Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #indyref
Most recents (24)
My latest 'investigation' into poll weightings has found some interesting insights into Yougov #Indyref2 polls. Yougov seem to have fallen asleep at the polling wheel in April 2019, only to awake nearly 4 years later realising demographic change was afoot. (1/3) 
In November 2022 (probably after a nudge from the Scottish Election Study) they realised that those darned electors had been sneakily ageing and upped the New voter share by 5 points. (2/3)
Then in December 22 they seem to have gone completely off-piste: upped the New voter figure by another 3 points and abandoned their 2014 #Indyref weighting - meaning a record low No weighting of 40%. Not surprisingly this led to a record Yes figure of 47% in that poll. (3/3)
So ahead of today's main š§µfor fun my top 10 of the #indyref pops.
1/Andrew Fairlie šOut at 55 Truly the best of us, there he was in 2014 running the 5 āļøGleneagles restaurant ''Alison call me anytime you want and if I can I'll help out with interviews'' True gent, so humble/
1/Andrew Fairlie šOut at 55 Truly the best of us, there he was in 2014 running the 5 āļøGleneagles restaurant ''Alison call me anytime you want and if I can I'll help out with interviews'' True gent, so humble/
This won't be popular and I know he can be rather pompous in public BUT privately different, so
2/ Pat Kane, he really put in a shift in 2014, could not have been more helpful, did everything he could to lessen my workload, which was eh rather heavy/
2/ Pat Kane, he really put in a shift in 2014, could not have been more helpful, did everything he could to lessen my workload, which was eh rather heavy/
3/Joanna Cherry KC, always available when asked and she was a working legal š¦
in 2014
4/Aberdeen's Kenny Anderson, businessman super lad, James Cook featured him in various TV packages, aye #SNP blocked his candidacy ahead of the 2015 GE, aye like me too much, too challenging š”/
4/Aberdeen's Kenny Anderson, businessman super lad, James Cook featured him in various TV packages, aye #SNP blocked his candidacy ahead of the 2015 GE, aye like me too much, too challenging š”/
1. This morningās Supreme Court decision brings long awaited legal clarity. Dismissing the UKās gov argument that it couldnāt rule on the matter, the Court certified that in the absence of Westminsterās approval the Scottish Parliament can't pass legislation for a new #IndyRef
2. They argue that even in advisory ref a āclear expression" of the Scottish electorate "would strengthen or weaken the democratic legitimacy of the Unionā. Court didnāt comment on the fact that Scottish electorate has voted for new #indyref clearly and repeatedly since Brexit
3. By the Court's argument, each and any of those elections already weakened the ādemocratic legitimacy of the Unionā. Truth is that the longer Westminster deny Scotland a choice, the weaker the democratic legitimacy of the Union will be. Ball is now firmly in Westminster's court
Some reflections from me on todayās new #IndyRef economics paperā¦ Important to emphasise at the outset that this is a paper setting out what the Scottish Government *would like* to happen after a successful independence voteā¦
ā¦if the #Brexit negotiations taught us anything, it is that there can be a bit of a gap between what either side of a negotiation wants, and what the negotiation actually produces once they start working through the detailsā¦
Similarly, the past few weeks have demonstrated that financial markets are unsentimental in their assessment of the credibility of the fiscal plans that a government announces. This will be a key concern for a newly independent Scotland.
The Unionist right wing press seem to be getting themselves over-excited about an #indyref2 poll from the Sun. They claim it shows a big drop in support for independence. It doesnāt. Hereās a š§µ as to why.
Firstly, the sample is smaller than the normal Scotland wide polling sample of about 1,000. This means that the margin of error will be higher (4.4 points compared with 3), and the actual % figures quoted will be less reliable.
Also as @WhatScotsThink note, there is no previous #indyref2 poll from this company to compare with. This is important because each pollster has its own approach to weighting & determining likelihood to vote. This means comparing polls from different pollsters is problematic.
8th Indyref anniversary, and much to ponder . .
"What is the process for removing our EU citizenship" Voting Yes."
"What is the process for removing our EU citizenship" Voting Yes."
"No means faster, better, safer change for Scotland"
"Higher food prices if you vote Yes"
Scotland under the SNP.
