Flexibility & versatility are key traits of investors.
The ability to view the same thing from different perspectives is critically important.
Since we develop our own RE projects as well as participate via lending in others, we attempt to learn from both sides.
Examples.👇
In the post-Covid markets, it has become more important than ever for lenders (senior & mezzanine debt) to assess the true financial position of the borrower (sponsor).
Lenders should demand strong finances & ample liquidity to sidestep future potential problems...
...which are common in the world of RE development (cost overruns, slow sales & delays).
As a lender, we want to know if the developer can handle these issues without additional emergency funding?
As a developer, we want to leave ample cash on the sidelines so we don't rely...
...on future external funding sources, which often come at high costs if and when projects are delayed.
Moving along, the industry standard is for developers to set aside 5% of the construction budget as contingency lumpsum.
This helps with unplanned & unforeseen events.
As a lender, we have preferred at least a 7% contingency but often ask for 10% of building costs.
Most would think this is unnecessary, as a developer we follow the same rule.
This is why in over 25 years of rehab & construction we've never had a project bankrupt or lose money.
The cost of all commodities, including natural resources used as building materials (lumber, copper, etc) is rising rapidly.
Developers with 5% contingency might be feeling the heat, especially where we operate: luxury residential market.
The third point is regarding realistic project length expectations.
If Covid has shown us anything — especially in the UK, EU & AU markets we are active in — construction periods have seen major delays for a variety of reasons.
Site shutdowns, broad Covid lockdowns...
...supply-chain delays, delays in sales, and actual handover of dwellings.
As lenders, we are penciling in longer loan durations/facilities, instead of the traditional 24-month terms.
The key question we ask during underwriting is if the development can absorb additional...
...6-12 months of accruing interest, especially the higher cost 2nd ranking mezzanine rates which typically run at 15%+ in the UK and Australia.
As developers, we are also penciling in longer project durations — and despite the low cost of debt — we are reducing leverage levels.
The fourth and final point to touch upon is having multiple exit strategies,
since market conditions are currently disconnected from fundamentals with heavy stimulates by governments & central banks — with no promise the party will last forever.
As lenders, one of the more critical questions is whether our construction loan can be refinanced timely with a longer-term, cheaper amortized mortgage facility after practical completion (for newbies: this means the end of the construction period)?
Therefore, it is also very...
...important for us to be sitting at conservative LTV levels so a large number of sales aren't mandatory and developer exit bridging finance can come in and re-finance our construction loans with ease.
On the other hand, I already mentioned that as developers we are using...
...very little or no leverage right now.
In the luxury game leverage isn't needed if one has other edges like in-house architecture & builders, supply of expensive materials, etc.
When everything goes well, we often clear 1.5-2X MOIC after tax over 1-2 year periods (unlevered).
Furthermore, increasing valuations across many markets & regions,
where the majority of investors are jumping in at any price without much prudence,
makes us conduct our affairs with strict underwriting, demanding a larger margin of safety & far less leverage than normal.
This also means we miss out on many deals others pay a premium for and we are fine with that.
We have never made great money during booms, we are often sellers in those periods.
We have always made great money in busts, buying distress & value.
Hope this was an interesting read about how we run our capital in real estate, with a lender's hats 🎩 and a developer's 🏗 hat.
Operating on both sides helps us maintain discipline and execute our mandate.
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The following just happened 30 mins ago. #truestory
My taxi driver was complaining about how difficult business has been without tourists in Malta, so he decided to take his luck with the crypto speculation.
For the whole 20 min ride, he talked to me about Etherum & Bitcoin...
...saying it has been really slow there for a while now, and since he has bills to pay, he is now focusing on DogeCoin.
A friend of his sold the taxi business & put it all into this coin — basically giving me the executive summary from A to Z why it's going to the moon.
I've learned so much about investing in my 20 min cab ride.
Now, I too will be acting on other people's tips.
The new word on the streets is Snoop Dogg & Miley Cyrus will be pumping the DogeCoin up soon.
My new taxi driver friend will be buying some tonight after his shift.
"The average house in the UK currently costs more than eight-times average earnings (data at Dec 2020).
Before the current episode, this 8X earnings level has only been breached twice previously in the past 120 years."
"It may only be of historic curiosity, but it is interesting that house prices were even more expensive in the latter half of the nineteenth century.
They then went on a multi-decade downtrend relative to earnings. This only bottomed out after World War I."
"Three important drivers of this: more houses, smaller houses & rising incomes.
More houses: doubling in the stock of housing in the UK between 1851 and 1911. It rose from 3.8 million to 8.9 million houses – for reference, today it stands at more than 28 million."
similar to those in 1987, 1998 (in Asia), 2000-03 (in Tech), 2007-09 (worldwide), 2011-12 (EU),
there are very few assets that could deliver positive returns while many others are under pressure.
We believe litigation funding is one of them.
Most investors (myself included) would not consider such foreign investment strategies due to high entry barriers and difficulty in comprehending the conditions which would favor successful outcomes.
Getting mentors & other experienced investors to guide us, has been our key.
House price growth in northern cities and towns is continuing to outpace southern locations, including London, according to the latest UK Land Registry data.
Liverpool had risen 16.7% since the UK first went into lockdown last year.
Meanwhile...
In the City of London, the capital's financial district, prices were down 6.5% since March last year. In Westminster and Tower Hamlets, property prices were down 5% & 4.7% respectively.
Australian residential property markets are super hot, with all capital cities experiencing strong auction clearance rates and rapidly rising values.