Seigniorage is just one aspect. But a dimension that is easy to quantify. El Salvador derives no government income from 'money printing'. Most other countries, with their own independent currency, do.
This is relevant to the 'who is next' q, and will likely exclude a long list.
"normal' countries, with their own currency, can generate government revenue from their 'money printing activities'. El Salvador had to move to a dollarized system years ago, and is therefore not comparable to those with independent monetary policy.
Have a look a look at the substack spelling out these points, and please let us know your feedback.
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Tomorrow, was supposed to be the day of final reopening in the UK. But the delta variant has made policy makers more cautious, and there is now an expectation of a delay.
What is the data saying? How bad is it?
In the global picture, the UK stands out as the only European country with significant case growth.
Cases levels are still far from peak, but we have seen 2-3 weeks of >50% week-on-week growth now.
And levels are now 300% of what they were 3-4 weeks ago
Still, hospitalizations are growing more modestly. Focussing on England, they are up 50% over the last 3-4 weeks, and still at very moderate levels compared to past waves.
There has been a lot of focus this week on El Salvador becoming the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender
Is it a good idea?
Quick thread (currency risk angle)
Unsurprisingly, many hard core crypto folks have celebrated the step, as a harbinger of a global trend towards broader adoption of bitcoin/crypto (freedom even).
The piece by @DanielAlpert got me thinking a bit about US exceptionalism, as it pertains to the labor market, and the role the unemployment benefits may play.
Which country stands out in this chart?
=> some observations on income distribution and labor supply...
This is simply OECD data that tell you what percentage of jobs is less than 2/3 of median earnings.
The US is 23.4%
Belgium,N.Zealand,Finland,Italy,Denmark,Portugal all <10%
The US has an awful lot of low paying jobs (in a relative sense, but also relative to cost of living)
You can argue. 'but US is a wealthy country, and if the median is high...'. But what about the food stamps then. They would not be needed if the absolute level was fine.
There used to be little correlation between crypto and global markets in general. But the sell-off in Nasdaq futures overnight does look (very and unusually) correlated to the breakdown in crypto space
[here illustrated with BTC (green) and ETH(yellow), vs Nasdaq (white)]
The debate about bitcoin now reminds me of a wedding I went to in 2006.
A beautiful wedding that was ruined by a discussion about the US housing market.
It went like this...
1/ Back in 2007, I was at a fantastic wedding in LA. The dinner was outdoors, in spectacular weather, with a unbelievable view to the ocean. All was going well, until the discussion touched on the US housing market.
2/ I was working as an economist at Goldman Sachs at the time, and the fundamentals of the housing market looked shaky. I argued, after being asked about my opinion, that the US housing market could be in a bubble. That was a mistake.