Since Nicola Sturgeon became FM, Scotland has descended into an authoritarian nightmare.
English commentators and colleagues may think this is hyperboleā¦
But is it?
A Short THREAD
Since Nicola Sturgeon became FM, Scotland has descended into an authoritarian nightmare.
English commentators and colleagues may think this is hyperboleā¦
But is it?
A Short THREAD
One of the first things Nicola Sturgeon did when she became FM was to silence dissent among her rivals and allies in her own party, the SNP.
Seriously, talk out of line and you are toast.
You can bullshit about #indyref but not Chief Mammy.
Seriously, talk out of line and you are toast.
You can bullshit about #indyref but not Chief Mammy.
This view has been described as āStalinistā by some of our braver journalists.
Transparency and democracy?
Donāt be daft.
Transparency and democracy?
Donāt be daft.
It's time for my #Christmas2021 gift guide! I thought it might be a good idea to guide you through the work I've made over seven years of @indy_prints and then share some other small businesses. [a thread] ššš
@indy_prints Before I get to the good stuff, I want to note that it's been a difficult year for many of us, and while you might have less to spend, I hope you that when you do spend you'll consider supporting these small businesses, rather than the shareholders of big corporations.
I've been buying my presents from real people for a few years now and it feels so much more satisfying. I'd be grateful if you would join me.
Okay. Preaching over, now the goodsā¦
Okay. Preaching over, now the goodsā¦
The SNPās relationship with Europe.
A thread.
A thread.
Letās travel back to 1975.
When the EEC (as it was then) in/out referendum was held, the SNP wanted Scotland (and Britain) out of the EEC.
Interesting quote from Alex Salmond below.
When the EEC (as it was then) in/out referendum was held, the SNP wanted Scotland (and Britain) out of the EEC.
Interesting quote from Alex Salmond below.
After being dealt a bloody nose by being blamed for bringing down Callaghanās Labour Government and ushering in Maggie Thatcher, the SNP struggled in the wilderness during the 1980s.
In 1988 they eventually came up with a new idea:
āIndependence in Europeā
In 1988 they eventually came up with a new idea:
āIndependence in Europeā
Ungagged have been saying this for months. This is a great thread, not one we'd seen before today.
Thread šš¾ (1/13)
Thread šš¾ (1/13)
As others have said, the Cult of the Wings Over #Indyref mouth foamers, have looked shaky of late, turning in and on themselves. But. Again, as we've said, and others are now saying, the cult MUST be maintained, so just as religious cults do, political cults must make diverging
cult members extremely uncomfortable. With threats, and of course with their isolationist block lists. Scientology does this, jehovahs witnesses do this, as do other cultish religions. The cult must be pure. The power of the cult must be built, not weakened... And whatever
"THE āonce in a generationā phrase parroted by Conservatives in their attempt to block a second independence vote is nothing but a slogan and has no constitutional relevance, one of the architects of the Edinburgh Agreement has said."
"The context of Northern Ireland with the ending of the Troubles then raises an interesting point. Northern Ireland has, under British law, a guarantee that the Secretary of State will consider any fresh referendum on Irish unity 7 years after an initial referendum."
If a similar definition of a 'political' generation were applied to the will of the Scottish people to pursue #ScottishIndependence š“ó §ó ¢ó ³ó £ó “ó æ, 7 years will have lapsed since #indyref 2014, on 18 September 2021.
NEW Sky News/Opinium polling
- Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20
- Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum
- 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)
Via @SamCoatesSky
news.sky.com/story/electionā¦
- Seat projections: SNP on for outright majority with 67 seats. Con on 29, Lab on 20
- Scots tied 50-50 on support for indy referendum
- 28% want #indyref within 2 yrs (SNP pledged to hold ref by end 2024)
Via @SamCoatesSky
news.sky.com/story/electionā¦
Outright SNP majority nightmare for UK govt. Despite Tory assertions #indyref would be "illegal" without Westminster's consent, govt insiders concede more complicated than that - UK govt WOULD have to challenge Scot Gov down in Supreme Court, can't just ignore 1/
UK govt clear UK's constitution reserved for Westminster. But govt insiders concede UK govt little option but to go to block #indyref if the Scottish government passes legislation for a referendum. 2/
"Not for the first time, the Tories have been accused of proposing new laws which strongly resemble fascism."
