Lots of losers in the French regional elex #electionsregionales2021 : ultra-low voter participation (32%); poor figures for Macron's lists; abysmal results for hard left, mostly divided left+greens. But in strategic terms:1) Le Pen's party has failed worst, below 2015 outcome. 1/
2) mainstream right (but not official LR) candidates Xavier Bertrand in the North & ValériePécresse (Paris region) did well, making each a strong right wing contender for the presidential race. The 2d round next Sunday race may yet confirm the current configuration of the...2/
...presidential race, ie 2 lead candidates with LePen enjoying a narrow lead in opinion polls in 1st round but Macron winning in 2d round. Call this Option1: this could happen if LePen's list wins or comes close to a winning triangular contest in South. But other options may...3/
...emerge. ). In Option 2, Le Pen may be so badly hurt that a mainstream right candidate (Bertrand or Pécresse) makes it to the 2d round, with unpredictable results. Option 3 is a wild card: Éric Zemmour, an extreme right media figure à la Winchell, declares his candidacy... 4/
...and sees off Le Pen facing defections in her weakened party. In effect, a Zemmour bid would be a hard-right repeat of Macron's sudden rise in 2016-17.
Today, Option 1 looks likeliest but each is possible. Note: Zemmour has been quietly organising his machine. To be followed 5/
Today, Option 1 looks likeliest but each is possible. Note: Zemmour has been quietly organising his machine. To be followed 5/
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