Thread by @ADavidHaleJoint

What does expanded playoff mean for reg season?

Assume a P5 w/multiple Ls by end of Oct was pretty much out. Same for non-undefeated G5.

From 2014-19 that = 86 teams (thru 8 gms), avg 14.3/year.

Now include 2-loss P5 & 1-loss G5 = 178 teams, a 107%⬆️ in “playoff hunt” teams.

Essentially by Week 10 each year, we’ve eliminated 115 or so teams from playoff conversation (many well before that), leaving only about 11% of teams playing “meaningful” games. New playoff would more than double that, which is a great thing for the regular season overall.

In fact, the number is actually likely higher as there have been just 60 P5 teams that finished the regular season with 2 or fewer losses from 2014-19 — avg of 10/year. Since odds are 11 P5 schools will make the playoff most years, at least 1 3-loss team figures to be in the mix.

Can certainly argue the value of a 3-loss team making the playoff (and what that does to the relative value of those regular season games that resulted in 3 losses) but it’s pretty clear that more teams w/playoff aspirations = more interest in the sport overall.

I’d also argue that the value of a playoff bye and/or a postseason home game on campus is so significant that even if a regular-season L doesn’t eliminate you from playoff convo now, it does still have a big impact on your title chances.

I’m sure there’s a point of playoff expansion that hurts the regular season by watering down the results too much, but 12 pretty clearly ain’t it.

Big ? is if extra money, exposure & opportunity that comes w/being a new playoff contender actually helps those programs build to the point of also being a title contender. Not sure that’s the case. We may get more “meaningful” games but same number of teams that can win it all.

Here’s data in chart form… Consider a current playoff contender a 0 or 1-loss P5 or an undefeated G5, we’ve lost 75% of teams by Game 5, 95% by Game 12. Add 1 or 2 more Ls & remain a contender & you can keep half viable thru Game 7 & a quarter thru Game 9.

In the end, even if you consider all 2-loss G5s and 3-loss P5s a “playoff contender,” you’re still left with less than 20% of teams qualifying by end of regular season - an average of about 25 teams, or, you know, a top 25 if you will.

One thing that hasn’t been discussed that is a potential drawback to 12-team playoff… is there less desire to schedule tough now? Weak P5 schedule that finishes 10-2 is still, what, 85% likely to make the playoff? Why risk an extra loss when nearly all 2-loss P5 teams get in?

It’s easy enough to come up with a scenario in which the new playoff format presents a problem… but that’s true in any scenario. Nothing is perfect. The question is if this is better than what we already have, and on the whole, it sure seems like it is.