Here's my rough estimates for the NYC Mayor primary:
Chance of making it to final round vs. Adams:
Garcia 47%
Wiley 37%
Yang 16%
Chance of beating Adams if they make it to the final round:
Garcia 50%
Wiley 34%
Yang 28%
Overall chances:
Adams 59%
Garcia 24%
Wiley 13%
Yang 4%
Chance of making it to final round vs. Adams:
Garcia 47%
Wiley 37%
Yang 16%
Chance of beating Adams if they make it to the final round:
Garcia 50%
Wiley 34%
Yang 28%
Overall chances:
Adams 59%
Garcia 24%
Wiley 13%
Yang 4%
An average of 6 ranked choice polls that have the Adams vs. Garcia vs. Wiley penultimate round have Garcia edging out Wiley by 1.83 points. Garcia may also get a boost here from the Yang alliance.
Yang has a chance at the final round, but his position has deteriorated recently.
Yang has a chance at the final round, but his position has deteriorated recently.
The average of ranked choice polls suggests Adams vs. Garcia would be a toss-up.
DFP had Wiley doing 12 points worse than Garcia versus Adams, while CitizenData had it at 4 pts.
Yang's best polls (Ipsos/Schoen Cooperman) still have him losing to Adams.
DFP had Wiley doing 12 points worse than Garcia versus Adams, while CitizenData had it at 4 pts.
Yang's best polls (Ipsos/Schoen Cooperman) still have him losing to Adams.
https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1407217379898138650?s=20
Yang has an outside shot of winning, but he would need a pretty decent polling error.
The theory of the case would basically be that the polls are undercounting low social trust and non-English speaking voters who may disproportionately like Yang.
The theory of the case would basically be that the polls are undercounting low social trust and non-English speaking voters who may disproportionately like Yang.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
