Thread by @BethRigby

I grew up in neighbouring constituency & this part of world always been true blue

B4 now, Tories always won C&A with 10k+ majority

Big Q is whether this beginning of trend (hint of this in local elex) of southern Tory voters feeling forgotten by Johnson’s focus on ‘red wall’

https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1405757825893036036

More on Amersham & Chesham result (via @IslaGlaister)

🔸Third highest Con to LD swing (25.1%) following Christchurch (35.4% in 1993) & Newbury (28.4% again in 1993)

🔸 Second highest increase in Lib Dem vote share (up 30.4%) after Christchurch in 1993 (up 38.6%)

Amersham & Chesham cont.

• For LABOUR smallest share of vote (1.6%) in any by-election since war

• 5th largest swing Lab to Lib Dem (20.9%)

• First time since 1992-1997 parliament (Christchurch & Newbury) that the first two by-elections have resulted in seats changing hands

Huge local factors at play in Amersham & Chesham. HS2 & planning are big issues

But to lose this forever safe Tory seat, always with a 10k+ majority, is a shock.

Qs about whether this sign of younger, urban liberal bleed from cities into Home Counties/disgruntled ‘blue wall’

Also important to add that turnout in Amersham & Chesham down 24.6% on general election. So lots of GE Tory voters didn’t bother to turn out - perhaps couldn’t be bothered/thought it rock solid/fed up with party.

Lib Dem machine clearly organised the opposition.