What do we know about the “cap on tariff-free imports” into the UK 🇬🇧 from Australia 🇦🇺 under the free trade agreement?

A bit, but not much. Mostly what has been announced in press releases from the two countries.

And incidentally, this thread ⬇️ needs correcting.

1/14
It’s an “agreement-in-principle”, done now BEFORE the negotiations are finished, politics wanted something on the sidelines of the G7 Summit.

But there is information on those imports of farm goods. @DmitryOpines has had a go.



2/14
But there’s more, and I need to correct this:

Many of the present tariff quotas are not duty-free, just lower-than normal tariffs within the quota limits.

So note, in many cases Australian imports get an in-quota tariff cut too

3/14
Australia’s press release says the cap on tariff-free imports comes first from a tariff quota ending after 5 or 10 yrs.

But for two products—beef and sheep/goat meat—quantities exceeding the final tariff are charged “safeguard” duty in years 11–15: trademinister.gov.au/minister/dan-t…

4/14
We can compare this with the present tariff quotas for Australia as applied by the UK gov.uk/government/pub…

5/14
1. BEEF

NOW
2021 tariff quota—4,669 tonnes, in-quota duty = 20%

FTA
Year 1—35,000 tonnes, in-quota duty-free
Year 10 of FTA—110,000 tonnes, in-quota duty-free
To Year 15—quota expands to 170,000 tonnes, out-of-quota duty drops to 20%
Year 16—unlimited duty-free

6/14
2. SHEEP/GOAT MEAT
(all in-quota imports are duty-free)

NOW
2021 tariff quota—15,349 tonnes

FTA
Year 1—25,000 tonnes
Year 10 of FTA—75,000 tonnes
To Year 15—quota expands to 125,000 tonnes, out-of-quota duty drops to 20%
Year 16—unlimited duty-free

7/14
3. SUGAR (“raw cane sugar for refining”?)

NOW
2021 tariff quota—4,964 tonnes, in-quota duty variable around £82.01/tonne

FTA
Year 1—80,000 tonnes, in-quota duty-free
Year 8—220,000 tonnes, in-quota duty-free
Year 9—unlimited duty-free

8/14
4. SHORT, MEDIUM GRAIN MILLED RICE

NOW
2021 tariff-quota—273 tonnes, duty-free (any grain)

FTA
Year 1—unlimited duty-free short/medium grain
_______

5. WINE
From tariff to no tariff

9/14
5. DIARY (1)
This is a difficult one to crack. As far as I can see, there are no Australia-only tariff-quotas for dairy imports into the UK—neither in the UK’s WTO commitment, nor in its applied tariff quotas for 2021

Simplest guess, next tweet:

10/14
DAIRY (2)

NOW
🇦🇺 can sell dairy goods to 🇬🇧 via tariff quotas for all non-EU countries. None are duty-free (eg £175.74/tonne)

FTA
• Cheese: new 24,000-t duty-free tariff quota rising to 48,000-t in 5 yrs, then unlimited
• Non-cheese dairy: new 20,000-t tariff quota

11/14
DAIRY (3)

Which cheeses? Australia potentially had UK tariff quotas for cheddar and “cheese for processing” and still has them with the EU27 under WTO commitments

Because there were no imports to the UK in the reference period, 100% of the EU28 quota stayed with the EU27

12/14
DAIRY (4)

Which cheeses (cont)

But Australia has just renegotiated and reduced the EU27 quotas for those cheeses so a matching increase in the UK’s WTO commitment is likely. See: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/technical-note…

13/14
DAIRY (5)

Which non-cheeses? UK dairy tariff quotas also exist for butter and skim milk powder, but not specifically for Australia and not duty-free. We’ll have to see if they are the ones in the Australia deal

14/14
Now confirmed, and still vague eg on dairy, in the agreement in principle

Note: the "safeguard" is not a cap but effectively a tariff quota with a much lower out-of-quota tariff of 20%. For beef that's the same as the present in-quota rate.
gov.uk/government/pub…

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More from @CoppetainPU

15 Jun
Right, here's @tradegovuk on the UK-Australia trade deal.

Why “historic”?

Pre-Brexit, UK had deals—via the EU.

This is the *first* post-Brexit UK-only deal to be negotiated from scratch, not a roll-over.

Brexit was 15 mths ago. Not a long history.

1/8 gov.uk/government/new…
What does it contain?

