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4 May, 7 tweets, 4 min read
NEW Sky News/Opinium polling
- Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20
- Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum
- 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)
Via @SamCoatesSky
news.sky.com/story/election…
Outright SNP majority nightmare for UK govt. Despite Tory assertions #indyref would be "illegal" without Westminster's consent, govt insiders concede more complicated than that - UK govt WOULD have to challenge Scot Gov down in Supreme Court, can't just ignore 1/
UK govt clear UK's constitution reserved for Westminster. But govt insiders concede UK govt little option but to go to block #indyref if the Scottish government passes legislation for a referendum. 2/
Under devo settlement, if law passed in Holyrood goes beyond scope of the devolved administration's power, UK govt has 4wks weeks to decide whether to challenge it in Supreme Court, which makes it almost inevitable UK govt'll have to go to court to strike down the legislation 3/
UK govt already threatening to go to Supreme Court to overturn two pieces of legislation unanimously backed by MSPs. More detail here 4/

scottishlegal.com/article/uk-gov…
In our @skynews interview, this is what @NicolaSturgeon had to say about #indyref2: "If Boris Johnson wants to stop [the referendum], he would have to take legal action. If [he] didn't do that, by definition it would be a legal
news.sky.com/story/nicola-s…
Which leads me to this: Why an outright majority is a huge prize for Sturgeon and nationalists, and a nightmare for Boris Johnson's government. news.sky.com/story/scottish…

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More from @BethRigby

Beth Rigby Profile picture
3 May
Our film on the battle for Scotland and what it means for the UK, kicks off bumper week of election coverage on @SkyNews from around the country

Catch our film on @SkyNews through the day (or a shorter version in the 10pm news)

Filmed by dream team @VeryBigNews & @camera_sam
What’s to come if SNP take Holyrood. Sturgeon throws down gauntlet to PM: If UK govt doesn’t challenge the Scot govt in court, referendum wld be legal. Govt insiders concede there’s no choice but to fight in court, with all the political danger that brings
news.sky.com/story/nicola-s…
ANALYSIS: For Johnson, an outright SNP victory is nothing short of a nightmare. It puts future of the 300-year Union into play. It is a fight that the PM can neither ignore nor afford to lose: Is there a worse legacy than being the PM who lost the Union?
news.sky.com/story/scottish…
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
23 Apr
Cummings on chatty rat/lockdown leak: If Newman is confirmed as the leaker then I will have to fire him, and this will cause some very serious probs with Carrie as they’re best friends”
Cummings on the lockdown leak. Says PM tried to block inquiry: “I told him that he could not possibly cancel an inquiry about a leak that affected millions of people, just because it might implicate his girlfriend’s friends”

Adds PM “knows that I was not the source of the leak”
And on the flat refurbishment: “I told him I thought his plans to have donors secretly pay for the renovation were unethical, foolish, possibly illegal and almost certainly broke the rules on proper disclosure”
Read 4 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
14 Nov 20
So much drama in No 10 this week, all happening as Brexit reaches endgame. Frost was deeply unhappy over Cain’s resignation but did not resign (after I’m told the PM called him Weds night). But talks stalled last week, pushing back deadline EU/EU Parl had set for deal (Nov 16) 1/
What next for Brexit?
EU source says talks ‘went badly’ last wk & ‘no progress’ Brussels view is UK going to try to run down clock & try to square circle on final issues at eleventh hour to see what they can get. Deadline reset to Nov 19 but told cld slip further to Nov 23 2/
State of talks
1/ UK want EU to go further on LPF. EU cld concede more on Fin Servs. Work being done still on state aid
2/ Fishing. Talks ongoing on what rights EU boats have to UK waters/quotas. Working up 5-7 yr framework. 1st 3 yrs more quota to UK/better access to EU waters
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
11 Nov 20
Why is the Cain resignation so fascinating? Because it speaks to wider question of the changing of guard within No 10. Has PM now come to end of road with his Vote Leave team? 1/
A senior govt figure told me tonight on the Q of whether Cummings might decide too to go with his close ally Cain: “We can live without Dom” > this is the view of course of many many of Johnson’s MPs and senior ministers 2/
I’m also told by a senior govt figure that the PM wanted to change the mood within a No 10 and govt growing evermore in opposition to his party. Allegra Stratton appointment as press secretary (made by PM directly) spoke to that - and was not welcomed by Cain 3/
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
10 Nov 20
ANALYSIS From Trump’s Brexit-backing, Johnson back-slapping White House to v different administration under Biden. Will the change put squeeze on PM’s Brexit plan? Insiders admit the short-term politics may be bumpy but Biden win better than Trump 2nd term news.sky.com/story/will-joe…
On Brexit negotiations, govt insiders clear that Biden win (and implications for the IMB, US-UK trade deal if No Deal with EU) don’t change strategy and UK has to have trade deal that works for it ‘home & aboard’ (has to be able to sell to domestic audience) 2/
But picked up view too at top of govt that Biden win does change the impetus for EU/UK deal. Two senior sources telling me think it makes it ‘more likely’ - more stability/predictability and the Trump ‘distraction’ (UK plan B?) gone 3/
Read 5 tweets
Beth Rigby Profile picture
20 Oct 20
On failure to reach a deal from GM perspective: Govt set the limit at £60m because then the extra GM funding wld be equivalent to that of Lancashire (based on population). PM said he most he could do was £60m despite Burnham being clear £65m was absolute minimum he’d need 1/
GM leaders calculated that to provide 80% furlough scheme & 80% self employed support until end of financial year, they’d need £90m (£15m/month). That was the ask. Came down to £75m. But calculated £65m was absolute minimum required & anything less would leave GM underfunded. 2/
On the talks. PM offered £60m and asked Burnham to put that to the rest of the GM leaders. Explained position and the GM leaders supported Burnham position. The second phone call between PM & Burnham didn’t happen 3/
Read 5 tweets

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