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9 Jun, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths through 5 June 2021 released. 167 000 natural excess deaths since 3 May 2020; half of these (83k) since 3 Jan 2021. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
We observed sharp increases in observed deaths in both Gauteng and the City of Johannesburg in the last week
Nationally, deaths in the week to 5 Jun 2021 were 28% above expected (26% previous week). p-scores remain low in EC, WC; and around 20% in Limpopo and KZN. For the 4th consecutive week, mortality in NC was more than double that expected.
The p-score decreased in the Free State.
On the testing: proportions testing positive in the week to 5 June rose in every province other than FS and NC. 3rd waves are visible in almost every province (KZN and EC, the exceptions).
Please stay safe, and take appropriate precautions.
And, if eligible, get vaccinated! (But remember that vaccination does not confer immediate protection)

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
1 Jun
Following on the recent more-than-doubling of 'official' Peruvian Covid-19 deaths (theguardian.com/world/live/202…) , perhaps a similar exercise is worth considering in South Africa? A thread ...
While officially reported Covid-19 deaths in South Africa are almost 57 000, the @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration estimates that there have been more than 160 000 excess natural deaths in the country since May 2020. /2
The evolution of those excess deaths correlates closely with both the proportions testing positive, as well as the reported deaths (when the latter are analysed according to date of death). The full report on this is here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/… /3
Read 11 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
26 May
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report out on excess deaths in South Africa, covering the week to 22 May 2021. Natural excess deaths close to 162 000 since 3 May 2020, with increment of 1 500 this last week. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… ImageImage
The adopted measure of excess mortality, the p-score - observed:expected, as a percentage, remains low, except in FS (+74% above expected), NC (+94%), NW (+31%), and - increasingly - Gauteng (+28%).
Nationally, still on the low side at +19%. Image
Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected pattern closely Image
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
22 May
The @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration that produces the weekly excess deaths report has just published a summary of mortality in South Africa for calendar year 2020. samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
Estimated deaths over the full year were 13% higher than expected. This includes the 4 months before Covid deaths became apparent, but excludes the peak of the second wave that happened in early 2021. /2
There were 70-76k excess deaths, a level equivalent to the 73 500 anticipated deaths from HIV/AIDS, the single largest cause of death in the country. /3
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
19 May
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released. 160 000 excess natural deaths 3 May 2020-15 May 2021, an increase of 1 380 since last week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report… ImageImage
p-scores (observed natural deaths as a % of expected natural deaths) have increased slightly in SA - now 17.2% higher than expected this week - and in most provinces. Northern Cape exceeds 100% extra mortality for the first time (ever). Free State remains above 50% Image
Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected trend very closely. Image
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
12 May
New weekly @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths out. 158 500 excess natural deaths from 3May20 to 8May21.

samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Relative to expected, mortality remains particularly high in NC and FS (both > 50% higher than expected).
Last week marked 1 year since we first identified excess deaths at a national level in the data. On an age-standardised basis, South Africa ranks in the top five countries for which excess deaths are
measured.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
17 Mar
New weekly @MRCza excess deaths report out. 148 500 excess natural deaths between 3 May 2020 and 13 March 2021, an increase of 1 700 in the last week.

Report available here --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess deaths nationally at 250/100k, with (after adjusting for age structure) highest in EC (405) and KZN (366). Lowest in Gauteng (171).
Some provinces (EC -- 11%, WC --11%, NW --14%) have p-scores (observed to expected deaths in the week, expressed as a %) approaching zero and in some cases at below the upper prediction bound.
Read 4 tweets

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