole of England.
If we look at the three local authorities with highest levels of new variant B.1.617.2, we can see school age kid rates are *really high* - and higher than their equally unvaxxed 20-24 yr olds. 3/7