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18 Jun, 5 tweets, 3 min read
NEBRASKA: Republicans control redistricting and hold a 3-0 monopoly on House seats, but it's high steaks nonetheless - Omaha's #NE02 has been highly competitive and Biden captured its lone Electoral Vote in 2020.
Pretty much the only way for the GOP unicameral to wrest #NE02 back into the red column would be to split Omaha. Adding the rest of Sarpy Co. (Bellevue) to #NE02 and moving Omaha's bluest precincts into #NE03 (below) would flip #NE02 from Biden +6 to Trump +1.
However, splitting up Omaha and diluting its Black vote could run into stiff opposition from civic groups & potentially courts. We'll see how it unfolds.
I should add, the map above might not be the limit of how aggressive Republicans could get. In the example below, all three districts including #NE02 would've voted for Trump by 12+ points in 2020.
As some commenters have noted, Republicans are slightly short of a filibuster-proof majority in the (technically nonpartisan) unicameral (~32R-17D), so that would be the main constraint on this type of hyper-aggression.

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Dave Wasserman Profile picture
18 Jun
NEVADA: Dems hold a 3D-1R lead in House seats and control redistricting here for the first time ever. But they'll need to shore up #NV03 and #NV04 in the Las Vegas suburbs, both of which they held by <5 pts in 2020.
The easiest way to do that? Shift heavily GOP parts of Henderson & Centennial Hills into the downtown Las Vegas #NV01 (Biden +25, left) - which would make both #NV03 and #NV04 about 5 pts bluer (right) while #NV01 would remain safe.
The only complication? Hispanic state legislators might object to reducing the Latino % in #NV01, where former state Sen. Yvanna Cancela (D) is expected to run when Rep. Dina Titus (D) decides to leave.

In the hypothetical above (right), #NV01's Latino share would remain >40%.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
17 Jun
I don’t think an independent commission mandate would be workable in time for the current redistricting cycle.

But, provisions banning unnecessary splits of counties/subdivisions could be and, while not eliminating gerrymandering, would help rein in its most extreme excesses.
Simple, easy-to-follow rules - i.e., "if X districts can fit within a county, they must be drawn" and "only split the minimum number of municipalities necessary to create equally populous districts" - would go a long way, and would probably have the best chance of passing.
And, contrary to the situation 20-30 years ago, I'd argue rules like these would not only rein in the most extreme gerrymandering but would be *increase* minority opportunities to win congressional seats...
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
10 Jun
MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t thearp.org).
However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
11 May
In 2013, Ken Cuccinelli (R) only lost Fairfax County to Terry McAuliffe (D) by 22 points. If Glenn Youngkin (R) can spend enough in DC to keep his deficit there in the same range, he'd have a chance, given rural VA's drift right since. Still uphill for Rs.
To put it in perspective: a 22 pt margin sounds like a lot, but Northam (D) won it by 37 in 2017 and Biden won it by 42. This fall will test whether the blue shift is permanent up and down the ballot, or back to being more elastic w/ Trump out of office. #VAGOV
Another huge suburban battleground Youngkin would need to snap back: Virginia Beach, which voted for Cuccinelli by 2 pts in 2013 but Northam by 5 pts in 2017. Unlike the past two GOP nominees, Youngkin has roots in Hampton Roads - which could be helpful. #VAGOV
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
28 Apr
MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here's why...
In 2018, the GOP gerrymander crumbled and Ds picked up two suburban Detroit seats, #MI08 and #MI11. But now, every seat needs to expand. And w/ two Black majority seats to preserve (#MI13 and #MI14 below), there may not be enough blue turf left to protect all four suburban Ds.
For example, it's possible #MI09 Rep. Andy Levin (D) & #MI11 Rep. Haley Stevens (D) get thrown together (below), and #MI08 Rep. Elissa Slotkin is forced to run in a swingy, much more Lansing-centric seat. In the words of one House Dem, "I'm worried we've outkicked our coverage."
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
16 Apr
Interesting: to stop Republicans from engaging in delay tactics, Democrats in the Oregon state legislature have struck a deal to relinquish total control over redistricting.

Oregon is slated to gain a sixth House seat in '22, so this could be a big deal. opb.org/article/2021/0…
To be clear, I should have said "exclusive" control over redistricting. There will now be equal numbers of Ds & Rs on redistricting committees, which increases the likelihood Oregon courts will draw the new map.
Why is this such a big deal for Congress in 2022? If a court were drawing a compact, partisan-blind Oregon map, they might end up drawing 3/6 seats that at least *lean* Republican (below).
Read 4 tweets

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