Latest @mrcZA and @uct_news report on excess mortality released, data through 19Jun2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
A total of 173 132 excess deaths estimated since 3May2020. 3124 excess natural deaths in the week 13-19 June (prev week 2706). 90 000 since 29Dec2020.
A total of 173 132 excess deaths estimated since 3May2020. 3124 excess natural deaths in the week 13-19 June (prev week 2706). 90 000 since 29Dec2020.
2/ Nationally, natural deaths in the week more than 50% higher than expected (reminder: methodology for 2021 described here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…; methodolology for 2020 published in the SAMJ: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
3/ Very sharp increases in excess deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg metro. Gauteng deaths in the week to 19Jun2021 80% higher than expected (56% last week). City of Johannesburg deaths nearly at 2x expected for the week (99.1%).
4/ The 1114 deaths in JHB is 3rd most weekly deaths ever recorded. (p-score the 9th highest; as baseline expected deaths rises in winter).
5/ Peak in excess deaths appears to have passed a peak in FS, NW, and NC. Also continuing extremely high correlation between reported COVID-19 deaths (classified by date of reporting) and excess deaths (classified by date of death).
7/ Some additional information by age band (nationally). No evidence of substantial extra mortality from ages 5-39. Mortality for 1-4 year olds lighter than expected during hard lockdown in 2020.
8/ On the testing side, for the week to 19Jun2021, marked increases in proportion testing positive in all provinces other than NC. FS rising again. GT 32%, nationally 24%, WC 17%. Only KZN < 10%. Third wave visible in all provinces other than KZN. Please stay and be safe.
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