1. It’s an “agreement in principle”, so not the final agreement

2. No text available yet

3. No date is given for when any of this will start to apply

2/n gov.uk/government/new…
A bit more detail. Looks like the 15-year protection for farmers = a gradual expansion of existing tariff quotas (limited quantities allowed in duty-free, expanding to unlimited over 15 yrs)

What are the UK’s existing tariff quotas for Australia? …

3/n gov.uk/government/new…
Read 11 tweets
13 Jun
#G7 #G7TradeMinisters communiqué:

Now circulated in @wto. Its 6 pages includes a couple of paragraphs on “#TradeTransparency

Includes “transparency in all respects” but the focus is narrow:

• market distorting practices
• notifications on goods

1/16 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
But #TradeTransparency and #wtoTransparency are much more than that.

The #G7TradeMinisters have nothing to say on improving external transparency so the world knows what is happening in the WTO and in other trade negotiations

2/16 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/04/26/wto…
What else do the #G7 #G7TradeMinisters say?

First some nice words on being committed to “free and fair trade” (who isn’t?), tackling the pandemic (who isn’t?), sustainable development goals (who isn’t?), and support @wto reform (who isn’t?)

3/16 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 17 tweets
12 Jun
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 12.06.2021—continuing down

Next easing Jun 28?

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—8097 & 78 (⬇️)
● in hospital—334 & 2 (⬇️)
● deaths—119 & 0.4 (⬇️)

R(e): ⬇️—0.67
Vaccinations: 5.8m (2.2m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

The previous tweet shows that numbers are definitely coming down again after a short rebound in April-early May, although deaths stayed flat.

These are for the last fortnight:

2/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant dominant. Delta (India) starting to show

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/11 Screenshot of list of variants and numbers identified (PubliScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant variScreenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of B.1.Screenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of P.1
Read 11 tweets
6 Jun
OK, Jim. I've found why “WTO”

Details aren’t in the 🇬🇧UK-NOR🇳🇴 text, but in NOR’s revised schedule of WTO commitments on goods, submitted in Sep 2020, certified in Jan 2021, as shared by @SimenS

Cheese🧀 only

The doc is here, part 2 of WT/LET/1505: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

1/6 Image
The original is still in the WTO’s Tariff Analysis Online, not yet updated

So, the total tariff quota of 2,494 tonnes is unchanged.

The original allocation to the EU28 (EEC) was 2360 tonnes.

This is now split 2,181 t for EU27 + 299 t for the UK

tao.wto.org/report/TariffQ…

2/6 Image
Why Wensleydale?

It’s mentioned in the note on the tariff quota.

Does this mean only these four cheeses qualify for the quota, @SimenS? Otherwise why name them?

regjeringen.no/contentassets/… (page 659)

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
5 Jun
COVID-19 IN SWITZERLAND. Week to 05.06.2021—continuing down

Post-easing May 31

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—8017 & 110 (⬇️)
● in hospital—331 & 3 (⬇️)
● deaths—119 & 0.4 (⬇️)

R(e): ⬇️—0.76
Vaccinations: 5.2m (1.9m 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
AND FOR THE PAST FORTNIGHT, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

The previous tweet shows that numbers are definitely coming down again after a short rebound in April-early May, although deaths stayed flat. These are for the last fortnight:

2/11 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
VIRUS VARIANTS detected

UK variant (alpha) dominant. Indian (delta) starting to show but very low

Public Health Office: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Science Task Force: sciencetaskforce.ch/en/nextstrain-…

3/11 Screenshot of list of variants and numbers identified (PubliScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant variScreenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of B.1.Screenshot: Task Force graph of estimated percentage of P.1
Read 11 tweets
2 Jun
State of play in the #WTOAgricultureNegotiations following meetings on May 25, 27.

• 5 months before the ministerial conference there's little sign that members are moving closer to any shared positions. Substantial gaps remain on almost everything

1/10 wto.org/english/news_e…
• The Cairns Group and African Group issued a joint statement calling for fairer agricultural trade by cutting domestic support that distorts markets. Getting the two groups together was an achievement, but the statement is broad. It doesn't say how

2/10 wto.org/english/news_e…
• The talks look busy with a lot of new submissions, particularly on domestic support. But they all come from individual members of the Cairns Group (lobbying for far-reaching liberalisation) plus Ukraine.

3/10 wto.org/english/news_e…
Read 10 tweets

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