Tweet

https://twitter.com/FranticGoat/status/1405276406993412103

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @RALee85

Rob Lee

@RALee85

16 Jun

If you haven't read enough takes about the Biden-Putin summit, here's mine. I think the summit is a good idea, but I also don't expect to see anything significant come from it in the short term. It is an opportunity for both leaders to have a frank conversation about intentions.

Why is this important? Well, throughout the Trump administration, details of POTUS’ conversations were leaked to the press or came out during the impeachment hearings. Why would Putin feel confident that he could be honest and admit possibly damaging things over the phone? 2/

The goal is to develop rules of the road for competition with Russia while avoiding conflict, limiting competition from being too damaging, and preventing a further deterioration in relations. The US unipolar moment is over and China is the bigger long-term threat. 3/

Read 15 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

14 Jun

No, they wouldn't.
thetimes.co.uk/article/german…

I haven't read the report so I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics went into this conclusion. In any hypothetical conflict between Germany and Azerbaijan, Germany would have air supremacy and they have plenty of precision fires that could destroy airfields (and TB2). 2/

If this report is trying to lobby for more funds for the German military or trying to make the point that they need to do more to prepare for future warfare with UAVs, ok. Azerbaijan has a strong military for its size, but it wouldn't handle a large NATO military. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

10 Jun

Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko and Ground Forces CO Oleg Salyukov were on hand in Nizhny Novgorod to inspect some new weapon systems, including the Nabarasok program's 2S43 Malva 152mm howitzer, Drok 82mm mortar, and 2S4 Floks 120mm artillery.
tvzvezda.ru/news/202161071…

The first video I've seen of the Magnolia 120mm (same cannon as the 2S31 Vena) artillery system on a DT-30 twin-linked chassis. Also the VDV's 125mm Sprut-SDM1 light tanks. The emphasis is adapting systems/arty for the arctic and on wheeled chassis. 2/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202161071…

*Nabrosok program. Video showing the Drok 82mm mortar (on a Typhoon-VDV chassis), 2S42 Lotos 120-mm self-propelled artillery system, and the Ka-52M helicopter. 3/
tvzvezda.ru/news/202161075…

Read 4 tweets

Rob Lee

@RALee85

8 Jun

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1402166591588945926

Russia's success in Chechnya was largely due to one of the rebel commanders breaking with the other rebels, who Russia then supported and helped kill his opponents (not just Russian kinetic ops). That wasn't an option in Afghanistan, not to mention the support from Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1402166591588945926

And uh, lets wait to see how this works out for Russia long-term. Kadyrov has only shown deference to Putin, and has his own security services that are loyal to him, which Moscow allowed (and his assassinations in Moscow). Not sure what will happen with Putin's successor.

Not to mention, Russia faced a number of awful terrorist attacks from terrorists from the North Caucasus after the kinetic portion of the 2nd war, including Nord Ost, Beslan, the 2004 and 2010 Moscow Metro bombings, and the 2011 Domodedovo Airport bombing.

Read 4 tweets