we were told many US states (California, Nevada, Florida, etc) and various countries around the world (Spain, Ireland, etc) were suffering from property shortages.
2/ Once artificial demand pulled back as the downturn started, it turned out we never had any shortages at all.
Many were just buying their 3rd, 5th or 13th investment property by using excessive leverage.
I assume we will get a similar, or worse outcome in the next 5 years.
3/ Excessive leverage fuels booms like nothing else,
and it typically create enormous oversupply (mortal enemy of long term prices).
I can only imagine how much malinvestment we will have to deal with once the tide pulls back and we notice many are swimming without shorts.
#Sentiment very much feels like 2011, 2015, and 2018.
The time to start paying attention to risk management is when the day stock indices continue making new record highs,
while fewer & fewer index components do NOT confirm those new highs.
Last we saw this, in February 2020, we sold a lot of our holdings.
$SPY $ACWI
The lowest quality corporate credit is signaling risky times ahead, as spreads tighten towards 2007 levels.
While no indicator is perfect, historically very tight spreads between CCC junk bonds & Treasuries have indicated euphoric sentiment and overbought public securities.
Flexibility & versatility are key traits of investors.
The ability to view the same thing from different perspectives is critically important.
Since we develop our own RE projects as well as participate via lending in others, we attempt to learn from both sides.
Examples.👇
In the post-Covid markets, it has become more important than ever for lenders (senior & mezzanine debt) to assess the true financial position of the borrower (sponsor).
Lenders should demand strong finances & ample liquidity to sidestep future potential problems...
...which are common in the world of RE development (cost overruns, slow sales & delays).
As a lender, we want to know if the developer can handle these issues without additional emergency funding?
As a developer, we want to leave ample cash on the sidelines so we don't rely...
The following just happened 30 mins ago. #truestory
My taxi driver was complaining about how difficult business has been without tourists in Malta, so he decided to take his luck with the crypto speculation.
For the whole 20 min ride, he talked to me about Etherum & Bitcoin...
...saying it has been really slow there for a while now, and since he has bills to pay, he is now focusing on DogeCoin.
A friend of his sold the taxi business & put it all into this coin — basically giving me the executive summary from A to Z why it's going to the moon.
I've learned so much about investing in my 20 min cab ride.
Now, I too will be acting on other people's tips.
The new word on the streets is Snoop Dogg & Miley Cyrus will be pumping the DogeCoin up soon.
My new taxi driver friend will be buying some tonight after his shift.