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21 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Monday vaccine update:

Always the quietest day of the week, 273k total reported today, down 17% due to the rapid fall in 2nd doses.

1st doses of 164k are up 11% as we work our way through the final youngest age groups. Speaking of which...

1/
Looking at those younger groups, we see that Scotland becomes the first to top 75% in the 30-39 band. Great news! Below 30, Wales is making very slow progress, suggesting it is going to max out at around 70%.

2/
Recent daily movements that show how Scotland is still pushing on with the Over 30s, in contrast to the other nations.

3/
Second doses continue to fall, the 109k reported down a massive 40%. But we were only doing around 100k a day in mid April, so unless we plan to accelerate further by reducing the 8 week gap, it's not particularly surprising.

4/4

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
20 Jun
Sunday vaccine update:

517k doses reported, down due to second doses falling (they've dropped back below 1st dose volumes in the last couple of days).

1st doses of 280k are only up 7%, but the 7D total is pushing up towards 1.5m a week which is good to see.

1/
An update on 1st doses at younger ages, shows most of the UK is now heading towards 75% in the 30-39 group.

Under 30 W is very close to 70% whereas the other nations still have some way to go to reach that level.

So W has nearly completed 1st doses for all who want it.

2/
Over recent days there's been little progress in W and E in the 30-39 group suggesting we're reaching the level of take-up we're going to see.

S in contrast looks to still be pushing ahead, and NI is lagging somewhat.

3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
20 Jun
My recent summary of the latest PHE data raised some questions as to what I meant by saying that the 26 deaths needed to be seen in the context of the higher risk factors of those vaccinated to date.

So here's a short thread to explain...

1/
The UK's vaccination priority order means that we've vaccinated those at greater risk first. Remember the "99% of deaths will be in Priority Groups 1 to 9" figure, often quoted, which originated in this bulletin from @COVID19actuary.
covid-arg.com/post/vaccine-p…

2/ Image
So the proportion of the population that now has double vaccination protection was many times more likely to die from COVID than those who still have only one dose or no vaccine protection. And we know that vaccines are not 100% effective.

Let's do a simple example next...

3/
Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Jun
It's not been a good day I'm afraid.

We've had the new PHE data that suggests that if you get the Delta variant you're 2 1/2 x more likely to be hospitalised (on top of known increased transmissibility and vaccine escape after 1 dose). It's now the dominant variant too.

1/
Today's reported cases are c50% up on a week ago, and the trend by specimen date is clearly one of an accelerating increase. And this is before we have any further relaxation of restrictions at the solstice.

2/
Much of the increase is in younger age groups, with increasing numbers of outbreaks in schools, nearly doubled in the latest week. But these infections will filter through to older groups, especially given increased transmissibility. At least it's half term this week.

3/
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
3 Jun
Thu vaccine update:
522k doses today, down over a fifth on last week, and the 6th consecutive day of falls, bringing the 7D total down from 4.2m to 3.5m in just 6 days.

1st doses of 173k are hit hardest today, down over a quarter, so the 7D total is now just 1.1m.

1/
2nd doses of 349k are down 18%, but on a positive note, after reaching 75% coverage of adults yesterday on 1st doses, today we pass the 50% mark of adults who have been fully vaccinated.

England next...

2/
We're now getting a daily age breakdown so unlike previous weeks, this is fully up to date, not 3 days behind.

We can see there's still someway to go to get all over 50s fully dosed.

Let's compare younger ages with the rest of the UK next...

3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
2 Jun
Interesting data from @ONS showing an increasing % of people saying they have complied with self-isolation requirements. It's up from 82% to 86% since March, and is at 96% following a positive test.

84% complied in the period between symptoms (where present) and result.

1/ Image
Of note there was no statistically significant difference by deprivation indicator in the proportion complying, maybe surprising given suggestions that loss of income may be a key factor.

2/
Around a third of those who didn't comply did so to go to work/school/university, so around 5% in total (and just 1% following the positive test result).
3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
2 Jun
Latest ONS deaths data (to week ending 21 May) has been released. 328 less deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 year average. That’s 3% lower. Year to date there have been 250,201 deaths recorded, which is 11% higher than the 2015-19 average.
1/ Image
There are 107 deaths where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate this week (the lowest since w/e 11th Sept). 66 of the deaths with COVID mentioned had it listed as the underlying cause (that's 62%).
2/ Image
Unlike recent weeks, this week is unaffected by any Bank Holiday distortions. So it's a relatively “clean” week, which we can use to judge the current underlying position.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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