A bit late with this one. RIP David Swensen.

Had an enormous influence on me, helping me to step outside of public securities "tunnel vision" many years ago and diversify with alternative assets.

The Yale model changed the way private money allocates.

ft.com/content/e43825…
Swensen's portfolio allocation weighting over the years.
"Mr. Swensen often blasted the excessive costs of the mutual-fund industry and the conflicts of interest on Wall Street. He bashed activist investors as value-destroying and asset-gathering managers as out for themselves."
"Mr. Swensen espoused the then-radical idea that institutional investors should de-emphasize stocks & bonds.

Investors should instead take advantage of their long time horizons to invest in hedge funds, real estate & other alternative investments, the Yale model said."

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More from @TihoBrkan

21 Jun
Technically, the Nasdaq 100 seems to have peaked in February of this year.

Sure, the index has managed marginal new highs even in recent days but seems to be losing momentum (bearish technical & breadth divergences).

$QQQ $NDX
Additionally, the economically sensitive semiconductor sector also peaked in February and has failed to make new highs since.

Worth watching closely. $SOXX
Another economically sensitive sector is Asia, especially emerging economies in this region.

A clear and decisive peak in February for the broad Asian equity index.

If the world is reopening, recovering & returning to above growth — why are global equities underperforming?
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
1/ At the top of the last real estate bubble,

we were told many US states (California, Nevada, Florida, etc) and various countries around the world (Spain, Ireland, etc) were suffering from property shortages.
2/ Once artificial demand pulled back as the downturn started, it turned out we never had any shortages at all.

Many were just buying their 3rd, 5th or 13th investment property by using excessive leverage.

I assume we will get a similar, or worse outcome in the next 5 years.
3/ Excessive leverage fuels booms like nothing else,

and it typically create enormous oversupply (mortal enemy of long term prices).

I can only imagine how much malinvestment we will have to deal with once the tide pulls back and we notice many are swimming without shorts.
Read 11 tweets
12 Jun
Where are all the bears?

#Sentiment very much feels like 2011, 2015, and 2018.
The time to start paying attention to risk management is when the day stock indices continue making new record highs,

while fewer & fewer index components do NOT confirm those new highs.

Last we saw this, in February 2020, we sold a lot of our holdings.

$SPY $ACWI
The lowest quality corporate credit is signaling risky times ahead, as spreads tighten towards 2007 levels.

While no indicator is perfect, historically very tight spreads between CCC junk bonds & Treasuries have indicated euphoric sentiment and overbought public securities.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
The most important markets and sectors peaked in February and have not made any progress for months now.

Consolidation or distribution?

Nasdaq, Semiconductors & Japan weak for some time already. $QQQ $SOXX $EWJ

Chinese Tech sector in a full crash. $KWEB
Emerging Markets and Asia struggling for a while already.

$EEM $AAXJ
Credit card companies and payment processing businesses are unable to make new highs since February of this year.

$IPAY
Read 4 tweets
16 May
1/ Been taking some time off Twitter and away from the computer.

It's so good!

As my hibernation continues, there is an inspirational story I'll share from the "real world."

Not your regular 1st world problems story, but one of REAL success and triumph.

👇
2/ Today I met a gentleman by the name of Khalid.

He was born in Eritrea, a small country in eastern Africa.

For those who aren't familiar, it is located near the Bab al Mandab Strait and boarding Ethiopia and Sudan.
3/ In the space of 30 mins, during our Bolt drive, he shared with me his life story which is probably worth a Hollywood movie script.

Personally, I had goosebumps several times and was speechless on more than one occasion while listening to his life's struggles.
Read 17 tweets
1 May
Flexibility & versatility are key traits of investors.

The ability to view the same thing from different perspectives is critically important.

Since we develop our own RE projects as well as participate via lending in others, we attempt to learn from both sides.

Examples.👇
In the post-Covid markets, it has become more important than ever for lenders (senior & mezzanine debt) to assess the true financial position of the borrower (sponsor).

Lenders should demand strong finances & ample liquidity to sidestep future potential problems...
...which are common in the world of RE development (cost overruns, slow sales & delays).

As a lender, we want to know if the developer can handle these issues without additional emergency funding?

As a developer, we want to leave ample cash on the sidelines so we don't rely...
Read 16 tweets

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