1997 Berkshire AGM, Buffett talks about the John Rawls idea of the ovarian lottery:
In the lottery, you can't control if you'll be born man or woman, black or white, abled or disabled, etc.
In that lottery...
"You would try to figure out a system that is going to produce an abundant amount of goods, and where that abundance is going to increase at a rapid rate during your lifetime, and your children and your grandchildren, so they can live better than you do, in aggregate...
...and their grandchildren can live better. [...] I mean, Charlie — when we were born the odds were over 30-to-1 against being born in the United States, you know? Just winning that portion of the lottery, enormous plus. We wouldn’t be worth a damn in Afghanistan."
1997, "The Sovereign Individual":
"In the cybereconomy, they will never see you. The ugly, the fat, the old, the disabled will vie with the young and beautiful on equal terms in utterly color-blind anonymity on the new frontiers of cyberspace."
"Merit, wherever it arises, will be rewarded as never before. In an environment where the greatest source of wealth will be the ideas you have in your head rather than physical capital alone, anyone who thinks clearly will potentially be rich."
"It will afford far more equal opportunity for the billions of humans in parts of the world that never shared fully in the prosperity of industrial society. The brightest, most successful and ambitious of these will emerge as truly Sovereign Individuals."
2021, @pmarca: "Permanently divorcing physical location from economic opportunity gives us a real shot at radically expanding the number of good jobs in the world while also dramatically improving quality of life for millions, or billions, of people."
"We may, at long last, shatter the geographic lottery, opening up opportunity to countless people who weren’t lucky enough to be born in the right place."
The internet has now made the Rawlsian/Buffettian ovarian lottery idea, and geography, obsolete, and we should rejoice.
$LMND's LTV/CAC is trending in the right direction. This chart shows 1.4x LTV/CAC in the MRQ. The second series shows the *growth* in IFP over the LTM per dollar of ad spend in the same period (~70% of S&M as a proxy):
Here are the inputs. The company released annual dollar retention data with earnings. 81% in Q1 2021, of which 7 points were upsells, so let's say 74% retention. That means 26% yearly churn, or an LTV of 3.8 years. Gross margins are about 20% but will see upward pressure...
...from two sources: first, life insurance, which flows thru at 100% since it's not an owned policy, just commission. Second, a reduction in reinsurance over time as the company proves out its underwriting and keeps more of the economics. I'm using 25%. Note that...
For anyone trying to understand Lemonade's story, here's what I recommend. Start with the slim book on the founding of the company ($LMND): amazon.com/Making-Lemonad…
Here's a narrative on the bear case for $LMND. I'm sharing it with the permission of the anonymous analyst in my DMs. The main questions include: can LMND really achieve the 17% operating margin target by @tebixby, which would mean lower expense ratios than the giants? 🧵
Here is what this analyst wrote:
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So let's be clear and distinguish between expense ratio (that's admin, marketing stuff) and the loss ratio (that's the actual insurance loss)
and lets talk specifically about auto.
So in auto the expense ratio leader is Geico.
Progressive is trying to catch up.
Roughly speaking Geico's fixed expenses are about 10% of premiums and then there is about 6%-8% of customer acquisition/growth spend.
I've never heard a politician who had me smiling and nodding the whole time. Some reasons why:
Suarez says he's talking to local universities as well as courting engineering schools (including Stanford) to open campuses in the state and increase STEM graduates🏆
He understands that taxes don't create wealth. Rather, it's free enterprise and human ingenuity that do. In short, technological progress. It was the industrial revolution--many waves of it--that painted this picture of exponential wealth: