My recent summary of the latest PHE data raised some questions as to what I meant by saying that the 26 deaths needed to be seen in the context of the higher risk factors of those vaccinated to date.
So here's a short thread to explain...
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So here's a short thread to explain...
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https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1405823137187614722
The UK's vaccination priority order means that we've vaccinated those at greater risk first. Remember the "99% of deaths will be in Priority Groups 1 to 9" figure, often quoted, which originated in this bulletin from @COVID19actuary.
covid-arg.com/post/vaccine-p…
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covid-arg.com/post/vaccine-p…
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So the proportion of the population that now has double vaccination protection was many times more likely to die from COVID than those who still have only one dose or no vaccine protection. And we know that vaccines are not 100% effective.
Let's do a simple example next...
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Let's do a simple example next...
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I'm using round numbers to make it easier to follow. 100m population, half over 50, half under 50. Without vaccination 10% get infected and the death rate in the over 50s is 100 times that in the U50s.
So 99% of deaths are in the 50+s, like we saw here in the 1st wave.
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So 99% of deaths are in the 50+s, like we saw here in the 1st wave.
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Now we vaccinate the 50+s (100% take-up), but decide to defer doing the U-50s as the risk is lower.
With 95% efficacy, we still get some deaths in the 50+s, and in fact, there are still five times more deaths than in the U-50s, despite being vaccinated.
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With 95% efficacy, we still get some deaths in the 50+s, and in fact, there are still five times more deaths than in the U-50s, despite being vaccinated.
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It' would be very easy, either through lack of understanding or deliberately trying to mislead, to suggest that five times more deaths in those vaccinated means that vaccines don't work, or worse, are causing those deaths.
But it's completely wrong.
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But it's completely wrong.
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Of course, in reality we have bands of age groups at various stages in the programme, added to which we have some vaccine hesitancy which blurs the overall picture further. And in the Delta example, only around a third of deaths were fully vaccinated so far.
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But hopefully the example shows that just because there are people dying who have been fully vaccinated, and maybe it's a surprisingly high proportion of overall deaths, it doesn't mean that vaccination isn't effective - it is, particularly after that all important 2nd dose.
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