Swensen's portfolio allocation weighting over the years.
"Mr. Swensen often blasted the excessive costs of the mutual-fund industry and the conflicts of interest on Wall Street. He bashed activist investors as value-destroying and asset-gathering managers as out for themselves."
"Mr. Swensen espoused the then-radical idea that institutional investors should de-emphasize stocks & bonds.
Investors should instead take advantage of their long time horizons to invest in hedge funds, real estate & other alternative investments, the Yale model said."
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we were told many US states (California, Nevada, Florida, etc) and various countries around the world (Spain, Ireland, etc) were suffering from property shortages.
2/ Once artificial demand pulled back as the downturn started, it turned out we never had any shortages at all.
Many were just buying their 3rd, 5th or 13th investment property by using excessive leverage.
I assume we will get a similar, or worse outcome in the next 5 years.
3/ Excessive leverage fuels booms like nothing else,
and it typically create enormous oversupply (mortal enemy of long term prices).
I can only imagine how much malinvestment we will have to deal with once the tide pulls back and we notice many are swimming without shorts.
#Sentiment very much feels like 2011, 2015, and 2018.
The time to start paying attention to risk management is when the day stock indices continue making new record highs,
while fewer & fewer index components do NOT confirm those new highs.
Last we saw this, in February 2020, we sold a lot of our holdings.
$SPY $ACWI
The lowest quality corporate credit is signaling risky times ahead, as spreads tighten towards 2007 levels.
While no indicator is perfect, historically very tight spreads between CCC junk bonds & Treasuries have indicated euphoric sentiment and overbought public securities.
Flexibility & versatility are key traits of investors.
The ability to view the same thing from different perspectives is critically important.
Since we develop our own RE projects as well as participate via lending in others, we attempt to learn from both sides.
Examples.👇
In the post-Covid markets, it has become more important than ever for lenders (senior & mezzanine debt) to assess the true financial position of the borrower (sponsor).
Lenders should demand strong finances & ample liquidity to sidestep future potential problems...
...which are common in the world of RE development (cost overruns, slow sales & delays).
As a lender, we want to know if the developer can handle these issues without additional emergency funding?
As a developer, we want to leave ample cash on the sidelines so we don't rely...