"Meanwhile, all of this is coming from a government which appears to be simultaneously seeking to dictate how Britainās history is told."
"Meanwhile, all of this is coming from a government which appears to be simultaneously seeking to dictate how Britainās history is told."
"Jason Stanley, a philosophy professor at Yale University, succinctly summed up his thoughts on the current state of affairs by highlighting two short passages of his book, How Fascism Works: The Politics of Us and Them."
āHereās whatās happening in the UK right now,ā he wrote on Twitter, showing two graphics highlighting key aspects of fascism.
The latest poll from @ProgressScot actually now shows a majority back the union again. This has been missed because it's been buried in the data tables and using a radical weighting technique to benefit the yes side.
This thread explains what's going on.
This thread explains what's going on.
Changes to polling weighting have been vexing me for a while, and I couldn't quite put my finger on what was going on.
The latest data set from ComRes and Progress Scotland gave it away.
comresglobal.com/polls/scottishā¦
The latest data set from ComRes and Progress Scotland gave it away.
comresglobal.com/polls/scottishā¦
Previously polls were weighted by those intending to vote, you would do this by effectively excluding those below 6 on a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is certain to vote.
But ComRes and @ProgressScot have changed that, no doubt influenced by the expertise of @markdiffley1
But ComRes and @ProgressScot have changed that, no doubt influenced by the expertise of @markdiffley1
š¤Ø An unambiguously British nationalist image from the party political broadcast for Scottish Labour.
This comes from a place of attempting to emulate the Tories as much as possible in the hope that Brexit backing seats in the North of England will return to Labour.
Itās a curious choice to broadcast this type of imagery in Scotland when sections of Scottish Labourās support are pro-independence, 20 polls in a row show majority support for Scottish independence, and the obvious political connotations the flag has in parts of Scotland.
Some follow up thoughts on a great piece by Andrew Tickell: How Scots have learned to love independence in 2020 thenational.scot/news/18970919.ā¦
Andrew says; āNow, the idea of independence in the lead and the Union in retreat is a banal fact of Scottish life.ā As others have pointed out this has parallels with where we were with #devolution post the 1992 General election.
But then, Scotland had to wait for Westminster to catch up with us before we got devolution. 5 years passed before a party that supported devolution came to power at Westminster and held a referendum
The #Nationalist and anti-immigration agenda that drove #LeaveEU will face many (at least to them) unpleasant surprises in decades to come. If we are to trade with nations from all over the globe we must expect to relax immigration controls. I have no problem with that.
It reveals the abject incoherence in the #LeaveEU cohorts. Free traders, who advocate rigid borders on immigration (some motivated by aversion to diversity or race) are living in a dream world.
Moreover, those who despised a supranational Europe, are now facing serious scrutiny: #NorthernIreland is de facto part of #Europe. Ditto #Gibraltar. Those who claim #Scotlandās quest for Independence is misconceived will be accused of rank hypocrisy.
As we twiddle our thumbs waiting for white smoke from Brussels, this prompted me to reflect on how badly business lost this game. Deal or not, whatever emerges, whenever it emerges, will be a million miles from what business hoped for. How did it go so badly wrong? š§µ(1/)
Iāve lost track of how many times Iāve been told over the last 5yrs that itās because business wasnāt loud enough. 1st during the referendum (though post-š³ļø analysis tends to agree the economic argument was won, it just wasnāt important enough). 2nd during the negotiations (2/)
Iāve said a lot about this in the past, ultimately - yes biz could have been louder. But there are many reasons why they werenāt.
And volume really isn't everything. Any lobbyist knows that youāre only loud when youāre already losing. Itās a symptom, not a cause, of loss (3/)
And volume really isn't everything. Any lobbyist knows that youāre only loud when youāre already losing. Itās a symptom, not a cause, of loss (3/)
An intelligent Yes voter speaks. It's fact that #indyref started with a Holyrood win based on an unconditional manifesto pledge 2 hold 1, ending with UK/ScotGov political commitment 2 implement the result. Whyās everyone so convinced it won't happen again? terryentoure.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-soā¦
Hereās @TerryEntoure again with another clinical view of the nonsense some of his ācolleaguesā, co independenistas, say, this time GMKemp from #BullshitForScotland, quite relevant with recent #Scexit announcements businessforscotland.com/a-2020-scottisā¦ - scroll up, read article, then this reply
I said voter, I meant supporter as it looks like he might not have been allowed to vote.......
