Here is the latest comparison of what the Economist/YouGov poll this week shows in terms of the approval of the Republican and Democratic parties and the change in approval since right before the election last November.
In November, All Voters had a combined 42% favorable view and a combined 56% unfavorable view. A net -14% approval.
Now, All Voters have a combined 32% favorable view and a combined 57% unfavorable view. A net -25% approval.
An 11 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, Men had a combined 45% favorable view and a combined 54% unfavorable view. A net -9% approval.
Now, Men have a combined 32% favorable view and a combined 61% unfavorable view. A net -29% approval.
A 20 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, Women had a combined 40% favorable view and a combined 58% unfavorable view. A net -18% approval.
Now, Women have a combined 31% favorable view and a combined 55% unfavorable view. A net -24% approval.
A 6 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, White Men w/no Degree had a combined 54% favorable view and a combined 43% unfavorable view. Net +11%.
Now, White Men w/no Degree have a combined 34% favorable view and a combined 60% unfavorable view.
Net -26%.
A 37 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, White Men w/Degrees had a combined 43% favorable view and a combined 56% unfavorable view. Net -13%.
Now, White Men w/Degrees have a combined 32% favorable view and a combined 63% unfavorable view. Net -31%.
A 18 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, White Women w/no Degree had a combined 53% favorable view and a combined 45% unfavorable view. Net +8%.
Now, White Women w/no Degree have a combined 40% favorable view and a combined 43% unfavorable view. Net -3% approval.
A 11 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, White Women w/Degrees had a combined 39% favorable view and a combined 61% unfavorable view. Net -22%.
Now, White Women w/Degrees have a combined 30% favorable view and a combined 64% unfavorable view. Net -34%.
A 12 point drop.
Republican Party:
In November, Black voters had a combined 20% favorable view and a combined 75% unfavorable view. A net -55% approval.
Now, Black voters have a combined 17% favorable view and a combined 70% unfavorable view. A net -53% approval.
A 2 point gain.
Republican Party:
In November, Hispanic voters had a combined 37% favorable view and a combined 61% unfavorable view. A net -24% approval.
Now, Hispanic voters have a combined 35% favorable view and a combined 48% unfavorable view. A net -13% approval.
An 11 point gain.
Now the Democrats. Who aren't doing that well either but are doing better in most categories than the Republicans.
Democratic Party:
In November, All Voters had a combined 47% favorable view and a combined 51% unfavorable view. A net -4% approval.
Now, All Voters have a combined 39% favorable view and a combined 49% unfavorable view. A net -10% approval.
A 6 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, Men had a combined 42% favorable view and a combined 57% unfavorable view. A net -15% approval.
Now, Men have a combined 37% favorable view and a combined 55% unfavorable view. A net -18% approval.
A 3 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, Women had a combined 51% favorable view and a combined 46% unfavorable view. A net 5% approval.
Now, Women have a combined 42% favorable view and a combined 43% unfavorable view. A net -1% approval.
A 6 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, White Men w/no Degree had a combined 30% favorable view and a combined 69% unfavorable view. A net -39% approval.
Now, White Men w/no Degree have a combined 27% favorable view and a combined 66% unfavorable view. A net -39% approval.
No change.
Democratic Party:
In November, White Men w/Degrees had a combined 39% favorable view and a combined 61% unfavorable view. Net -22%.
Now, White Men w/Degrees have a combined 42% favorable view and a combined 53% unfavorable view. Net -11%.
An 11 point gain.
Democratic Party:
In November, White Women w/no Degree had a combined 38% favorable view and a combined 60% unfavorable view. Net -22%.
Now, White Women w/no Degree have a combined 30% favorable view and a combined 54% unfavorable view. Net -24%.
A 2 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, White Women w/Degrees had a combined 53% favorable view and a combined 48% unfavorable view. A net 5% approval.
Now, White Women w/Degrees have a combined 49% favorable view and a combined 46% unfavorable view. A net 3% approval.
A 2 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, Black voters had a combined 76% favorable view and a combined 21% unfavorable view. A net 55% approval.
Now, Black voters have a combined 58% favorable view and a combined 29% unfavorable view. A net 29% approval.
A 26 point drop.
Democratic Party:
In November, Hispanic voters had a combined 57% favorable view and a combined 40% unfavorable view. A net 17% approval.
Now, Hispanic voters have a combined 49% favorable view and a combined 34% unfavorable view. A net 15% approval.
A 2 point drop.
Now anyone who follows me as I follow this particular poll probably can see that the numbers bounce around from week to week. It probably depends on the panel of respondents who get picked and has some variability.
But there are a couple of constants.
As bad as the GOP has done with white women and with white men with college degrees, it seems from multiple weeks of seeing this poll that the GOP is also having some issues with white men.
The Democrats seem to be having issues with black voters.
Not sure why for either.
