1/ V highly recommend this note by Jeremy Grantham predicting we're in late stage of 1929-style crazy bull market. Was sent it by hedge funder & don't think I ought to post full document but I encourage ppl to try to get hands on it!
2/ Tesla's absurd price, the "Buffett indicator" (total stock market capitalization to GDP) has broken thro its all-time-high 2000 record, bonds even more spectacularly expensive by historical comparison than stocks...
3/ 'the P/E ratio of the market is in the top few percent of the historical range and the economy is in
the worst few percent. This is completely without precedent'
4/ Fascinating re incentives of big institutions/error-correction: big institutions didn't call out Japan even when PE ratio x65!! So don't expect Goldman to shout 'bubble, sell'
5/ For clarity this was written in Jan. Only just read now. But this isn't point (other than obv re Tesla which has dropped a lot) - he's comparing overall situation of past few years to historic market crises... What's the best thing written taking opposite view...?
1/ Pundit babble pollutes understanding & MP/official incentives. Want to improve your understanding of politics? Stop reading these pundit babblers. They don't understand political communication, never mind *how power actually works in SW1*. Typical e.g - overconfident + wrong
2/ Watch how all the drone-babblers today suddenly have 'explanations' for what they can't predict. It's all bullshit, all the way down. If you want to get anything big done in politics you must learn to tune out the noisy hum of the drones...
3/ Wait for it... The Clown Prince himself, the epistemological Godfather of the lobby, will doubtless soon be 'explaining' electoral geography. If you rely on pundit-drones to 'explain' SW1 you are doomed to follow the ephemeral emotional waves of the lobby's constant hysteria
1/ Fascinating report by a world leading mathematician, P Scholze, on an open source project to use 'proof assistants' on an important maths proof. Byproduct = the computer improved human understanding. Seems clear these tools will play ever greater role xenaproject.wordpress.com/2021/06/05/hal…
2/ Concept of 'proof assistants' goes back to e.g Hilbert's 1900 question on the possibility of automating maths & Gödel's 1931 proof re incompleteness/undecidability. I got very interested in this history & wrote about it here: dominiccummings.com/2017/06/16/com…
3/ Almost everything you read re Gödel is wrong. Franzen wrote a brilliant book explaining all the misconceptions:
1/ Covid… Summary evidence on lockdowns. For UK political pundits obsessed with spreading nonsense on Sweden/lockdowns, cf. SW econ did a bit WORSE than Denmark which locked down, AND far more deaths in Sweden: noahpinion.substack.com/p/yes-lockdown…
One of the biggest misunderstandings, spread by political pundits even now, is the ‘tradeoff’ argument. Fact: evidence clear that fast hard effective action best policy for economy AND for reducing deaths/suffering
.@paulg always great but he makes a mistake that is v common among vv successful people: 'politicians are domain experts in political tactics, like how to get elected'. Weird but true: most know *surprisingly little* re how to get elected, campaigns are often provably irrational
If you want examples then I highly recommend this with @juliagalef@davidshor. NB. you hardly ever see how politics/power really works in mainstream media. You have to look elsewhere for useful info: static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/46827…
E.g PM's private secretary on econ, SG, has more influence on what happens than any in Cabinet except PM/CHX. PM's PS on EU, JE, more influence on Brexit negotiations than any in Cabinet except PM. You'll find literally 0 coverage or explanation of such important facts in media
When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction
Eg. 2014 dominiccummings.com/2014/06/30/my-… & 2016, CTRL+F centre ground - dominiccummings.com/2017/01/09/on-…. Vote Leave strategy in 16 & 19 was based on SW1 theories re ‘centre ground’ = false. SW1 didn’t learn after 2016 & provided a chance for us to win again in 19, ignoring pundit howling
KS is a beta-lawyer-gamma-politician, like ~all in SW1 he obsesses on Media Reality not Actual Reality, he’s played the lobby game (badly) for a year WITHOUT A MESSAGE TO THE COUNTRY, now the pundits will a/ savage him, b/ tell him he needs to focus on them more, more exclusives!