The @MRCza and @UCT_news collaboration that produces the weekly excess deaths report has just published a summary of mortality in South Africa for calendar year 2020. samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
Estimated deaths over the full year were 13% higher than expected. This includes the 4 months before Covid deaths became apparent, but excludes the peak of the second wave that happened in early 2021. /2
There were 70-76k excess deaths, a level equivalent to the 73 500 anticipated deaths from HIV/AIDS, the single largest cause of death in the country. /3
Impact on life expectancy very marginal - largely due to decline in deaths of very young children. /end
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Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released. 160 000 excess natural deaths 3 May 2020-15 May 2021, an increase of 1 380 since last week. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
p-scores (observed natural deaths as a % of expected natural deaths) have increased slightly in SA - now 17.2% higher than expected this week - and in most provinces. Northern Cape exceeds 100% extra mortality for the first time (ever). Free State remains above 50%
Unnatural deaths continue to follow the expected trend very closely.
Relative to expected, mortality remains particularly high in NC and FS (both > 50% higher than expected).
Last week marked 1 year since we first identified excess deaths at a national level in the data. On an age-standardised basis, South Africa ranks in the top five countries for which excess deaths are
measured.
Excess deaths nationally at 250/100k, with (after adjusting for age structure) highest in EC (405) and KZN (366). Lowest in Gauteng (171).
Some provinces (EC -- 11%, WC --11%, NW --14%) have p-scores (observed to expected deaths in the week, expressed as a %) approaching zero and in some cases at below the upper prediction bound.
New @mrcZA excess deaths report released today. 132 000 excess natural deaths from 3/5/20 to 30/1/21, up 7 000 from last week, a substantial reduction from the the 15.7k in week 2 and 12.5k in week 3.
50k excess deaths since 27/12/20.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Sharp reductions in excess deaths nationally, and in all provinces (e.g. ZA and WC)
p-scores (observed deaths::expected deaths) continue to decline in every province:
Quite a few people have been sharing a copy of part of a South African death certificate #onhere, (including some medical practitioners) claiming that this shows that Covid deaths are being exaggerated, misidentified, and misreported. A thread on Cause of Death Certification. /1
2/ What was being shared? Let’s look at one of the images.
3/ The Notification of Death form in South Africa, DHA1663, is in two parts. A sample can be found on pp9-12 of this document: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
New SAMRC Excess Deaths report is out, covering the period to 5 Jan 2021. 83 918 estimates excess natural deaths since 6 May 2020. Mortality in the last week of 2020 (starting 30 Dec) 193% higher than normal in WC; 220% higher in KZN; 131% nationally.
Ridgeplot showing provincial p-scores by province and week.