But if you boil it down for group, comparing what this particular poll said about what people think about the two parties since November 2nd, 2020 until this week, you get, by group:
All voters
- GOP dropped 11 points (now -25 net favorable)
- Dems dropped 6 points (now -10 net favorable)
Men
- GOP dropped 20 points (now -29 net favorable)
- Dems dropped 3 points (now -18 net favorable)
Women
- GOP dropped 6 points (now -24 net favorable)
- Dems dropped 6 points (now -1 net favorable)
White Men w/no Degrees
- GOP dropped 37 points (now -26 net favorable)
- Dems no change (now -39 net favorable)
White Men w/Degrees
- GOP dropped 18 points (now -31 net favorable)
- Dems gained 11 points (now -11 net favorable)
White Women w/no Degrees
- GOP dropped 11 points (now -3 net favorable)
- Dems dropped 2 points (now -24 net favorable)
White Women w/Degrees
- GOP dropped 12 points (now -34 net approval)
- Dems dropped 2 points (now +3 net approval)
Black voters
- GOP gained 2 points (now -53 net approval)
- Dems dropped 26 points (now +29 net approval)
Hispanic voters
- GOP gained 11 points (now -13 net approval)
- Dems dropped 2 points (now +15 net approval)
Don't know the reasons for any of this or how things will trend in the future. But this is what the numbers say this week in this particular poll.
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“Commemorated annually on June 19th, Juneteenth is the oldest known celebration of the end of slavery in the U.S. The Emancipation Proclamation issued by President Abraham Lincoln Sep. 22, 1862, announced, …
… ‘that on the 1st day of January A.D. 1863, all persons held as slaves within any state…in rebellion against the U.S. shall be then, thenceforward and forever free.’ However, it would take the Civil War and passage of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to end …
… the brutal institution of African America slavery.
After the Civil War ended in April 1865 most slaves in Texas were still unaware of their freedom. This began to change when Union troops arrived in Galveston. …
In case you’re wondering why the GOP is so intent on making it harder for people to vote, just look at the Senate itself. Rick Scott won his seat by only 10,033 votes in 2018.
Could making it harder to vote help them when close elections by discouraging that many voters? Yes!
Ted Cruz won his seat by only 2.57 points in 2018. In Texas and against a liberal.
Brian Kemp won the Georgia Governorship in 2018 by only 1.4 points or 54,723 votes. Way too close for southern comfort.
In 2020, the GOP won four US House seats by less than a point.
Making it more difficult for people to vote discourages voting. Which can alter the outcome of close races. In states where the GOP statistically does worse the more people vote.
The last time a Republican Presidential candidate won both the Electoral College and the Popular Vote was in 2004. And Bush barely won.
There are four states which went red that year which the GOP hasn’t won since: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.
Obama won them in 2008 and 2012. Clinton won them in 2016. And Biden won them in 2020 while picking up Arizona and Georgia along the way along with Nebraska’s Second Congressional District (Trump won Maine’s Second Congressional District).
Without those states, Bush wouldn’t have won re-election in 2004. And no Republican has won them since Bush won them in 2004.
Trump won in 2016 because he eked out very slim victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020 those states reverted to blue.
Let's talk for a minute about the wackiness of 14 members of the House GOP voting against making Juneteenth a Federal Holiday.
Firstly, some in the so-called Party of Lincoln oppose a holiday that celebrates the end of slavery, set in motion by ... (checks notes) ... Lincoln?
Secondly, 3 of the 14 members who voted "no" are from Texas. Which is extra weird because Juneteenth originated in Texas. And Texas was the first state in the United States to make Juneteenth a state holiday.
There are currently 22 GOP members of the House from Texas. And 3 of them - 13.6% of the state's delegation, oppose making a holiday that originated in their state and is currently a holiday there a national holiday. Because - and here's the kicker - it would be "divisive?"
General observation: the dumbest and craziest members of Congress seem to generally come from the safest districts.
There are a lot of districts where having a (D) or an (R) after their name is all the qualification a candidate really needs in a General Election.
Any doofus or sociopath who can manage to win their party’s primary can be assured perpetual employment in Congress no matter what they do or don’t do.
And if they keep the party bosses and electorate happy, they won’t even face serious primary challenges.
Could a successful company be run the way we run our country? By hiring managers the way we elect our political leaders? Where nothing really matters except for tribal membership?
In the last 30 years, every time the party holding the White House has lost more than three of the states that it won during the last election, that party has lost the Presidential Election.
Trump lost 5 states (and Nebraska's Second CD*) in 2020 that he won in 2016.
Regardless of whether the incumbent President ran for re-election (like Trump in 2020) or is term-limited (like Obama in 2016), no one since 1988 has won a Presidential Election after losing more than 3 states their party won the last time.
And, of course, the explanation for Trump's losses of the five states that he lost in 2020 is incredibly simple - even if you don't go into things like his approval rating, exit polls, etc. #TrumpLost