Thread by @chrisprener

I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Saturday, 6/19 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

Our statewide 7-day average is now the highest in the United States, and "outstate" is making up 69% of those new cases each day on average.

1/9

In Northern MO, things are slowly improving in the recently hard-hit trio of Putnam, Linn, and Livingston counties. Linn's 7-day average, however, remains in the top 10 nationwide for counties with more than 10,000 residents. 2/9

I'm concerned about cases shifting from these counties outward, though. Neighboring counties, like Grundy, Macon, and Mercer are worth watching. To the west near St. Jo, Worth County's rate has stopped growing, but there are four other counties showing newly upward trends. 3/9

On the fringes of the #KCMO metro, Caldwell County had been seeing its 7-day average fall but it is back up and at a high for 2021. We are also seeing counties on the edge of Mid-Missouri show signs of increases - Audrain and Callaway are worth watching. 4/9

Further south, around Lake of the Ozarks, Camden, Laclede, and Miller counties are all seeing their 7-day averages climb. In the Ozarks themselves, rates are climbing in both Texas and Wright counties. 5/9

And to the southwest, Polk County remains in the nationwide top 10 for 7-day averages in counties with more than 10,000 people. Almost every county I track between the Springfield and Joplin metros is experiencing a climbing 7-day average, too. 6/9

There are a few other hotspot counties scattered around, like Clark County in extreme NE MO. But as you can see from the map, Northern and Southwest MO (broadly defined) remain the areas of greatest concern. 7/9

One other thing to note - the New York Times also has Missouri as the state with the highest per capita hospitalization rates right now in the U.S.

Keep checking the tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi… - and I'll be back with a thread on Tuesday if not beforehand. 8/9

Also, my std caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 9/9