The McTague article in the Atlantic on UK state failure read to me more like an introduction to an article on UK state failure ['maybe the UK state has failed, a lot of important people think so'] than an analysis of UK state failure.
It didn't get to the heart of what caused the late lockdown - the interplay between scientists relying on dubious behavioural insight that lockdown tolerance would not last long, and our politicians who could see all around them most governments acting on different advice.
There is now a mini industry trying to identify the effects of the lockdown, on the epidemic and the economy, disentangling luck from policy. My take on it is that we did lock down too late, and paid the price. But there is a debate to be had and recounted.
Why Iām standing. - a thread.
Having previously served as Cllr in Greenock, I know how important a local voice is for a community.
In 2016 my partner and I moved to the constituency to raise our about-to-be-born daughter - who started nursery this week btw, how did that happen?!
Having previously served as Cllr in Greenock, I know how important a local voice is for a community.
In 2016 my partner and I moved to the constituency to raise our about-to-be-born daughter - who started nursery this week btw, how did that happen?!
We bought a house here - a home to raise our daughter. Weāre not leaving if I donāt get elected.
Iām the Convener of Lomond North SNP; I wasnāt born here but it is my home and I want to be that local voice Dumbarton needs.
Iām the Convener of Lomond North SNP; I wasnāt born here but it is my home and I want to be that local voice Dumbarton needs.
But also, with another #indyref coming *very* soon, I passionately believe we need an MSP who believes in independence and is willing to fight for it.
In 2014 Angel and I were supposed to be getting married.
We spent the time (and money!) on indyref. We launched @EnglishScot4YES
In 2014 Angel and I were supposed to be getting married.
We spent the time (and money!) on indyref. We launched @EnglishScot4YES
The Intelligence & Security Committee or ISC has promised to release the long delayed #RussiaReport by Wednesday - so what should we expect? A thread ... 1/7
It's about the Russian threat to the UK, incl military activities close to our air & sea space, cyber, intelligence ops incl the Salisbury poisoning, as well as political interference. Given this breadth of scope, passages on Brexit or party funding may be quite brief 2/7
The open section of the #RussiaReport is thought to be about 50 pages long. There's an annexe of classified materiel that will remain secret but even the published part has had 'extensive redactions' by both the intelligence agencies & No10. We won't know who cut what 3/7
ā¼ļøā»ļø After the International call to protect the rights of prosecuted #Catalan civic and political leaders, #Spain is positioning agents in @UN and @EUroparl_en decision-making boards, directly putting in danger the protection of human rights.
1/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
1/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
ā¼ļøā»ļø Another new member of the @UN #HumanRights committee is #China, recently tarnished by the #Uyghur concentration camps scandal. Digital gag laws, political persecution and police abuses are also in #Spain's track record.
2/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
2/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
ā¼ļøā»ļø In 2017, @UN experts Annalisa Ciampi, @leilanifarha, @Alfreddezayas & JosĆ© A. Guevara, urged #Spain to stop police violence against #Catalan #indyref voters, while @davidakaye advised not to persecute political figures.
3/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
ohchr.org/en/newsevents/ā¦
3/9
#StandUpForCatalonia
ohchr.org/en/newsevents/ā¦
This week, Holyrood finally recognised the right of prisoners serving terms of less than 12 months in jail to vote. And not before time - 15 years after the ECHR ruled the UK's blanket ban was disproportionate. In other countries this is uncontroversial.
thenational.scot/news/18254991.ā¦
thenational.scot/news/18254991.ā¦
Although the Government argue they've been forced by law to do this - which is substantially true - Labour and the SNP have clearly been on a bit of a political journey on this issue. Reading the official report, this didn't sound like pinching your nose & taking your medicine.
As recently as 2013, MSPs excluded all prisoners from the #indyref franchise, leading to the Moohan case in the UK Supreme Court. (The Justices, by majority, said this was lawful beause the right to vote under the ECHR doesn't extend to referendums). supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksā¦
