Thread by @DrEricDing

BREAKING—Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday the #DeltaVariant now accounts for ~20% of newly diagnosed cases in U.S. and **will become dominant #COVID19 strain** within weeks. FT also estimated 31%, meaning it’s doubled/tripled in 1 week!🧵 HT @Dawn_Kopecki
cnbc.com/2021/06/23/del…

2) It just exploded in the U.K. It went from a minor variant to now more than 90% of the isolates in the U.K.," Fauci said the variant has a doubling time of about two weeks and currently accounts for 20% of the isolates in the U.S., which are newly diagnosed infections.

3) "So you would expect, just the doubling time, in several weeks to a month or so it's going to be quite dominant, that's the sobering news."
The variant, first emerged in India, has quickly swept the globe. WHO officials said that delta has been found in at least 92 countries.

4) Dr. Mike Ryan, head of WHO's emergencies programs, said the variant is the fastest and fittest coronavirus strain yet, and it will "pick off" the most vulnerable people, especially in places with low #COVID19 vaccination rates.

5) Just how fast is #DeltaVariant? It is by leaps and bounds the fastest variant found to date. This is why it worries the hell out of epidemiologists. It also carries more risk of severe disease and is 1 dose vaccine problematic

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1405633531695489027

6) Is Fauci and WHO right that it will cause problems for less vaccinated areas? Yup… and just like clockwork… #DeltaVariant is causing surges again in the US where there is lower vaccinations

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1407564498739896328

7) Even Joe Biden warned last week that #DeltaVariant was especially dangerous for younger people who have the lowest vaccination rates.
"It is a variant that is more easily transmissible, potentially deadlier and particularly dangerous for young people,"

cnbc.com/2021/06/18/bid…

8) Where is the estimate that #DeltaVariant is now 31% in the US? It’s from @jburnmurdoch’s team at FT that modeled the data from @GISAID database. It also reveals several other countries with troubling increases in Delta too. See 🧵

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1406681179219189760

9) Fauci also warned on Today. “It’s the unvaccinated people that we’re concerned about…if they are unvaccinated, they are at risk.” HT @standupkid
forbes.com/sites/markjoye…

10) Fauci said while children <12 remain too young for any of the current vaccines, the best way parents can protect their kids from variants is to encourage all of those old enough to be vaccinated to get the shot and “bring the level of virus circulation in the community down”

11) Problem is many states have very low levels of “fully vaccinated”, especially the redder conservative Trump-voting states.

Note: J&J is considered “fully vaccinated” but it’s technically only 1 dose and we don’t know J&J 1 dose versus #DeltaVariant

Figure by @charles_gaba

12) Many such redder conservative states with lower vaccination rates are indeed already seeing surges. While US overall in decline, we doubt this will continue for much longer.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1407569940421525504

13) why do we doubt cases will drop for much longer? Because it’s mostly the Alpha and other variants dropping and being displaced by #DeltaVariant. We have seen this in many other countries. But this creates a temporary lull even though Delta rising underneath. See 🧵below.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1406687551616913421

14) this is actually what is happening with the #COVID19 cases — there is an exchange and displacement going on. #DeltaVariant will soon dominate the Us just like it dominated the UK 🇬🇧- which is now ~98% Delta. But there was a deceptive lull in cases during transition to Delta.

15) there is now talk of a 3rd shot… “So far the data, it’s very limited… so far the data on getting a third dose of the existing vaccines does look beneficial,” says @ScottGottliebMD on #COVID19 booster shots.

Maybe there might be variant boosters too.

16) **ONE MONTH** is all the US has until it becomes a full blown #DeltaVariant dominant country with even more soaring cases, says @Bob_Wachter. Tell your friends and neighbor to get the vaccine or else… because #DeltaVariant is merciless. It knows no political bounds.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1407319083234758658

17) Europe also has just 1-2 months until things hits the fan. EU’s CDC is warning it will goto 90% #DeltaVariant by August.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1407724768317558784

18) Heavily vaccinated Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 just set a new single day case record! Damn. And yes it’s virtually all #DeltaVariant

https://twitter.com/travellingtabby/status/1407710003297984516

19) Reminder — the #DeltaVariant is so contagious that even mere “fleeting” exposure to the virus for just “seconds” can get you infected! And this happened several time. And confirmed by both cctv security camera footage and by 🧬 genomic matching of the virus. See 🧵

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1406779894785351688

20) Annnnd we now have #DeltaPlusVariant AY.1, just upgraded to “Variant of Concern” by India 🇮🇳 Ministry of health for faster transmission, stronger binding to lung cells, and ability to reduce efficacy of certain monoclonal antibody drugs. #COVID19

Let’s end this. #vaccinate

21) Lots of J&J 1-dose vaccine questions now. We don’t know for sure. But this is interesting… Canada is now switching everyone who got AZ to now Pfizer or Moderna. See thread 🧵

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1407023672947265546

22) Now the crisis—Let this sink in—over 100 US counties right now have <20% of local population vaccinated. That is a “time bomb waiting to happen” says Dr @mtosterholm.

This #DeltaVariant surge will not end well for low vaccinations areas. #COVID19