The NYC Mayor results we get tonight will only be first round preferences for early + election day votes (NOT absentee).

The Adams/Wiley campaigns estimated 800k-900k total turnout on the Dem side.

87k Dem absentee ballots have been returned so far out of 208k requested.

(1/4)
32% of returned absentee ballots (Democrats) are from Manhattan while 24% are from Brooklyn. The 32% is likely higher than Manhattan's share of the Democratic primary electorate while 24% is likely lower than Brooklyn's share.

vote.nyc/sites/default/…

(2/4)
Manhattan will probably be Garcia's strongest borough while Brooklyn will be one of Adams' strongest boroughs.

So based on the absentee ballot data I'd say Garcia is probably the candidate most likely to move up with absentees while Adams is most likely to move down.

(3/4)
Absentee ballots will move the needle a bit and could absolutely matter in a close race.

At the same time, there won't be a huge differential like we saw last November.

Absentees will be like 10-20% of the total vote.

And it's not like Garcia is gonna win 70% of them.

(4/4)

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More from @ryanmatsumoto1

22 Jun
Here's my rough estimates for the NYC Mayor primary:

Chance of making it to final round vs. Adams:
Garcia 47%
Wiley 37%
Yang 16%

Chance of beating Adams if they make it to the final round:
Garcia 50%
Wiley 34%
Yang 28%

Overall chances:
Adams 59%
Garcia 24%
Wiley 13%
Yang 4%
An average of 6 ranked choice polls that have the Adams vs. Garcia vs. Wiley penultimate round have Garcia edging out Wiley by 1.83 points. Garcia may also get a boost here from the Yang alliance.

Yang has a chance at the final round, but his position has deteriorated recently.
The average of ranked choice polls suggests Adams vs. Garcia would be a toss-up.

DFP had Wiley doing 12 points worse than Garcia versus Adams, while CitizenData had it at 4 pts.

Yang's best polls (Ipsos/Schoen Cooperman) still have him losing to Adams.

Read 4 tweets
27 May
I think Trump would have done about the same had COVID never happened.

Trump's net approval rating was at -9.1% on 3/1/20 and -8.0% on 11/2/20, per the @FiveThirtyEight polling average.

There also wasn't really a shift away from Trump in places that were hit hardest by COVID.

Some of the places where COVID hit hardest (NYC, RGV) actually shifted the most *towards* Trump.

Demographic trends swamped any limited anti-Trump COVID effect that might have existed.
The "COVID cost Trump the election" theory is popular for a few reasons:

- Democrats think Trump did an *awful* job - surely that should have hurt him!
- Republicans want to shift blame for losing to an external factor.

I just don't think it's very well supported by the data.
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
Forced to choose with no Tossups, I’ll go with:

Tilt D
Ossoff by 2
Warnock by 2
3 key data points to this election:

#1: Perdue edged out Ossoff by 1.78 points in the first round.
#2: Early vote data shows strong initial Democratic turnout, especially with Black voters.
#3: Polls give Democrats a *very slight* edge.

#1 favors GOP and #2/3 favor Democrats.
The ratings are based on my confidence in each side winning rather than the expected margins.

There's a lot of uncertainty in this election, and there are very strong arguments in favor of Republicans pulling this off.

Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
I would say that the strongest argument in favor of Republicans is that Perdue won the first round by 1.78 points.

The pro-D counterargument is that early voting turnout data is strong for Democrats.

(1/6)

A lot of this comes down to how revealing you think the early vote data is.

On one hand, many people have been burned by EV analysis in the past. The GOP can just show up on Election Day.

But there are a few factors that make EV potentially more interesting this time...

(2/6)
First, we have a decent baseline comparison of the November election. It's recent enough that there probably aren't a ton of people changing their minds.

This makes Early Vote analysis better than comparing 2012 to 2016, for example, when many people switched sides.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
30 Dec 20
New Georgia Senate poll from @WinWithJMC:

Ossoff 53%
Perdue 45%

Warnock 54%
Loeffler 45%

This Georgia poll also asked how/when voters plan to vote.

Just 7% said they planned to vote on Election Day.

If that actually pans out, tough to see how Republicans win given the pro-Democratic Early Vote data.

But 7% just seems REALLY low.

20% of the votes in November came on Election Day. So 7% in the runoff would be EXTREMELY low.

The crosstabs have Perdue winning the Election Day vote 84% - 16% and Loeffler winning it 78% - 22%.

If way more than 7% of votes come on Election Day, that would benefit Republicans.
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec 20
The explanation for 18 of 19 'bellwether counties' breaking their streak of voting for the winner is pretty simple.

Compared to the country as a whole, bellwether counties are substantially whiter (82% vs. 60%) and less college educated (22% vs 32%).

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
In the past, white working class voters voted more like the country as a whole, making these counties a good barometer for the country.

But in 2016, Trump made massive gains with white voters without a college degree, helping him win many bellwether counties by double-digits.
The bellwether counties actually became unrepresentative of America in 2016, when they voted 16 points to the right of the nation (versus 1 point to the left of the nation in 2012).

They only retained their bellwether status that year because Trump narrowly won the election. Image
Read 4 tweets

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